Author Topic: Fall '08 GS prediction thread... (Read 7208 times)

weaklink75 · « **on:** August 13, 2008, 11:13:52 AM »

So we've gotten a lot of news about changes on WoF, TPIR (possibly), and WWTBAM. Plus we have DoND going to syndication, and the news that primetime will give away the big one at some point. So let's predict some things, shall we?

1- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on Wheel of Fortune this season.

(I say yes- since the million dollar wedge is on the wheel for the first three rounds, I would think it would get picked up relatively often. Keeping it till the end of the game and then landing on the million dollar envelope and solving the puzzle is a different story, but the odds aren't that outrageous...though I suspect we might see a couple of million dollar LOSSES this season as well)

2- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on WWTBAM this season.

(I also say yes- it's been a while, I think we're probably due for one- but all the rules changes do give me a little pause)

3- YES or NO- DoND will give away the top prize in a NORMAL game (no extra top prize case gimmicks) in either Syndicated or primetime this season.

(I say no- the odds of the layout in a standard game being favorable to go for it are too low)

4- YES or NO- Someone will win at least $500,000 in normal gameplay on J! this season.

(I say no- we might get a hot streak by someone, but you probably need 20+ wins to get that much, and I don't know if someone can go that long again)

5- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader or Don't Forget the Lyrics this season.

(I say yes, and it's more likely to happen on 5th Grader since you get more information- at least the subject of the MDQ- before you have to make the decision to go for the million)

6-YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Million Dollar Password or TPIR MDS...

(I say no- TPIR is more likely, but the shrinking of the value in the showcase to win the million from $1000 to $500 will make it a lot more difficult)

7- YES or NO- At least one NEW Game Show (one that has not aired on a major network before in this era) will debut during the season.

(I say no- UNLESS the actors end up striking, then you might see it happen)..

xavier45 · « **Reply #1 on:** August 13, 2008, 11:46:20 AM »

[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 11:13 AM\']
6-YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Million Dollar Password or TPIR MDS...
[/quote]
Buzzerblog reported that on the next run of MDP, $250,000 will be a safe haven. So pretty much, everybody who wins $250,000 will be going for the million. But it will still be quite hard to win it with some of those words.

clemon79 · « **Reply #2 on:** August 13, 2008, 11:58:14 AM »

[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 08:13 AM\']
(I say yes- since the million dollar wedge is on the wheel for the first three rounds, I would think it would get picked up relatively often.[/quote]
It's a single slot, right?

How often does the $10,000 get won?

Great. Now divide that by eight. (Figure multiply by three rounds because it will be out there longer, and then divide by 24 for the chances of spinning it on the bonus wheel.) And then realize that because whoever gets it has to avoid Bankrupt for the rest of the show AND win the game, the odds are even a good bit poorer than THAT.

BrandonFG · « **Reply #3 on:** August 13, 2008, 12:25:36 PM »

[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 11:13 AM\']
7- YES or NO- At least one NEW Game Show (one that has not aired on a major network before in this era) will debut during the season.
[/quote]
Do foreign imports count? ;-)

IMO, your other scenarios seem a bit too open-ended for me to make a guess either way. However, on this one, I will at least vote yes. The genre is popular again, and if the networks can save a buck on programming, they will go for a timeslot, esp. if a show tanks early, and you know one will. And don't forget, GSN has trotted out more and more original games over the past few years, so I think they might have a new concept up their sleeve.

And like you mentioned, with a possibly impending strike, it's very likely.

weaklink75 · « **Reply #4 on:** August 13, 2008, 12:56:18 PM »

[quote name=\'fostergray82\' post=\'193900\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 12:25 PM\']
[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 11:13 AM\']
7- YES or NO- At least one NEW Game Show (one that has not aired on a major network before in this era) will debut during the season.
[/quote]
Do foreign imports count? ;-)

IMO, your other scenarios seem a bit too open-ended for me to make a guess either way. However, on this one, I will at least vote yes. The genre is popular again, and if the networks can save a buck on programming, they will go for a timeslot, esp. if a show tanks early, and you know one will. And don't forget, GSN has trotted out more and more original games over the past few years, so I think they might have a new concept up their sleeve.

