Jeopardy! wagering and gender...

[weaklink75]

An article from msnbc.com about a Swedish study using their J! version to see how different setups of contestants deal with wagering....(and if you have $31.50 to spare you can see the actual article..)

[davidbod]

For all the book smarts that J! contestants have, and all the practice they put into buzzer technique and responding "What is...", sometimes it takes my breath away how little brainpower they exert to smart wagering.

There was a horrendous situation a few days back where a (female, as it happens) contestant hit the second DD on the very final clue and effectively denied herself a free shot at getting the lock-out by wagering too low. Even if she bet $5k and missed, she was still a narrow chip leader going into FJ!

As it happens, she missed the FJ clue so justice was served.

EDITED TO ADD: Since this (seemingly useful) adage isn't mentioned in http://www.j-archive.com/help.php, here's the full SP:

Sam Meyer - $9,000
Tim Kuehn - $10,000
Chris Hauck - $17,200

Chris hits DD on the final clue and bets $1000 (and gets it right). But she could have bet anything from $2,801 to $7,199 to get a free shot at the lockout without risking her 1st place position.

Feel free to name this rule after me if it's useful

[Matt Ottinger]

Tim Kuehn - $10,000
Chris Hauck - $17,200

Chris hits DJ on the final clue and bets $1000 (and gets it right). But she could have bet anything from $2,801 to $7,199 to get a free shot at the lockout without risking her 1st place position.

Feel free to name this rule after me if it's useful

The odds of the very last clue being a DD are so relatively low that it remains a mostly unexplored field in Jeopardy wagering circles.  Still, you're right, this one shouldn't have been so hard to figure out.

[TLEberle]

The odds of the very last clue being a DD are so relatively low that it remains a mostly unexplored field in Jeopardy wagering circles.  Still, you're right, this one shouldn't have been so hard to figure out.

Sure, but when Alex says "and you control the last clue which is (also) a Daily Double," that's a really good time to look at the scoreboard. I watched that last bit, scratching my head because I saw the same thing David saw. The only reason I can think of to not try to Finish The Job right then is if she really didn't want to fall back down to $12,000.

I think the reason that there are people who don't scheme and plot over their wagering strategies is because they're either busy trying to wedge an entire liberal arts degree into their brainhole before getting on the air, or the idea that betting was something to be studied didn't come to their minds.

[davidbod]

The odds of the very last clue being a DD are so relatively low that it remains a mostly unexplored field in Jeopardy wagering circles.  Still, you're right, this one shouldn't have been so hard to figure out.

Hmm, really? In the 21 shows I've seen since the end of the Teacher's Tournament, the second DD has appeared as clue 29 three times and clue 30 three times. Maybe that's a fluke, but - given that contestants tend to "go down columns" and how the DD is mostly hidden in $1600, or one either side - it doesn't appear to be *that* rare. There's certainly been other situations recently where there was the late opportunity for a freeshot lockout, or at the very least the possibility of choosing to go for a lockout (possibly risking 1st place) depending on how good you judge your knowledge of that subject against a random, as yet unknown, FJ! category.

It's interesting to note that, in that short run of programs I'd examined, the next lowest clue numbers hit are a couple of 24's - i.e. the contestants hit it in the $1600 slot of the previous category. So it looks - according to this small sample - that the likelihood of hitting the DD is non-linear.

[Mr. Armadillo]

Tim Kuehn - $10,000
Chris Hauck - $17,200

Chris hits DJ on the final clue and bets $1000 (and gets it right). But she could have bet anything from $2,801 to $7,199 to get a free shot at the lockout without risking her 1st place position.

Feel free to name this rule after me if it's useful

The odds of the very last clue being a DD are so relatively low that it remains a mostly unexplored field in Jeopardy wagering circles.  Still, you're right, this one shouldn't have been so hard to figure out.

It's not entirely a free shot...right now, she's winning the Triple Stumper since a wrong Final response from those scores only drops her to $14,399.  To go for the lockout, she has to give up this advantage if she's wrong.  She'll still be ahead, but she now loses the Triple Stumper if Tim (or even Sam) bets small/nothing.

But yeah, agreed that lock-or-small-lead is a much better situation than guaranteed-big-lead-but-no-lock.  One of those 'bird in the hand is worth 20,001 in the bush' situations or something.

[Matt Ottinger]

The odds of the very last clue being a DD are so relatively low that it remains a mostly unexplored field in Jeopardy wagering circles.  Still, you're right, this one shouldn't have been so hard to figure out.

Hmm, really? In the 21 shows I've seen since the end of the Teacher's Tournament, the second DD has appeared as clue 29 three times and clue 30 three times. Maybe that's a fluke, but - given that contestants tend to "go down columns" and how the DD is mostly hidden in $1600, or one either side - it doesn't appear to be *that* rare.

No, I don't think it's a fluke, that sounds about right.  So the "very last" clue being a DD comes up one in seven times, and you have a more or less one in three chance of being the one who picks it.  That's a one in 21 chance that you're going to be faced with that situation, and most people only ever get to play one or two games.  The difference between my "relatively low [odds]" and your "rare" is just semantics, but I still think that's not a situation you should be planning for.

