[quote name=\'Joe Mello\' post=\'158840\' date=\'Jul 27 2007, 01:53 PM\']If we try put this into context of the game, let's think about this. Chances are, the 10% range that you set is half above and half below what you think the actual percentage is. If you're right, then the natural assumption is that your hunch is correct, eliminating some of the "outlier" values, narrowing your range of guesses from 10 to about 5 or 6, provided you're still confident about your original estimate and you aren't so bullheaded as to think you were exactly right all along. This bumps up your "chance" of winning to a more tolerable level, and almost akin to answering a question on Millionaire.[/quote]
This really doesn't make a lot of sense to me. If all you're being told is that you're within the range you've selected, then that's all you know. There's nothing "bullheaded" about going with the exact figure you had in mind all along. The question hasn't changed, and it's therefore as good a choice as any.