DoND: Will Anyone *Ever* Win a Million?

[MrBuddwing]

It seems the only way a contestant will win $1,000,000 is to have an astonishing run of luck and narrow the cases down to $1,000,000 and $750,000, or maybe $1,000,000 and $500,000. Or $1,000,000 and $300,000.

I don't see anyone going for the $1,000,000 with a lesser amount in the other case. There's too much money at stake.

WWTBaM has had a bunch of millionaires (OK, the first one, John Carpenter, got an absurdly easy stack). But it may be a long time before we see a millionaire on DoND.

Just my .03.

[Craig Karlberg]

The first initial series of WWTBAM(August 1999) didn't produce a millionaire but a $500K winner in Shutterly.  It was in its return in November of that same year that John Carpenter became the first all-cash millionaire on US television.

Comparing that to DoND, the highest ammount won was at least $250K back in its first week last December.  Now, since its return after the Olympics, the highest ammount won was $407K.  A slow progression but yeah, it's much harder to win the top prize here as opposed to Millionaire during its initial runs.  Let's not lose faith on this just yet.  We still have a few more weeks at least to see if it's won befire the syndie version might get going next year.

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'MrBuddwing\' date=\'Mar 24 2006, 11:01 PM\']Just my .03.

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And worth as much. Have you SEEN these contestants? Someone will ABSOLUTELY go for it.

[MrBuddwing]

[quote name=\'clemon79\' date=\'Mar 25 2006, 06:28 AM\'][quote name=\'MrBuddwing\' date=\'Mar 24 2006, 11:01 PM\']Just my .03.

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And worth as much. Have you SEEN these contestants? Someone will ABSOLUTELY go for it.

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Yes, I've seen these contestants - some of whom were pronounced "stupid" by members of this forum for not quitting at something like $76,000 because they didn't realize ahead of time they were going to open up the top-value cases and lose virtually everything.

Hey, I'm one of the smartest people in the world with the benefit of hindsight.

Howie Mandel has fantasized about a scenario in which the contestant is down to two cases: $1,000,000 and .01. Deal or no deal? MAYBE some contestant will go for it, but I don't THINK so.

[beatlefreak84]

Hey; with this show, especially given the contestants, anything is possible.  I mean, come on; a few years ago, some nutcase on some trivia show risked $200,000 to either go home with $2.2 million or nothing...No offense, Dan Avila....

Granted, comparing a trivia show to a complete luck show may not be the best comparison in the world.  However, I think that shows some people may be willing to risk hundreds of thousands of dollars for just a little more.  The way I see it, somebody may say, "Well, I came with nothing, so I may as well just go all the way."  Heck; we've seen some people essentially say that already!

Anthony

[Speedy G]

Howie Mandel has fantasized about a scenario in which the contestant is down to two cases: $1,000,000 and .01. Deal or no deal? MAYBE some contestant will go for it, but I don't THINK so.

At least half of these contestants would no deal such a thing.  They'd make some vacuous comment about "came with nothing, leaving with nothing, lost nothing" or "this is a tremendous opportunity" or some other baloney.

Would you wager your next two years' salary on a single roll of the dice?  That's what most of these contestants are essentially doing.  Sane people when presented with six-figure sums of money would think "I could do so much with this money" and quit.

I would even go as far as to say that, barring some giant 180 in the contestant selection, DoND USA will give away the big one within the first 100 games.  With the way these contestants have shown a willingness to walk through minefields, someone's going to look at the million on the board, say to themselves "it could be me", and it will be.

[Matt Ottinger]

[quote name=\'Speedy G\' date=\'Mar 25 2006, 02:57 PM\']Would you wager your next two years' salary on a single roll of the dice?  That's what most of these contestants are essentially doing.  Sane people when presented with six-figure sums of money would think "I could do so much with this money" and quit.[/quote]
That's not the question, because my next two years' salary is not at risk.  People gamble with their own money all the time.  The lucky few who get a chance to play this game aren't going to lose the farm if they make a bad decision.  

It really is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and just because you don't think you'd be comfortable with high-stakes house-money gambling doesn't mean that these players are crazy because they're willing to try.

[Ian Wallis]

Howie Mandel has fantasized about a scenario in which the contestant is down to two cases: $1,000,000 and .01. Deal or no deal? MAYBE some contestant will go for it, but I don't THINK so.

In that senario you'd think the bank offer would be close to the half-way mark, but I wonder if they'd purposely low-ball it to make the contestant go for it.  It's been said they have a pre-set range for every possibility, but I'd love to know what the low figure would be on that particular range.

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'Ian Wallis\' date=\'Mar 26 2006, 12:35 PM\']In that senario you'd think the bank offer would be close to the half-way mark, but I wonder if they'd purposely low-ball it to make the contestant go for it.  It's been said they have a pre-set range for every possibility, but I'd love to know what the low figure would be on that particular range.

