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Author Topic: TPiR Cheat Sheet  (Read 10923 times)

DoorNumberFour

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« Reply #30 on: December 13, 2009, 12:22:47 PM »
Cover-Up - Screwing up the first number on purpose essentially guarantees you extra tries.

/I learned this one the hard way
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Steve Gavazzi

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« Reply #31 on: December 13, 2009, 01:02:24 PM »
[quote name=\'Mr. Bill\' post=\'232212\' date=\'Dec 13 2009, 10:26 AM\']BTW, it used to be that the second one was always worth more than the first.  But just in the last couple weeks, they reversed that and had the higher priced prize first.[/quote]
That's because they've been having the second thing you bid on be part of a larger package.  It sorta bothers me that it's lower than the first price sometimes, but it's a lot better than what they were doing last season.

dale_grass

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« Reply #32 on: December 13, 2009, 01:03:38 PM »
[quote name=\'DoorNumberFour\' post=\'232213\' date=\'Dec 13 2009, 01:22 PM\']Cover-Up - Screwing up the first number on purpose essentially guarantees you extra tries.

/I learned this one the hard way[/quote]
What's your threshold on 'essential guarantees'?  If a player guesses on the next four digits, the probability he/she will get at least one number right is only 2/3.  (With any luck the second digit will be obvious, but sometimes it isn't.)

TLEberle

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« Reply #33 on: December 13, 2009, 02:11:38 PM »
[quote name=\'Modor\' post=\'232088\' date=\'Dec 10 2009, 08:50 PM\']If you're playing a game such as "Bonkers", ignore the crowd and get as many guesses as possible in.[/quote]I would take this further: if you play this, don't wait by the big blue button to find out if you're right. Be back at the board to have another go. Essentially the running part becomes a Shuttle Run. Regarding the price, have an idea of what the 1000s will be; that reduces the number of guesses you'll need to eight/


[quote name=\'Craig Karlberg\' post=\'232099\' date=\'Dec 11 2009, 01:12 AM\']Not only Bonkers, but it also applies to Race Game.[/quote]No it doesn't. Ignore this guy.


[quote name=\'DoorNumberFour\' post=\'232213\' date=\'Dec 13 2009, 09:22 AM\']Cover-Up - Screwing up the first number on purpose essentially guarantees you extra tries.

/I learned this one the hard way[/quote]Except when you get all four numbers wrong, which guarantees that you look foolish for overpricing a car by $20,000.

For Grand Game, ignore the posted target price. At each step, pick the least expensive thing on the counter. Repeat as necessary until you've won the top prize.
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DoorNumberFour

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« Reply #34 on: December 13, 2009, 02:11:57 PM »
[quote name=\'dale_grass\' post=\'232215\' date=\'Dec 13 2009, 01:03 PM\'][quote name=\'DoorNumberFour\' post=\'232213\' date=\'Dec 13 2009, 01:22 PM\']Cover-Up - Screwing up the first number on purpose essentially guarantees you extra tries.

/I learned this one the hard way[/quote]
What's your threshold on 'essential guarantees'?  If a player guesses on the next four digits, the probability he/she will get at least one number right is only 2/3.  (With any luck the second digit will be obvious, but sometimes it isn't.)
[/quote]
That's very true. However, more often than not (including the day I was on) I've seen the second number be completely obvious, so I guess this strategy depends on that second number being obvious.

Then, of course, once that second number lights up, you've already eliminated a lot of choices from the last couple of columns.
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WilliamPorygon

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« Reply #35 on: December 13, 2009, 03:29:53 PM »
[quote name=\'TLEberle\' post=\'232218\' date=\'Dec 13 2009, 02:11 PM\']For Grand Game, ignore the posted target price. At each step, pick the least expensive thing on the counter. Repeat as necessary until you've won the top prize.[/quote]
The way I'd do Grand Game, is that if there's a product that's very obviously below the target price (and there's almost always one or two of them), save it for last, since at $1,000 going for $10,000 is the only point at which you have to risk your winnings to continue.  If your other picks are right, you'll not have to be worried about risking the $1,000.  If one of your other picks is wrong, you still get the money you were up to at that point.

(Yes, I realize it's essentially a difference of $100, tops.  But if one of your picks is wrong you're not getting the $10K anyway, and I'm sure most people would rather have $100 than not have $100.)

