Author Topic: Wheel of Fortune Game Strategy (Read 9656 times)

Jeremy Nelson · « **on:** February 23, 2010, 04:43:20 PM »

SCENARIO: Let's just say you've won nothing so far in the game, regardless of how far into the show we've gotten. Neither player has more than a couple thousand bucks in the current round, and you only have $550, and this isn't a Prize Puzzle, so there really is no urgency to solve. There are one or two consonants left on the board to uncover, so you still have the option to spin. Do you spin or solve?

Many times, I've seen people in this situation solve and get bumped up to the house minimum, but wouldn't it be in your best interest to spin again and try to exceed the house minimum? I mean, if worse comes to worse, you're getting $1000 at the end of the show anyways, so why not try to hit Top Dollar/Prize Space/Trip/Mystery Wedge/Jackpot Space?

The only argument I can think of is emotional and not tactical- you want to solve at least one puzzle on Wheel of Fortune; that was your whole M.O. going into it, and you're not going to let bad spinning on your part keep you from doing that.

What do you guys think?

BrandonFG · « **Reply #1 on:** February 23, 2010, 05:13:49 PM »

[quote name=\'rollercoaster87\' post=\'236363\' date=\'Feb 23 2010, 04:43 PM\']SCENARIO: Let's just say you've won nothing so far in the game, regardless of how far into the show we've gotten. Neither player has more than a couple thousand bucks in the current round, and you only have $550, and this isn't a Prize Puzzle, so there really is no urgency to solve. There are one or two consonants left on the board to uncover, so you still have the option to spin. Do you spin or solve?[/quote]
Play to win. Even if it's only a couple of letters remaining, what's to say I can't hit the $2,500 space? Is $2,500 the minimum top-dollar value now, or is it still $1K?

clemon79 · « **Reply #2 on:** February 23, 2010, 05:25:46 PM »

[quote name=\'fostergray82\' post=\'236365\' date=\'Feb 23 2010, 02:13 PM\']Even if it's only a couple of letters remaining, what's to say I can't hit the $2,500 space?[/quote]
Based on the average strength with which most people are able to spin the wheel, if you look across the wheel, and you see the $2500 spot on the far side, that.

Jeremy Nelson · « **Reply #3 on:** February 23, 2010, 05:43:01 PM »

[quote name=\'fostergray82\' post=\'236365\' date=\'Feb 23 2010, 04:13 PM\']Is $2,500 the minimum top-dollar value now, or is it still $1K?[/quote]
Yep, $2500 is the R1 top dollar....I think it's been that way for 7 or 8 years now.

Joe Mello · « **Reply #4 on:** February 23, 2010, 06:38:16 PM »

[quote name=\'rollercoaster87\' post=\'236363\' date=\'Feb 23 2010, 04:43 PM\']The only argument I can think of is emotional and not tactical.[/quote]
Not entirely true. Time you don't spend spinning now can be spent on a 4th or 5th (maybe even 6th) puzzle. Granted, you're taking the game out of your hands, but if everyone has The Bankrupts and you think the round has gone to pot, there may not be enough incentive to try for a few extra C-Notes on a nearly full puzzle.

/Aside: I consider my own luck to be quite terrible

MSTieScott · « **Reply #5 on:** February 23, 2010, 07:31:38 PM »

Spin again. There are plenty more safe wedges than there are penalty wedges, and in your scenario, if there are two consonants left, even hitting the smallest $300 values will put you over the house minimum in the end.

Kevin Prather · « **Reply #6 on:** February 23, 2010, 08:21:05 PM »

[quote name=\'Joe Mello\' post=\'236369\' date=\'Feb 23 2010, 03:38 PM\']Time you don't spend spinning now can be spent on a 4th or 5th (maybe even 6th) puzzle.[/quote]
This is the only argument I can think of. Play round 1 and 2 nice and fast so you can get to round 3 and 4. Beyond that, though, play to win.

TLEberle · « **Reply #7 on:** February 23, 2010, 09:16:48 PM »

And if rounds three, four and anything beyond that had a greater payoff, I'd buy that. But since the only change is the top dollar value (and really, stagehands, if you're there putting the new wedges on the wheel, you can have new patterns for the later rounds) I don't think I'd be in a hurry to get to the later rounds.