It's not entirely a free shot...right now, she's winning the Triple Stumper since a wrong Final response from those scores only drops her to $14,399.  To go for the lockout, she has to give up this advantage if she's wrong.  She'll still be ahead, but she now loses the Triple Stumper if Tim (or even Sam) bets small/nothing.

That's a valid point, something the Jeopardy cognoscenti call the "two-thirds" situation.  Even when you don't have a lock, how far you're ahead makes a mathematical difference as well.

[Mr. Armadillo]

The contestant's comfort with the category also has to be considered as well.  Would they rather try to win it here on a known category, or wait and take their shot on an unknown Final?  

Keep in mind that there's probably a reason these three contestants have saved this clue/category for last.

[davidbod]

It's not entirely a free shot...right now, she's winning the Triple Stumper since a wrong Final response from those scores only drops her to $14,399.  To go for the lockout, she has to give up this advantage if she's wrong.  She'll still be ahead, but she now loses the Triple Stumper if Tim (or even Sam) bets small/nothing.

But yeah, agreed that lock-or-small-lead is a much better situation than guaranteed-big-lead-but-no-lock.  One of those 'bird in the hand is worth 20,001 in the bush' situations or something.

To clarify, the scores immediately BEFORE the 30th clue, the DD, are:

Sam Meyer - $9,000
Tim Kuehn - $10,000
Chris Hauck - $17,200

She has three [main] scenarios: (a) bet $5-$2,800; (b) bet $2,801 to $7,199; (c) bet $7,200 to The Farm.

In (a), she doesn't materially affect what happens in FJ! regardless of her answer
In (b), she gets a Lockout if she's right; if she's wrong, it doesn't materially affect FJ!
In (c), she gets a Lockout if she's right; if she's wrong, she loses her lead going into to FJ!

So when I say 'free shot', I mean that if she chooses any value in case (b), she gets an extra chance to take the game away from her opponents and she's home and hosed. And if not, she's still in the box seat going into FJ!. Apart from losing a bit of cash, I can't see the major risk.

I know there are 'tipping points' for FJ! strategy, but it seems a little silly to deny yourself a golden chance to kill the game off now than worrying about a technical bundle of hypothetical scenarios should you miss FJ!.

Are there any stats published for DD success vs. FJ success?

[Matt Ottinger]

So when I say 'free shot', I mean that if she chooses any value in case (b), she gets an extra chance to take the game away from her opponents and she's home and hosed. And if not, she's still in the box seat going into FJ!. Apart from losing a bit of cash, I can't see the major risk.

Again, semantics.  Our hard-shelled colleague didn't say "major risk".  He said "It's not entirely a free shot."  He also agreed (as do I) that the smart move would be to put the game away then and there.  He is, nevertheless, correct to say that a (b) wager and a miss puts her in a different, less advantageous situation than a small wager and a miss.  It is precisely one of those "tipping points" you mentioned, and they do matter.

I'd be interested in the DD stats vs FJ stats too, and while we all seem to be in agreement that putting the game away right then is the best thing to do, I could see reasons (discomfort with the DD category being a big one) why you might want to hold on to your massive but not insurmountable lead.

[Jay Temple]

Assuming that I liked the FJ category, I agree with the $2801 wager, but here's another one to consider: $1,801.

Right: can lock out third place
Wrong: 2nd place still has less than 2/3

If the category is NORTHERN SUBURBS OF ST. LOUIS, I'm betting $2801.
If the category is STARTS WITH "T", I seriously consider $1801.

[Mr. Armadillo]

Agreed that the two best wagers are $3,000 and $2,000*, in that order.

My point is that very few people have the discipline to save their favorite category for last, which implies that there's a much greater likelihood you'll be staring down OPERA COMPOSERS' FAVORITE COLORS for that all-important last clue than MONTHS THAT BEGIN WITH "FEB".  I'd probably still go for the $3,000 even in that case, though.

* Let's be real, nobody, not even me, is going to do the math down to the dollar in the ~10 seconds you get to decide.  Too big a chance of pulling a Weikle.

[Matt Ottinger]

My point is that very few people have the discipline to save their favorite category for last, which implies that there's a much greater likelihood you'll be staring down OPERA COMPOSERS' FAVORITE COLORS for that all-important last clue than MONTHS THAT BEGIN WITH "FEB".  I'd probably still go for the $3,000 even in that case, though.

I thought I'd be a disciplined player when I appeared, and this is precisely the one thing I did wrong.  I was left with AFRICA as the final category.  Had things worked out a little differently, and I had found the last DD instead of Ken, I would have missed the clue and ended up losing in a runaway.  Not that I'm happy about the way things ultimately worked out, but at least now, whoever remembers my appearance remembers me as somebody who gave him a run rather than somebody who was just another lock-game victim.

[PYLdude]

Matt, correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't you the first to give Ken a serious run for his money after he started rolling? (Figure I'd ask the source before digging into the archive. )

[Matt Ottinger]

Matt, correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't you the first to give Ken a serious run for his money after he started rolling? (Figure I'd ask the source before digging into the archive. )

Well, one of the first, since I was only his 15th or 16th game.  One of the most astonishing things about his streak is how few people were even within striking distance of him after Double Jeopardy.  I remember somebody running the numbers and noting that his FJ success rate was high (of course) but not crazily so.  It simply didn't need to be.