Author Topic: Wheel of Fortune Game Strategy (Read 9587 times)

dale_grass · « **Reply #15 on:** February 25, 2010, 12:10:08 AM »

[quote name=\'Modor\' post=\'236405\' date=\'Feb 24 2010, 03:30 PM\']Can one of our resident mathematicians provide the expected value of a spin?[/quote]
Fancy guessing is for statisticians. And for sissies.

\Gauntlet thrown.

clemon79 · « **Reply #16 on:** February 25, 2010, 03:33:51 AM »

[quote name=\'TLEberle\' post=\'236429\' date=\'Feb 24 2010, 07:01 PM\']That's absolutely true. But if you know the average distance that you spin the wheel, and pay attention to where your pointer is at the start of a turn, you can internally decide whether to spin harder to avoid pain or get close to the big money spaces, or to gimp it for the same reason.[/quote]
Yeah, but that gets dangerously close to gaming the wheel, which I believe is against the show's rules.

Point is, the "EV" of a spin, in general, is incomputable. Maybe you can predict which block of five or six wedges you're likely to hit, but you have no idea which blocks are possible until it's your turn and the wheel is presented to you in its current state.

So the best you can do is say "Okay, if my regular spin sends it *about* 1.2 revolutions, and when my turn comes it's on the yellow $150, then I should land in *that* region, and the EV of that is X." In other words, WAYYYY too many variables to get the single number Mark seems to want.

Craig Karlberg · « **Reply #17 on:** February 25, 2010, 04:11:37 AM »

Good point, Chris. Not only is it mathematically impossible to compute, it's also depenant on each player's strength of their spins. Physical abilities are different for each player. Some are hard while others are "soft". A very few will actually "home in" on a certain region. It's really not an exact science per se, but at least everything else is common knowledge, like the 3 Toss-Ups per show & no less than $25K is offered in the bonus round(although there was a $23K Mini Cooper not too long ago, that's usually the exception these days).

Besides, just showing up gets you $1K anyways. If there are a couple letters left with < $1K in my bank, I simply try to solve the puzzle to minimize the risk of losing my rurn just to keep the next player in line away from the wheel if there's lots of bad luck on there.

Mr. Armadillo · « **Reply #18 on:** February 25, 2010, 10:13:08 AM »

[quote name=\'Dan88\' post=\'236404\' date=\'Feb 24 2010, 02:12 PM\'][quote name=\'fostergray82\' post=\'236365\' date=\'Feb 23 2010, 05:13 PM\']Is $2,500 the minimum top-dollar value now, or is it still $1K?[/quote]
As mentioned elsewhere, $2,500 -- with $900 in second regardless of round. $1,000 hasn't been a regular space on the Wheel in years![/quote]
If one Mystery Wedge is picked up, the other is a regular $1,000 space. If you have no intention of picking either up, they're both regular $1,000 spaces.

[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'236450\' date=\'Feb 25 2010, 02:33 AM\']Point is, the "EV" of a spin, in general, is incomputable.[/quote]
In addition to all the reasons you point out, the 'EV' of a Bankrupt is also dependent on the amount of cash you have in front of you on that particular spin.

(On the other hand, it appears they've at least made an effort to balance out the EV of the wheel's various 5-6 wedge sections, now that TDV is always adjacent to a Bankrupt.)

Dbacksfan12 · « **Reply #19 on:** February 25, 2010, 06:14:35 PM »

[quote name=\'Craig Karlberg\' post=\'236451\' date=\'Feb 25 2010, 04:11 AM\'](although there was a $23K Mini Cooper not too long ago, that's usually the exception these days).[/quote]I thought they had gotten rid of cars on the wheel as of this season?

BrandonFG · « **Reply #20 on:** February 25, 2010, 06:24:06 PM »

[quote name=\'Modor\' post=\'236481\' date=\'Feb 25 2010, 06:14 PM\'][quote name=\'Craig Karlberg\' post=\'236451\' date=\'Feb 25 2010, 04:11 AM\'](although there was a $23K Mini Cooper not too long ago, that's usually the exception these days).[/quote]I thought they had gotten rid of cars on the wheel as of this season?
[/quote]
They've offered (or at least brought back) cars since about December or so.

Joe Mello · « **Reply #21 on:** February 25, 2010, 07:49:32 PM »

[quote name=\'TLEberle\' post=\'236384\' date=\'Feb 23 2010, 11:09 PM\']Just for grins, I timed how much content there was in an episode.[/quote]
Now you've gotten me interested in the "magical" cut-off area between normal play and speed up (which would be, by your reckoning, around 6 and a quarter minutes). Obviously, there'd need to be a bigger sample.