So much of the game is about the luck of the wheel that I wouldn't chastise someone who wanted to stop with the accumulated money. The $1,000 you win isn't the only thing that happened; you deprived your opponents of $2,000 that would have extended their lead. (And really, you're assuming that I didn't win a single ONE of the toss-ups? Maybe if Messrs McClellan, Holder, DeLegge, Anotado...I apologize if I forgot any other winners) are all brought back for a special episode, and I have to play against them all and I'm not allowed to use my thumb. On a regular day I think I would have taken at least one toss-up.

TLEberle · « **Reply #8 on:** February 23, 2010, 11:09:26 PM »

Just for grins, I timed how much content there was in an episode. From the category sounder to a correct solve: round one was 57 seconds. Round two, two minutes. Round three, 1:35. Round four was 1:12. Round five had thirty seconds of regular play and 1:15 in speed-up. I'm not convinced that solving to save time is a great strategy. The early solve would be entirely a case of my aversion to risk.

TimK2003 · « **Reply #9 on:** February 23, 2010, 11:16:22 PM »

I think some of the strategy factor not mentioned yet is if you will have first control of the wheel in the next round (if there is time for another non-speed round).

If there are only a couple of consonants to fill, then I might want to "cash out" in the current round and get first dibs on a new board with (hopefully) a bigger puzzle and hopefully a boat load of the LNRST letters.

If it's late in the game, and you feel the next round will automatically become a speed round, then I'd finish out the current round. Even though you'll have the first turn in the next round, you won't be in total control like in a regular round, and you may not get another chance.

Strikerz04 · « **Reply #10 on:** February 24, 2010, 02:48:25 AM »

My approach was that the faster I solve, the lesser the risk to hit the penalty. I hit $3500, called my 2 letters and quit while I was ahead. I wasn't playing for a 5th puzzle, I just wanted to collect my stash.

Then again, this is what happened to me in the same episode: My 3rd round went to pot the minute I hit a Lose a Turn ($8100 with all but two letters remaining), my opponent just solved it to get the Prize Puzzle. She then won the match despite me trying to catch up in speed-up.

WarioBarker · « **Reply #11 on:** February 24, 2010, 03:12:43 PM »

Well, if you spin, you could lose your turn...or worse, call a letter that isn't in the puzzle (even if you know how the words are pronounced). If you solve, you give that much more of a chance of a full Round 4.

Quote from: BrandonFG on February 23, 2010, 05:13:49 PM

Is $2,500 the minimum top-dollar value now, or is it still $1K?

As noted elsewhere, $2,500 with $900 in second regardless of round. $1,000 hasn't been a regular Wheel value since the beginning of Season 18.

Quote from: TimK2003 on February 23, 2010, 11:16:22 PM

If it's late in the game, and you feel the next round will automatically become a speed round, then I'd finish out the current round. Even though you'll have the first turn in the next round, you won't be in total control like in a regular round, and you may not get another chance.

Assuming you get the third Toss-Up. No matter how badly the contestants play, there will always be three full rounds and three Toss-Ups.

Dbacksfan12 · « **Reply #12 on:** February 24, 2010, 03:30:38 PM »

[quote name=\'Dan88\' post=\'236404\' date=\'Feb 24 2010, 03:12 PM\']Well, if you spin, you could lose your turn...or worse, call a letter that isn't in the puzzle (even if you know how the words are pronounced). If you solve, you give that much more of a chance of a full Round 4.[/quote]If you're dumb enough to know the answer, but can't spell it, I think that's your own fault.

Can one of our resident mathematicians provide the expected value of a spin? I assume there's more to it than just finding the mean...or would it fluctuate too much with a contestant's total?

clemon79 · « **Reply #13 on:** February 24, 2010, 04:15:59 PM »

[quote name=\'Modor\' post=\'236405\' date=\'Feb 24 2010, 12:30 PM\']Can one of our resident mathematicians provide the expected value of a spin?[/quote]
No, because it assumes an equal chance of landing on every wedge during a given spin, and we know that not to be true. Assuming that is useless.

TLEberle · « **Reply #14 on:** February 24, 2010, 10:01:41 PM »

[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'236408\' date=\'Feb 24 2010, 01:15 PM\'][quote name=\'Modor\' post=\'236405\' date=\'Feb 24 2010, 12:30 PM\']Can one of our resident mathematicians provide the expected value of a spin?[/quote]No, because it assumes an equal chance of landing on every wedge during a given spin, and we know that not to be true. Assuming that is useless.[/quote]That's absolutely true. But if you know the average distance that you spin the wheel, and pay attention to where your pointer is at the start of a turn, you can internally decide whether to spin harder to avoid pain or get close to the big money spaces, or to gimp it for the same reason.