Author Topic: Jeopardy! Betting (Read 5240 times)

Jeremy Nelson · « **on:** May 11, 2010, 05:55:22 PM »

This week begins the Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions, and I thought it's be a good time to ask about betting strategy, as going for the win may not be optimal strategy in some cases. I haven't seen a game yet this tournament, so I'm not pulling this from any specific game:

If you have $20,000, and your nearest opponent has $15,000, how do you bet? Do you go for the win, pad you score, or stand pat?

BrandonFG · « **Reply #1 on:** May 11, 2010, 06:11:58 PM »

[quote name=\'rollercoaster87\' post=\'240668\' date=\'May 11 2010, 05:55 PM\']If you have $20,000, and your nearest opponent has $15,000, how do you bet? Do you go for the win, pad you score, or stand pat?[/quote]
I think it depends on the category. If I have a good idea of the category, I'd wager $10,001, enough to win the game by $1.

If it's something where I have no idea whatsoever (i.e. last night's episode), I'd wager $0, and hope like hell to qualify as a Wild Card.

clemon79 · « **Reply #2 on:** May 11, 2010, 07:04:58 PM »

[quote name=\'fostergray82\' post=\'240670\' date=\'May 11 2010, 03:11 PM\']If it's something where I have no idea whatsoever (i.e. last night's episode)[/quote]
I spent a lot of time last night having No Idea Whatsoever. Just wondering if the class thinks, based on yesterday's show, that the quality of material in this year's TOC is going to be harder than it has been in past years?

tpirfan28 · « **Reply #3 on:** May 11, 2010, 07:35:07 PM »

$5000, unless it's on a category that I am absolutely 100% sure I would get right. $15,000 still seems like a high enough score to qualify as a wild card, and $25,000 would be a near-lock.

Matt Ottinger · « **Reply #4 on:** May 11, 2010, 09:08:38 PM »

Without looking up the statistics (which do exist, BTW), I'd say $20K is a good, safe amount to get you through to the next round. So like fg82 says, I'd pay attention to the FJ category. If I liked it a lot, I'd go for the win, and if I hated it, I'd stand.

(Note that in regular play, I believe the FJ category is one of the last things to consider, and should rarely be considered at all.)

Jeremy Nelson · « **Reply #5 on:** May 11, 2010, 10:18:11 PM »

Wow....just saw today's game. That almost mirrored the scoring situation I posted. That really was a Goofus and Gallant between the right and center players, especially. Why would he throw the game away after going so ballsy on the last Daily Double?

gameshowcrazy · « **Reply #6 on:** May 11, 2010, 10:32:39 PM »

Before anyone here goes nuts, I don't have the hard facts here (but I'm sure some of you fanatics do)...however, in my OPINION, it seems that historically the $12-13K mark is necessary for a wild card slot, and in the first round that is all I would concern myself with.

Why bet $10001 to go for the win--what if you have the wrong answer, then you only have $9999, and it would take some help and the usual horrible betting by the other contestants.

On the flip side of this, I have always contended that with the $12-13K mark being the bottom end of the qualifying score for the wild card, why does anyone with $7K bet anything less than everything. If they are right, they double their score, and should safely move on; if they are wrong, the maybe $1 or $800 they tend to leave themselves with does nothing for them, and can even hurt their chances at the WC spot.

TLEberle · « **Reply #7 on:** May 11, 2010, 10:52:08 PM »

[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' post=\'240688\' date=\'May 11 2010, 06:08 PM\']Without looking up the statistics (which do exist, BTW), I'd say $20K is a good, safe amount to get you through to the next round. So like fg82 says, I'd pay attention to the FJ category. If I liked it a lot, I'd go for the win, and if I hated it, I'd stand.[/quote]It worked for Bob Harris in the Masters Tournament. He also had a bit of great fortune in Frank Spangenberg Being Wrong.

The thing is, the first round actually cuts more losers than it lets in, as opposed to American Gladiators, where you just had to not be two of the losingest losers and you got to the next round. If you can win without blowing up your game, have a go. The thing is that if I'm in the Tournament of Champions, I'm against two other smart people, and if I scored $20k in the first two rounds, several other people should be able to do it too. For me, it would really come down to the category.

MSTieScott · « **Reply #8 on:** May 11, 2010, 11:04:05 PM »

Random question that just popped into my head:

In the quarterfinals, say two contestants finish the game with $20,000 (after the Final Jeopardy! results had been revealed). I know that in the semifinals, they'd have a tie-breaker clue to determine the winner -- would they also have a tie-breaker clue in the quarterfinal round, with the winner automatically advancing and the runner-up being a $20,000 wild card?