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It's an interesting mathematical exercise, so let's make some really basic assumptions and look at it.

Let's take ten contestants. Let's also make the (entirely hypothetical and non-scientific) assumption that the likelihood of a player to deal is exactly the same as the percentage of the top prize the bank offer is.

So, with a .01 / $1,000,000 situation, the average amount the players who elect to play on are going to win is $500,000, right? 'Cuz half of the time they will have the Big One, and the other half of the time they will have the monkey.

Which means, using this (again, entirely unscientific and basic) system, we get:

$500,000 bank offer: Five players Deal (for a total of $2,500,000), and five play on (also winning an average total of $2,500,000). Total payout over the long run: $5,000,000.

$300,000 bank offer: Three players Deal (for a total of $900,000), and seven play on (for an average total of $3,500,000). Total: $4,400,000.

So, yeah, doesn't make sense financially. That said, there is a psychological factor that comes into play, too: In the $500K offer scenario, on average 7.5 of the 10 contestants go home happy. In the $300K one, it's only 6.5. And happy contestants make for good television, especially on a show where the producers have already played the heartstrings card several times. So that might enter into it too.

(Also note that this is assuming contestants who are playing the game entirely mathematically. And we know the contestant selection process is skewing towards people who play at least somewhat recklessly. So the gap between expected payout on bank offers is probably a LITTLE larger than we think, as is the gap between "happy endings".)

[Robert Hutchinson]

Another problem with lowballing the bank offer at the end is that it contradicts Howie's constant reminders that eliminating small amounts makes the bank offers go up, as well as the audience's general expectations. If you have a penny and a million left, and you offer the contestant $300K, few viewers are going to think "ah, they're daring the contestant to say No Deal." Most of them are going to think "that should be $500K! What the hell!"

[Don Howard]

[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' date=\'Mar 25 2006, 10:55 PM\']It really is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and just because you don't think you'd be comfortable with high-stakes house-money gambling doesn't mean that these players are crazy because they're willing to try.

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Considering the ilk of the average (not all of them--the average) contestant, I tend to agree with this assessment.
Get a picture in your minds' eyes of the breed of human you see on Deal Or No Deal and ask yourselves, "Is this a person we'd see on Jeopardy!? If so, is this person likely to win 74 times and get over $2M on that show?"
Nope, this studio is quite likely their only shot at free money without risk to their own. Those among you who've been on three or five or ten games may one day get on yet another. Many, most, if not all of that bunch probably won't. So here's their chance at the ring of brass and common sense be thrown to the wind----they're taking their "$1,000,000 chance of a lifetime".
And after flunking the J! three times and having five different announcers refuse to call my name in six visits to The Price Is Right, I'm thinking of putting my acting face on and trying out for this show while it's still hot and on the air a lot.
And, who knows, the night I'm on Pat O'Brien might be watching.

[GS Warehouse]

[quote name=\'clemon79\' date=\'Mar 26 2006, 04:12 PM\']... the other half of the time they will have the monkey. ...

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[/quote][snickers] Sorry, but I couldn't help myself.  Either you've got Ken Jennings on the brain, or this is the proposed fall spinoff Ape or No Ape.

Seriously, wasn't there a recent game where the last two amounts where $5,000 and one of the two-figure values?  If so, the average should be $2,550 at most.  The bank offer was $2,800, so that was a Deal situation (and I do remember the contestant did deal).

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'GS Warehouse\' date=\'Mar 26 2006, 06:41 PM\'][quote name=\'clemon79\' date=\'Mar 26 2006, 04:12 PM\']... the other half of the time they will have the monkey. ...

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[/quote][snickers] Sorry, but I couldn't help myself.  Either you've got Ken Jennings on the brain, or this is the proposed fall spinoff Ape or No Ape.
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Actually, it was a reference to the Australian version, where the 50c case has a picture of a cartoon monkey on it. I've been told (but wouldn't mind confirming with someone in more authority to do so) that if a player actually wins the 50c a monkey comes out on stage to pay them off directly.

[Ian Wallis]

Another problem with lowballing the bank offer at the end is that it contradicts Howie's constant reminders that eliminating small amounts makes the bank offers go up, as well as the audience's general expectations. If you have a penny and a million left, and you offer the contestant $300K, few viewers are going to think "ah, they're daring the contestant to say No Deal."

A lot of it would probably depend on what amount was just eliminated to get down to a penny and a million.  If he just eliminated another six-figure amount to be left with that senario, they could low-ball it a bit because they'd probably figure he's going to say "Deal" on the next offer no matter what it was.

[GS Warehouse]

[quote name=\'clemon79\' date=\'Mar 26 2006, 10:15 PM\']Actually, it was a reference to the Australian version, where the 50c case has a picture of a cartoon monkey on it. I've been told (but wouldn't mind confirming with someone in more authority to do so) that if a player actually wins the 50c a monkey comes out on stage to pay them off directly.

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Didn't know that.  Snicker rescinded.