That Don Guy

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« Reply #36 on: December 13, 2009, 03:31:42 PM »
[quote name=\'TeppanYaki\' post=\'232210\' date=\'Dec 13 2009, 02:56 AM\'][quote name=\'Steve Gavazzi\' post=\'232207\' date=\'Dec 12 2009, 10:23 PM\'][quote name=\'TeppanYaki\' post=\'232206\' date=\'Dec 12 2009, 10:32 PM\']If you have six or seven dollars going into the last number in Lucky Seven, simple math dictates saying a 4 or a 5 equals a win.[/quote]
Actually, it's saying 5 if you have at least $5 left -- Lucky $even never uses zeroes.
[/quote]

You know, I had that inkling but didn't go for it.  I stand corrected.  Does/has Bob or Drew mentioned that at all - that there are no zeroes in the car?
[/quote]
There was a time when the last digit was zero about half the time - most likely to trap people with $5 left who would guess 5 and assume they would win.

-- Don

That Don Guy

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« Reply #37 on: December 13, 2009, 03:36:40 PM »
Sorry about the "second post" - I couldn't get the multiple quotes in a single reply working.

[quote name=\'DoorNumberFour\' post=\'232213\' date=\'Dec 13 2009, 09:22 AM\']Cover-Up - Screwing up the first number on purpose essentially guarantees you extra tries.

/I learned this one the hard way[/quote]
Be careful - at least one person has gotten all of the digits wrong on the first try.  (It wasn't anything stupid; they guessed 19 for the first two digits which were actually 20.)

My suggestion: if you have an idea what the second digit is, make the first digit right but the second digit wrong.

Also:
Hole In One (Or Two) - if you are sure about the order of four or five of the prices, put them in order first, even if the leftovers are definitely lower than the most expensive one.  You won't win the cash bonus, but that places you reasonably close to the hole.

-- Don

JayDLewis

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« Reply #38 on: December 13, 2009, 04:09:45 PM »
9 times out of 10* the first 2 digits of Cover Up are very obvious.

For Bonkers, always go with the odds. If the digit shown is 3, put the paddle on the top.



*4 out of 5 dentists agree with this, 95% of the time
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Unrealtor

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« Reply #39 on: December 13, 2009, 05:46:44 PM »
You're better off making only one change at a time in Race Game and Bonkers. Also, use the prize description and explanation of the rules to think about what your first guesses are going to be.

If you don't get at least two cars in the first roll on Let 'Em Roll, take the money. The probability of getting all five cars is pretty low, and this is probably the highest amount of cash available. If you have two cars showing and either have only one more roll or a substantial amount of money (more than $3K) offered, give it some serious thought.
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Mr. Armadillo

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« Reply #40 on: December 14, 2009, 05:36:10 PM »
[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'232098\' date=\'Dec 11 2009, 01:59 AM\'][quote name=\'Steve Gavazzi\' post=\'232092\' date=\'Dec 10 2009, 09:28 PM\']Secret "X":  Should she happen to get this for a car, make sure to mark the bottom row.  It's a Roger trick that I don't know if the current staff knows about, but every car playing for at least the last 10 years he produced had the secret X on the bottom.[/quote]
Out of a sample size of....?[/quote]
As a rule of thumb, the value of the prize is actually a pretty good indicator of where the X is going to be, since more people cover the top row than the bottom row.  Cheap prize = X in the middle, expensive prize = X on the bottom, average prize = X will tend toward the top/middle.

Since anyone with three X's is required to cover the middle, it would be far too easy to win a car if they put the X in the middle.  They know that more people cover the top row than the bottom row (for the same reason that Wheel of Fortune puzzles rarely use the bottom row of the puzzleboard), so they put it on the bottom for prizes they really, really don't want won.

[quote name=\'That Don Guy\' post=\'232232\' date=\'Dec 13 2009, 02:36 PM\']My suggestion: if you have an idea what the second digit is, make the first digit right but the second digit wrong.[/quote]

This.  For Cover Up, start with your second guess for the second digit, not your first guess.  You'd much rather be proved wrong about the second digit by accidentally getting it right than by accidentally getting it wrong.

