Mathematical analyses of the Showcase Showdown

[MikeK]

While doing some research for an educational technology project, I came across two interesting sites regarding Showcase Showdown strategies.  The first link is shorter and much simpler to read than the second link.

http://www.nd.edu/~ndmag/ilm2au97.html
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/links/doi...297.0j678/full/

For those that care, here's a link to my ed. tech. project.  It's my attempt at making high school statistics and probability fun.

[chris319]

I'm being told I need a subscription to access the second link.

Of course we all know the first writer has his nomenclature wrong: the game with the Big Wheel is the Showcase Showdown; the end game is/are the Showcase(s).

[Matt Ottinger]

In addition, I think there's faulty reporting in the 1997 article.  It says that this model differed from another in the past because it took into account "such potential rewards as the bonus prizes and average bounty available in the Showcase".   Well, as opposed to what, stopping and putting sixty cents in your pocket?  Isn't it just a matter of winning or not winning?

Also, the article says nothing about what Player Two should do in cases where he's tied Player One.  According to the definitive rules as described -- the entire point of the article -- Player Two should spin again at 95 cents if he's tied with Player One ("if the first spin isn't enough to beat Contestant 1").

Of course, the best thing is the paragraph near the end, where these incredibly intelligent men with their sophisticated mathematical models admitted that the contestants on the show were pretty much making the correct intuitive guesses and coming up with success rates near identical to their models all along.

[MikeK]

[quote name=\'chris319\' date=\'Nov 20 2003, 02:44 PM\'] I'm being told I need a subscription to access the second link.

Of course we all know the first writer has his nomenclature wrong: the game with the Big Wheel is the Showcase Showdown; the end game is/are the Showcase(s). [/quote]
 Interesting.  It worked fine for me w/o registration.  Unfortunately, posting the link is easier than copying and pasting the page's contents as there are images on that site which are continuations of the page's text and because the page is very long and boring, unless you're big into math and statistical methods.

[Gromit]

Yup, I get a "single article purchase" request for the second link as well.

I'm surprised that they say contestants use the right strategy most times. This is a huge pet peeve of mine, I see contestants who get 60 or 65 on the first spin stop the *majority* of the time. Drives me nuts.

[Steve McClellan]

[quote name=\'Gromit\' date=\'Nov 21 2003, 12:46 AM\']I'm surprised that they say contestants use the right strategy most times. This is a huge pet peeve of mine, I see contestants who get 60 or 65 on the first spin stop the *majority* of the time. Drives me nuts.[/quote]
Sure, they use the right strategy most of the time. How many times do you see people staying on 20 cents? Or spinning again on 95 (given the choice)?

As for the first contestant staying on 60 or 65, staying reduces their chances of winning by only three to five percentage points, so it's unsurprising that a relatively small study wouldn't show that.