WilliamPorygon · « **Reply #9 on:** May 11, 2010, 11:27:30 PM »

[quote name=\'MSTieScott\' post=\'240708\' date=\'May 11 2010, 11:04 PM\']Random question that just popped into my head:

In the quarterfinals, say two contestants finish the game with $20,000 (after the Final Jeopardy! results had been revealed). I know that in the semifinals, they'd have a tie-breaker clue to determine the winner -- would they also have a tie-breaker clue in the quarterfinal round, with the winner automatically advancing and the runner-up being a $20,000 wild card?[/quote]

I can't imagine they wouldn't, unless possibly if it were the Friday game and already established that they would both be moving on to the semifinals anyway. The outcome of the tiebreaker may end up not mattering, but to eliminate a wild card spot and have them both automatically advance would potentially be unfair to the non-winners who hope to advance via a wild card spot, if it happened that their tied winning scores ended up being less than the 3rd-highest wild card score.

TLEberle · « **Reply #10 on:** May 11, 2010, 11:32:26 PM »

And here's your answer. I live to serve.

Mr. Armadillo · « **Reply #11 on:** May 12, 2010, 12:10:34 PM »

[quote name=\'gameshowcrazy\' post=\'240704\' date=\'May 11 2010, 09:32 PM\']On the flip side of this, I have always contended that with the $12-13K mark being the bottom end of the qualifying score for the wild card, why does anyone with $7K bet anything less than everything. If they are right, they double their score, and should safely move on; if they are wrong, the maybe $1 or $800 they tend to leave themselves with does nothing for them, and can even hurt their chances at the WC spot.[/quote]
The difference between $1 and $0 is greater than the one between $12,799 and $12,800, I would think.

There was *one* ToC where $0 qualified (and thus a $1 score would have gotten in), but has there ever been a wild card spot determined by a single dollar (and between xx99 and xx00 as opposed to xx00/xx01, at that)?

BrandonFG · « **Reply #12 on:** May 12, 2010, 02:47:29 PM »

[quote name=\'TLEberle\' post=\'240714\' date=\'May 11 2010, 11:32 PM\']And here's your answer. I live to serve.[/quote]
And here is Instance #5, November 2007.

/Alex pulls a Barker, incorrectly recalling that it hadn't happened in about 20 years. ;-)

gameshowcrazy · « **Reply #13 on:** May 12, 2010, 06:30:05 PM »

[quote name=\'Mr. Armadillo\' post=\'240728\' date=\'May 12 2010, 12:10 PM\'][quote name=\'gameshowcrazy\' post=\'240704\' date=\'May 11 2010, 09:32 PM\']On the flip side of this, I have always contended that with the $12-13K mark being the bottom end of the qualifying score for the wild card, why does anyone with $7K bet anything less than everything. If they are right, they double their score, and should safely move on; if they are wrong, the maybe $1 or $800 they tend to leave themselves with does nothing for them, and can even hurt their chances at the WC spot.[/quote]
The difference between $1 and $0 is greater than the one between $12,799 and $12,800, I would think.

There was *one* ToC where $0 qualified (and thus a $1 score would have gotten in), but has there ever been a wild card spot determined by a single dollar (and between xx99 and xx00 as opposed to xx00/xx01, at that)?
[/quote]

I don't doubt you looked this up or remember it, but if $0 qualified to move on to the semi-finals, does that mean all 15 contestants (unless someone finished in the red) qualified and there was a massive tie-breaker involved based on scores going into FJ? How many were involved in this tie-breaker?

Jeremy Nelson · « **Reply #14 on:** May 12, 2010, 09:31:03 PM »

[quote name=\'gameshowcrazy\' post=\'240755\' date=\'May 12 2010, 05:30 PM\']I don't doubt you looked this up or remember it, but if $0 qualified to move on to the semi-finals, does that mean all 15 contestants (unless someone finished in the red) qualified and there was a massive tie-breaker involved based on scores going into FJ? How many were involved in this tie-breaker?[/quote]
Worst case scenario: which I'm sure didn't happen, all 15 contestants finished with $0.

Best case scenario: 8 contestants qualified (5 winners and 3 high scorers), and the other 7 finished with $0. Of those 7, the player with the highest score at the end of Double Jeopardy! round advanced to the semi finals.