Now this is a DoND stunt that I like...

[weaklink75]

They're going on a world tour....

[tvwxman]

[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'179008\' date=\'Feb 26 2008, 11:06 AM\']
They're going on a world tour....
[/quote]
I assume these are three formats that look very similarly to ours, and not at all like the Aussie, Italy, French or UK versions, which have different payouts, much different formats, and different sets (no bimbos).

That's too bad. But it is a neat idea nonetheless.

[Matt Ottinger]

The article has some interesting things to say about their Million Dollar Mission as well, including the fact that they saw a ratings bump, and that they plan to do it again in the fall.  They also push the falacy that 13 cases means a 50/50 chance that someone will win the million.  It certainly gives you great, even absurd odds, better than any other game show on the air no doubt, but it's still less than 50/50.

[MSTieScott]

[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' post=\'179014\' date=\'Feb 26 2008, 12:19 PM\']They also push the falacy that 13 cases means a 50/50 chance that someone will win the million.  It certainly gives you great, even absurd odds, better than any other game show on the air no doubt, but it's still less than 50/50.[/quote]Which makes me want to ask a question to the math-heads out there...

Assuming that no contestant is going to deal when there are two or more $1,000,000 cases still in play, what are the odds of eliminating all thirteen tiny amounts while still keeping two or more $1,000,000 cases in play?

--
Scott Robinson
(especially if the Banker is never going to give out an offer over $500,000 regardless of the ratio of million-dollar cases to small-amount cases...)

[dale_grass]

[quote name=\'MSTieScott\' post=\'179016\' date=\'Feb 26 2008, 02:58 PM\']
Assuming that no contestant is going to deal when there are two or more $1,000,000 cases still in play, what are the odds of eliminating all thirteen tiny amounts while still keeping two or more $1,000,000 cases in play?
[/quote]

That's an interesting prospect.  Suppose there were, say, six cases left, all with the million.  Would the show end right there, or would they go through the motions?  How about the bank offers?  I'd augment it a little: you can keep your $1,000,000, or walk with $2,000,000 if you kick Howie in the groin and shout "What's the frequency, Kenneth?"

Just a thought.

[rugrats1]

[quote name=\'dale_grass\' post=\'179018\' date=\'Feb 26 2008, 02:18 PM\']
Suppose there were, say, six cases left, all with the million.  Would the show end right there, or would they go through the motions?  How about the bank offers?[/quote]

I think they would end the game right there and call it a game, with the contestant the newest millionaire. There were a couple of times in this past M$M where a contestant had 2 $1M cases and a small case on the board; in these cases, Howie mentioned that if the small amount got picked off, the contestant automatically won the million -- end of game. In both these instances, however, the contestants picked off a million.

[Brakus]

When they go to the Philippines, I wonder if Howie's going to host it or Kris Aquino is going to.... or will Howie play the game for a home viewer while Kris Aquino hosts it.

"PRESS THE BUTTON IT'S YOURS! SAY NO WE OPEN ONE CASE! IS IT A DEAL OR NO DEAL!"

*shudder*

[Fedya]

Assuming that no contestant is going to deal when there are two or more $1,000,000 cases still in play, what are the odds of eliminating all thirteen tiny amounts while still keeping two or more $1,000,000 cases in play?

This boils down to randomly selecting two cases, each with $1M, at the start of the game.  The probability of that is:

13/26 * 12/25 = 6/25 = 24%

I say it boils down to that because it's the same as selecting the one you hold, and selecting which one you're going to open last from the remaining 25.

The chances of the last three cases having the $1M is 6/25 * 11/24 = 11/100.

[Matt Ottinger]

[quote name=\'Fedya\' post=\'179029\' date=\'Feb 26 2008, 02:58 PM\']

Assuming that no contestant is going to deal when there are two or more $1,000,000 cases still in play, what are the odds of eliminating all thirteen tiny amounts while still keeping two or more $1,000,000 cases in play?

This boils down to randomly selecting two cases, each with $1M, at the start of the game.  The probability of that is:

13/26 * 12/25 = 6/25 = 24%[/quote]
I figured there was an easy way to get there, and that makes perfect sense.  But if that's right, then the odds on winning the million, even with 13 cases in play, is actually less than one in four, since nobody in his right mind is going to turn down $500,000 to go all the way.

[clemon79]

The problem here is that we're mixing up the concepts of "odds" and "likelyhood". The *odds* of it happening are just as Ted says, 24%. The problem is that some people here are trying to figure out the *likelyhood* of it happening, and there is no way to attach a solid number to that, since one of the factors to figuring that is whether or not a contestant will bail before the ride comes to a complete stop, and that is a) impossible to determine conclusively, and b) largely within the control of the contestant coordinators. Want to milk the MDM for another sweeps period? Cast the most risk-averse people you can find.

Really, Matt's "less than 24%" is as exact an answer as you're going to be able to find here.

[Chuck Sutton]

[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' post=\'179014\' date=\'Feb 26 2008, 12:19 PM\']
The article has some interesting things to say about their Million Dollar Mission as well, including the fact that they saw a ratings bump, and that they plan to do it again in the fall.  They also push the falacy that 13 cases means a 50/50 chance that someone will win the million.  It certainly gives you great, even absurd odds, better than any other game show on the air no doubt, but it's still less than 50/50.
[/quote]


No, the odds the last two weeks are exactly 50/50 you will win a million.  The question is how much they have to pay you to give up that 50/50 chance.

[TLEberle]

[quote name=\'Chuck Sutton\' post=\'179039\' date=\'Feb 26 2008, 01:04 PM\']No, the odds the last two weeks are exactly 50/50 you will win a million.  The question is how much they have to pay you to give up that 50/50 chance.[/quote]C:\picard.exe

People like you can't exist in the wild. They just can't.

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'TLEberle\' post=\'179046\' date=\'Feb 26 2008, 01:24 PM\']
People like you can't exist in the wild. They just can't.
[/quote]
Except he's *right*. (And you KNOW how much it kills me to admit that.) If you remove the undefinable "probability of riding the storm out," it's a straight 50/50 shot.

The problem is that you can't remove that, and you can't quantify that.

[MikeK]

[quote name=\'Brakus\' post=\'179021\' date=\'Feb 26 2008, 02:34 PM\']
When they go to the Philippines, I wonder if Howie's going to host it or Kris Aquino is going to.... or will Howie play the game for a home viewer while Kris Aquino hosts it.[/quote]
Maybe Howie will scream "EIGHT THOUSAND PESOS!  LETTER!"  Oops, wrong Kris Aquino show.

[itiparanoid13]

I'm not really shocked, but a bit saddened that they didn't attempt to try one of the daytime sets, like the British one.  The syndicated version is essentially going to be the British version (22 cases, $250K, contestants holding cases), and I would have figured it would be a nice way to at least test the waters.