Today I was playing the Pressman home game with a few folks around here, and one guy actually decided to take the "banker's" first offer of less than $3000 and bail out early. Had he stayed to the end, he'd have netted much, much more. On the opposite end of things, we finished the game with myself as the contestant, and I eventually got down to three cases (including the one I picked as mine) having $75,000, $500,000 and the $1K. I decided to turn down my "banker's" last six-figure offer and open one last case, figuring whichever amount would go, I'd still be in pretty good shape. Off went the $500,000. I then decided to make a gutsy decision to go all the way, and not trade cases. The result? Well, if this had been the actual show, I'd have made DoND history.
Realistically, the only way anyone will get the million on TV is if they're lucky enough to have their last three amounts be the million and any two six-figure amounts higher than maybe $200,000, then figure they'd be well off enough with any of those figures to risk losing the million and go all the way, and luck is on their side with a vengeance.
Of course, there's always the possibility that someone could end up with the board showing the million and $50 or less, and then get REAL gutsy and go on, and then be REALLY lucky...but don't hold your breath for that to happen.