And like you mentioned, with a possibly impending strike, it's very likely.
[/quote]

Another thing is they're running out of ideas.....

tpirfan28 · « **Reply #5 on:** August 13, 2008, 01:04:10 PM »

[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 11:13 AM\']
1- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on Wheel of Fortune this season.
2- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on WWTBAM this season.
3- YES or NO- DoND will give away the top prize in a NORMAL game (no extra top prize case gimmicks) in either Syndicated or primetime this season.
4- YES or NO- Someone will win at least $500,000 in normal gameplay on J! this season.
5- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader or Don't Forget the Lyrics this season.
6-YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Million Dollar Password or TPIR MDS...
7- YES or NO- At least one NEW Game Show (one that has not aired on a major network before in this era) will debut during the season.
[/quote]
1) Yes. And I'll call February Sweeps.
2) No. I bet we'll see a couple million-dollar questions, though.
3) No.
4) Yes. And there will be daily Ken Jennings comparisons, too.
5) No.
6) Yes, on TPIR, and I'll call on One Away or Cover Up.
7) Only if it gives Ant and Dec something better than Wanna Bet.

parliboy · « **Reply #6 on:** August 13, 2008, 01:23:13 PM »

[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 10:13 AM\']1- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on Wheel of Fortune this season.[/quote]
More likely No. The odds of holding the wedge at the end is slightly better than the odds of holding the wild card (the only difference being the ability to spend the wild card). Given that, it's more likely than not that there will be a time this year when the million is landed on. But given the bonus round win rate, that time is more likely to be a loss.

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2- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on WWTBAM this season.

No. As long as the ratings hold up, no one's in a rush to give away a million dollars

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3- YES or NO- DoND will give away the top prize in a NORMAL game (no extra top prize case gimmicks) in either Syndicated or primetime this season.

Yes. The American contestants are less risk-averse than the Brits, and given the way things go on their show, I can see it happen.

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4- YES or NO- Someone will win at least $500,000 in normal gameplay on J! this season.

No, for the reasons that you stated

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5- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader or Don't Forget the Lyrics this season.

No. Not enough shows in either series for it to be LIKELY. Though it certainly is possible.

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6-YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Million Dollar Password or TPIR MDS...

Yes. The $500 range makes the game more difficult, but remember that one of the two showcase wins was within $500. Also, they've made the $1,000,000 in Password much more attainable for next season. For any other show, I'd hate this. But since you're beholden to a celebrity, I'm actually OK with the attempt at the $1,000,000 as a true bonus round.

Quote

7- YES or NO- At least one NEW Game Show (one that has not aired on a major network before in this era) will debut during the season.

Yes, because we already know about some that will. Pay attention to the news, my friend.

MikeK · « **Reply #7 on:** August 13, 2008, 02:15:01 PM »

[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 11:13 AM\']1- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on Wheel of Fortune this season.
2- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on WWTBAM this season.
3- YES or NO- DoND will give away the top prize in a NORMAL game (no extra top prize case gimmicks) in either Syndicated or primetime this season.
4- YES or NO- Someone will win at least $500,000 in normal gameplay on J! this season.
5- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader or Don't Forget the Lyrics this season.
6-YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Million Dollar Password or TPIR MDS...
7- YES or NO- At least one NEW Game Show (one that has not aired on a major network before in this era) will debut during the season.[/quote]
1: No. Avoiding the bankrupts, winning the game with the million wedge adding nothing to your score, and then hitting a 1 in 24 shot is too much to happen. Discarding Mr. Lemon's logic since I don't think it's accurate and it has too many holes, how many times has the wild card made it to bonus land in the last year? Take that number and divide it by 24. That would be a fairer estimate on how many people land on the million in the bonus round.
2: No. It hasn't happened in 5 years. I don't see anything changing that trend.
3: Yes. With lower stakes on the syndicated version, I can see someone taking the risk.
4: No.
5: Yes, on 5th Grader. DFTL's million dollar song is too much of a crap shoot.
6: No.
7: Yes. I have a hunch a flavor of the month in early '09 will be Golden Balls, another game requiring no knowledge and utilizes the Friend or Foe trust box method to determine the winner(s). Outside of the split/steal final round and lengthy rounds of theorizing about who's lying, I've enjoyed what I've seen of Golden Balls.

weaklink75 · « **Reply #8 on:** August 13, 2008, 02:19:21 PM »

[quote name=\'parliboy\' post=\'193904\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 01:23 PM\']

Yes, because we already know about some that will. Pay attention to the news, my friend.
[/quote]

I probably should have been more specific...I meant to say a show on one of the Big 4 3/4 networks (CW is a half a network at best, My Network TV is a 1/4 of one...)