TLEberle · « **Reply #22 on:** February 25, 2010, 09:05:27 PM »

[quote name=\'Joe Mello\' post=\'236484\' date=\'Feb 25 2010, 04:49 PM\'][quote name=\'TLEberle\' post=\'236384\' date=\'Feb 23 2010, 11:09 PM\']Just for grins, I timed how much content there was in an episode.[/quote]Now you've gotten me interested in the "magical" cut-off area between normal play and speed up (which would be, by your reckoning, around 6 and a quarter minutes). Obviously, there'd need to be a bigger sample.[/quote]I did not take into account any toss-up puzzles, though that would have appeared as actual gameplay rounds in the old shows, but I think you can safely assume that any time there is a mid-show advertisement, that is time that was pulled away from gameplay.

Yogi007 · « **Reply #23 on:** February 26, 2010, 08:26:18 AM »

[quote name=\'fostergray82\' post=\'236482\' date=\'Feb 25 2010, 06:24 PM\'][quote name=\'Modor\' post=\'236481\' date=\'Feb 25 2010, 06:14 PM\'][quote name=\'Craig Karlberg\' post=\'236451\' date=\'Feb 25 2010, 04:11 AM\'](although there was a $23K Mini Cooper not too long ago, that's usually the exception these days).[/quote]I thought they had gotten rid of cars on the wheel as of this season?
[/quote]
They've offered (or at least brought back) cars since about December or so.
[/quote]
Two VW Beetles were won on this past Tuesday and Wednesday shows. Value of the car was about $30,000.

TLEberle · « **Reply #24 on:** February 27, 2010, 12:59:08 AM »

[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'236450\' date=\'Feb 25 2010, 12:33 AM\']Yeah, but that gets dangerously close to gaming the wheel, which I believe is against the show's rules.[/quote] I don't think I could spin with the same strength every time. I don't think they're expecting that. And if you spin to avoid the pain instead of aiming to hit the good stuff, I think the production crew would be less likely to perk up their ears.

Knowing the strength of your spin is more information, just like the letter board, the score, the category...I file it all under "playing ahead/to win."

Quote

In other words, WAYYYY too many variables to get the single number Mark seems to want.

I have zero quibble with this. There are far too many nuances to get even close to a useful answer.

Darion Blackwood Daniel · « **Reply #25 on:** March 13, 2010, 01:07:29 PM »

I can say this. If you want to win at Wheel easily, you just simply have to go for it even if it meant risking the Million Dollar Wedge. I know now that you can't win with very little. Even if you can buy vowels, time can be the enemy so it is best in my view to just spin in a round until you can't or you have enough to pass the leader.

Bill Neuweiler · « **Reply #26 on:** March 13, 2010, 03:01:35 PM »

Every stituation in game play will be diffenert. Strategies may be based on what others have earned throughout the show, wheather or not you're in a prize puzzle, aversion to risk, etc. And of course many things probably fly out the window once the cameras start rolling. Blackwood brought up the Million Dollar Wedge--that would be a factor for me. Say I had less than a thousand dollars and knew the puzzle. I think I would like to keep spinning trying to hit the magic wedge. How often am I going to come that close to a million bucks?

But Chris brought up a good point as well...contestants are told they're not allowed to game the wheel? Anybody know exactly what the rules for spinning are?

TLEberle · « **Reply #27 on:** March 13, 2010, 03:13:54 PM »

[quote name=\'Darion Blackwood Daniel\' post=\'237501\' date=\'Mar 13 2010, 10:07 AM\']I can say this. If you want to win at Wheel easily, you just simply have to go for it even if it meant risking the Million Dollar Wedge. I know now that you can't win with very little. Even if you can buy vowels, time can be the enemy so it is best in my view to just spin in a round until you can't or you have enough to pass the leader.[/quote]I would absolutely love to test your theory against mine, for real stakes.

MikeK · « **Reply #28 on:** March 13, 2010, 03:36:41 PM »

[quote name=\'TLEberle\' post=\'237513\' date=\'Mar 13 2010, 03:13 PM\'][quote name=\'Darion Blackwood Daniel\' post=\'237501\' date=\'Mar 13 2010, 10:07 AM\']I can say this. If you want to win at Wheel easily, you just simply have to go for it even if it meant risking the Million Dollar Wedge. I know now that you can't win with very little. Even if you can buy vowels, time can be the enemy so it is best in my view to just spin in a round until you can't or you have enough to pass the leader.[/quote]I would absolutely love to test your theory against mine, for real stakes.[/quote]
You'd win immediately. The first consonant he'd ask for is Asia. That or the letter with all the round stuff.

BrandonFG · « **Reply #29 on:** March 13, 2010, 04:29:12 PM »

[quote name=\'Darion Blackwood Daniel\' post=\'237501\' date=\'Mar 13 2010, 01:07 PM\']I can say this. If you want to win at Wheel easily, you just simply have to go for it even if it meant risking the Million Dollar Wedge. I know now that you can't win with very little. Even if you can buy vowels, time can be the enemy so it is best in my view to just spin in a round until you can't or you have enough to pass the leader.[/quote]
Couldn't have said it any better himself.