Pass the Buck:  Pick 1 and/or 6.  The producers know that fewer people pick these two numbers than the other four, so the car is more likely to be hidden there.  (A few years ago, it was so reliable that those two numbers held the $5,000 and the car that I would seriously consider picking again if I revealed the car with my first pick.  I don't believe if it's still that reliable, but you still want to pick those two numbers.)

While we're along these lines, don't even think about punching a corner in Punch-A-Bunch.

Plinko:  Always drop the chips from the middle of the board.  Wherever the chip is dropped from, it's more likely to land in the spot directly under where it's dropped from than any other individual slot.

Clock Game:  As a wise man once told me "Hundreds, fifties, tens, ones."  If you have a plan, you'll win this every time, and here's the plan I'd use.  Start with $800, and increase or decrease your bid in $100 increments until you've narrowed it down to $x00-$x99.  Then guess $x50.  If Drew says 'higher', guess $x60, $x70, $x80, and $x90 until you know the tens digit; if he says 'lower', guess $x40, $x30, $x20, and $x10.  Finally, once you've got the $10 range, just say, for instance, "Eight ninety one-two-three-four-five-six-seven-eight-nine" and you've got it.

Spelling Bee:  Taking the money is never the right move statistically (in fact, with five cards, you will win the car roughly 75% of the time), but if you're just not feeling it, go ahead and take the cash.  Don't let the audience sway you; it's your money, not theirs, and they don't know any better than you do what's on the other side of those cards.

Ten Chances (I know it's been posted, but this cannot be said enough):  Always, always, ALWAYS put the 0 at the end.  You're guaranteed at least two chances at the car at a minimum, and will actually win this game well over 50% of the time if you have any pricing acuity whatsoever.

Here's a tip not for any pricing games, but for Contestant's Row:  If you're not the last bidder, never $1-up anyone else, but if you are the last bidder, your bid should always be either $1 or $1 more than one of the other three bids.

As for the cheat sheet itself, two things; first, put a screenshot of each pricing game next to the tip.  That way, should they actually get on stage, they'll recognize the game immediately and be more likely to recall the tip.

Second...make damn sure that nobody actually takes one of these into the studio, or even the waiting areas outside TVC, for that matter.  While not technically a 'prize list', the staffers probably wouldn't be too keen on seeing one of these floating around.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2009, 05:38:00 PM by Mr. Armadillo »

clemon79

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« Reply #41 on: December 14, 2009, 05:39:59 PM »
[quote name=\'Mr. Armadillo\' post=\'232287\' date=\'Dec 14 2009, 02:36 PM\'][quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'232098\' date=\'Dec 11 2009, 01:59 AM\'][quote name=\'Steve Gavazzi\' post=\'232092\' date=\'Dec 10 2009, 09:28 PM\']Secret "X":  Should she happen to get this for a car, make sure to mark the bottom row.  It's a Roger trick that I don't know if the current staff knows about, but every car playing for at least the last 10 years he produced had the secret X on the bottom.[/quote]
Out of a sample size of....?[/quote]
As a rule of thumb, the value of the prize is actually a pretty good indicator of where the X is going to be, since more people cover the top row than the bottom row.  Cheap prize = X in the middle, expensive prize = X on the bottom, average prize = X will tend toward the top/middle.[/quote]
...which answers my question not at all.
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Mr. Armadillo

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« Reply #42 on: December 14, 2009, 05:41:27 PM »
Oh, the question was literal?  Sorry, my mistake.  Without looking at the data, I'd probably guess 7 or 8.

clemon79

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« Reply #43 on: December 14, 2009, 06:03:47 PM »
[quote name=\'Mr. Armadillo\' post=\'232289\' date=\'Dec 14 2009, 02:41 PM\']Oh, the question was literal?  Sorry, my mistake.  Without looking at the data, I'd probably guess 7 or 8.[/quote]
I'm also not interested in a guess. Steve made the assertion so I am sure he can give me the number. (If he so chooses, of course.)
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Mr. Bill

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« Reply #44 on: December 14, 2009, 08:05:23 PM »
[quote name=\'Mr. Armadillo\' post=\'232287\' date=\'Dec 14 2009, 05:36 PM\']While we're along these lines, don't even think about punching a corner in Punch-A-Bunch.[/quote]
Don't punch all the corners anyway.  And only think about it if you have three or four punches.  The big money is sometimes there.  I remember a long time ago they let Janice punch one just for kicks.  She punched the top right corner and found $10,000!