What Would You Do?

[parliboy]

[quote name=\'b_masters9\' post=\'130676\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 09:17 PM\']
Here's another one-- in "Grand Game", what would you do if, having made it to $1000, you were given the choice of taking that and stopping or risking it against picking the last item that was under the target price (which, I believe, is the choice that is always given in that game)?

Me, I'd say,

<Snipped a really long explanation as to why you'd stop>
[/quote]

To each their own.  But given the EV and the fact that it's cash versus cash, I'm going for it.

[TLEberle]

[quote name=\'b_masters9\' post=\'130676\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 07:17 PM\']
Here's another one-- in "Grand Game", what would you do if, having made it to $1000, you were given the choice of taking that and stopping or risking it against picking the last item that was under the target price (which, I believe, is the choice that is always given in that game)?[/quote]The thing is, this is less interesting than the Let 'em Win dilemma that Mark originally posed.

1) You're being paid 9:1 for a 1-in-3 chance, and that's if you were to pick blindly.
2) You're not picking blindly. Of the three remaining items, one of them will be less than the target price. Choose the least expensive item to win $10,000. I will take that option daily, twice on Sunday and three times on a national holiday. $1,000? Barely going to cover expenses to get to 33 after taxes. $10,000? Not gonna change my life substantially, really, but it's still a nice enough chunk of change that I'd take the flyer. And I'm one of the most risk-averse people I know.

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'b_masters9\' post=\'130676\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 07:17 PM\']
Me, I'd say, "Bob, I'm really not sure, as I've never played this game here before, much less any game, but I believe that I should stand and take the $1000 I already have, because any one of them could go either way. I don't want to risk $1000 against a 1/3 shot of winning $10,000 or a 2/3 shot of losing the $1000. If I stand, I have $1000, but if I risk and I am wrong, just like you said, I lose the $1000, but then again, there is a $10,000 prize to be won; it is still probably not worth the risk to me though."
[/quote]
And then Dobkowitz would have to replace that playing of Card Game later in the show with Double Prices, after you left the show running way heavy with that ridiculously obvious and completely insight-free "observation".

(Of course, more likely, when you babbled on endlessly in your interview out in line, you would be passed over for yet-another-someone in a BOB ROOLZ shirt. For a change, it would be the correct decision.)

[Dbacksfan12]

[quote name=\'JasonA1\' post=\'130604\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 11:14 AM\']
I think we had a thread similar to this not too long ago, or at the very least an offshot discussion from a recap.
[/quote]
It was attempted, but a certain person who likes gelitan prevented any worthwhile discussion.

Anyhow, my apologies for not double checking.

[b_masters9]

[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'130689\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 11:44 PM\']
[quote name=\'b_masters9\' post=\'130676\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 07:17 PM\']
Me, I'd say, "Bob, I'm really not sure, as I've never played this game here before, much less any game, but I believe that I should stand and take the $1000 I already have, because any one of them could go either way. I don't want to risk $1000 against a 1/3 shot of winning $10,000 or a 2/3 shot of losing the $1000. If I stand, I have $1000, but if I risk and I am wrong, just like you said, I lose the $1000, but then again, there is a $10,000 prize to be won; it is still probably not worth the risk to me though."
[/quote]
And then Dobkowitz would have to replace that playing of Card Game later in the show with Double Prices, after you left the show running way heavy with that ridiculously obvious and completely insight-free "observation".

(Of course, more likely, when you babbled on endlessly in your interview out in line, you would be passed over for yet-another-someone in a BOB ROOLZ shirt. For a change, it would be the correct decision.)
[/quote]

Well, if that be the case, then I'd cut down on it and say, "I'm sticking with the $1000." If the audience tries to get me to go, Bob would probably say "It's not your money-- it's his money."

[Dbacksfan12]

[quote name=\'b_masters9\' post=\'130676\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 07:17 PM\']
Well, if that be the case, then I'd cut down on it and say, "I'm sticking with the $1000." If the audience tries to get me to go, Bob would probably say "It's not your money-- it's his money."
[/quote]
And then everyone at home would be thinking what a nutless wimp you are.

Cripes...if you aren't smart enough to identify which of three products costs least, my fervent hope would be that you also spin .05 and then $1.00 on the wheel.

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'b_masters9\' post=\'130742\' date=\'Sep 8 2006, 02:32 PM\']
Well, if that be the case, then I'd cut down on it and say, "I'm sticking with the $1000." If the audience tries to get me to go, Bob would probably say "It's not your money-- it's his money."
[/quote]
Anyone else here having an Ed Grimley moment, or is it just me?

[MikeK]

[quote name=\'b_masters9\' post=\'130742\' date=\'Sep 8 2006, 05:32 PM\']Well, if that be the case, then I'd cut down on it and say, "I'm sticking with the $1000." If the audience tries to get me to go, Bob would probably say "It's not your money-- it's his money."[/quote]
Time for basic statistics/probability with Mr. Klauss.

The likelihood of picking the item under $x.xx at that stage is 1/3.  If you can easily eliminate one item, it's now 1/2.  Your expected value (EV mentioned earlier) is (1/3)($10,000) + (2/3)($0), which is $3333.33.  That means if you play on, theoretical probability says you should make $2333.33 each time you play.  If you can remove with certainty one item from the three given, your EV jumps to $5000, a gain of $4000.

It's worth the gamble, especially when you consider that $1000 after taxes would barely cover expenses, if at all after you include the taxes which you'll have to pay on the prize which got you on stage.  Going on makes for good TV as well.

If you want to stop, that's your prerogative.  Your game play strategy is absolutely horrible.  You don't have to have big brass balls to play on when the likelihood of you winning is no worse than 1 in 3.

[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'130760\' date=\'Sep 8 2006, 06:50 PM\']Anyone else here having an Ed Grimley moment, or is it just me?[/quote]
I don't know.  Does he have a framed picture of Pat Sajak hanging in his living room? :-)

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'MikeK\' post=\'130761\' date=\'Sep 8 2006, 03:55 PM\']
Time for basic statistics/probability with Mr. Klauss.
...
If you want to stop, that's your prerogative.  Your game play strategy is absolutely horrible.  You don't have to have big brass balls to play on when the likelihood of you winning is no worse than 1 in 3.
[/quote]
You're giving him credit for having way more of a clue than he does, I think.

[MikeK]

[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'130765\' date=\'Sep 8 2006, 07:31 PM\']You're giving him credit for having way more of a clue than he does, I think.[/quote]
I had that feeling.  It was worth a shot.

[TheGameShowGuy]

I'd keep the cash...
I love my year old Saturn Vue and $7,500 is great... I'd even keep $3,500!!

[Terry K]

Frankly, I don't want a Ford product, period.  (the attitude of a few ford dealers did me in from ever buying another Ford)

If the vehicle is a Jeep, I'd sure try for it.  Jeep makes a quality product that holds its resale value.

[J.R.]

I would always take the cash at any opportunity I could (But I would gamble the $1000 on "Grand Game").

I would, in fact, pick the largest numbers on "Money Game" so I could just win the money!

-Joe R.