I agree about Golden Balls as well...if you tweaked the final round a little it would be really interesting I think (say if both decide to steal in the final, the two people who were eliminated earlier split the final total instead)- and imagine if Fox picked it up what the commercials would be like- double entendres everywhere...

Mr. Armadillo · « **Reply #9 on:** August 13, 2008, 02:27:02 PM »

[quote name=\'MikeK\' post=\'193906\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 01:15 PM\']
1: No. Avoiding the bankrupts, winning the game with the million wedge adding nothing to your score, and then hitting a 1 in 24 shot is too much to happen. Discarding Mr. Lemon's logic since I don't think it's accurate and it has too many holes, how many times has the wild card made it to bonus land in the last year? Take that number and divide it by 24. That would be a fairer estimate on how many people land on the million in the bonus round.[/quote]
Divide by another three, since the Million 'sliver' is just one part of the Bankrupt-Million-Bankrupt wedge, whereas the Wild Card gets a whole wedge.

Joe Mello · « **Reply #10 on:** August 13, 2008, 02:28:27 PM »

[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 10:13 AM\']1- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on Wheel of Fortune this season.[/quote]
I'm leaning towards yes. While it is mathematically improbable, I'm willing to bet that the million goes to a good player who solves more than half of the non-toss-up puzzles and is able to control the wheel long enough so that winning isn't an issue.

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2- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on WWTBAM this season.

No; Very no if the miniscule time limits are involved.

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3- YES or NO- DoND will give away the top prize in a NORMAL game (no extra top prize case gimmicks) in either Syndicated or primetime this season.

Because of recent news, this question takes an interesting twist, but I say yes.

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4- YES or NO- Someone will win at least $500,000 in normal gameplay on J! this season.

No. We may get another 10+ game winner, but they'll probably make half that.

Quote

5- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader or Don't Forget the Lyrics this season.

No.

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6-YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Million Dollar Password or TPIR MDS...

Yes.

Quote

7- YES or NO- At least one NEW Game Show (one that has not aired on a major network before in this era) will debut during the season.

Duh.

Jimmy Owen · « **Reply #11 on:** August 13, 2008, 02:40:24 PM »

No on all.

clemon79 · « **Reply #12 on:** August 13, 2008, 02:54:25 PM »

[quote name=\'MikeK\' post=\'193906\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 11:15 AM\']
Discarding Mr. Lemon's logic since I don't think it's accurate and it has too many holes,[/quote]
Um, how so? What I laid out was the BEST mathematical scenario given the limited empirical data we have to work with (number of $10K space lands (though I'll allow that "how many times did the Wild Card make it to the end" is probably a better empirical jumping-off point), times three, divided by 24), and then said that because of other factors (keeping the wedge to the end, winning the game, solving the bonus puzzle) the true odds were WAY worse than even that.

So please tell me how that's a) not accurate when I never intended it to be so in the first place, and b) where the holes are in that logic when all I said was "and the true odds are even worse than what I laid out."

BrandonFG · « **Reply #13 on:** August 13, 2008, 03:23:06 PM »

[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193907\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 02:19 PM\']
[quote name=\'parliboy\' post=\'193904\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 01:23 PM\']

Yes, because we already know about some that will. Pay attention to the news, my friend.
[/quote]

I probably should have been more specific...I meant to say a show on one of the Big 4 3/4 networks (CW is a half a network at best, My Network TV is a 1/4 of one...)
[/quote]
In that case, the answer remains yes; Opportunity Knocks premieres in September. I'll guess that there will be at least one for each of the other "Big 4" networks.

MikeK · « **Reply #14 on:** August 13, 2008, 03:25:26 PM »

[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'193911\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 02:54 PM\']
[quote name=\'MikeK\' post=\'193906\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 11:15 AM\']
Discarding Mr. Lemon's logic since I don't think it's accurate and it has too many holes,[/quote]
Um, how so?[/quote]
Not everybody who wins the $10K space went to the bonus puzzle. The Wild Card comparison is a better yardstick for determining how many people could play for the million. Speaking of that, I forgot that the Wild Card is a regular wedge while the million is a sliver. Thanks for the correction, Mr. Armadillo.