"What Might Have Been" moments...?

[Bryce L.]

I know on the classic "Millionaire" (by "Classic", I mean the original ABC Primetime shows and the pre-clock era of Meredith's run), that if someone walked away on a question, once they confirmed they were done, the host would sometimes ask them "If you had to go for it, what would you have chosen?" My question is, were there a lot of cases where the "after-the-fact" guess by the player would have been the winning answer, if they had indeed said "Final Answer"?

In particular, any cases where, if they HAD pulled the trigger, they would have won the million?

[TLEberle]

My question is, were there a lot of cases where the "after-the-fact" guess by the player would have been the winning answer, if they had indeed said "Final Answer"?

My guess is about one in four had the correct answer.

[Thunder]

My guess is about one in four had the correct answer.

I'll say "Higher".

[PYLdude]

My guess is about one in four had the correct answer.

I'll say "Higher".

I think the correct answer might be whoosh. Maybe.

[TLEberle]

I think the correct answer might be whoosh. Maybe.

In whose case? I'm saying that if there are four choices, one in four rabbit hunts will pay off. And that remains the case from $4,000 on up.

[Bryce L.]

OK, let me rephrase my question in a more specific manner. Are there any confirmed incidents of a player walking away after seeing a $250,000, $500,000 or $1 million question, and having a correct after-the-fact guess?

[clemon79]

I'm saying that if there are four choices, one in four rabbit hunts will pay off. And that remains the case from $4,000 on up.

Yeah, but that is assuming that the choice is being made by a monkey pulling a pool ball out of a bag, as opposed to a human being who in most cases has a little bit of informed logic as to what the answer might be. By definition if but a single contestant walks instead of picking a horse when they *know* they have it narrowed down to two, then the mean success rate should be better than 25%.

[TLEberle]

Yeah, but that is assuming that the choice is being made by a monkey pulling a pool ball out of a bag, as opposed to a human being who in most cases has a little bit of informed logic as to what the answer might be. By definition if but a single contestant walks instead of picking a horse when they *know* they have it narrowed down to two, then the mean success rate should be better than 25%.

Acknowledged, but I don't know what Bryce means by "a lot", because I don't pay attention to the after-play guesses, because they don't pay off in cash. As such I can't quantify the rate of correctness, though I'll cede that it is closer to one-in-three than one-in-four.

/There were/are also times where a contestant has no idea as to the correct answer, but their a posteriori guess is sometimes right.
//Quite a lot of the Decaplet of Destiny contestants gave the correct answer but refused to gamble.

[Bryce L.]

Yeah, but that is assuming that the choice is being made by a monkey pulling a pool ball out of a bag, as opposed to a human being who in most cases has a little bit of informed logic as to what the answer might be. By definition if but a single contestant walks instead of picking a horse when they *know* they have it narrowed down to two, then the mean success rate should be better than 25%.

Acknowledged, but I don't know what Bryce means by "a lot", because I don't pay attention to the after-play guesses, because they don't pay off in cash. As such I can't quantify the rate of correctness, though I'll cede that it is closer to one-in-three than one-in-four.

/There were/are also times where a contestant has no idea as to the correct answer, but their a posteriori guess is sometimes right.
//Quite a lot of the Decaplet of Destiny contestants gave the correct answer but refused to gamble.

OK, another clarification... "a lot" means "a somewhat common occurrence". Contrast to a "mark your calendars" moment, if that helps...

I would like to hope that there aren't too many cases of someone being definitely on the right track when discussing the active question, almost to the point of saying "final answer" to the winning answer, but just not being able to summon the courage to go with their instinct. Seeing a moment of that sort is almost as painful, in my personal opinion, as a case of someone being overly confident on a question, with the end result being them locking in a wrong answer and losing a ton of money (the ultimate overconfident player being Ken "Give Me a Million Dollars" Basin)

[PYLdude]

I think the correct answer might be whoosh. Maybe.

In whose case? I'm saying that if there are four choices, one in four rabbit hunts will pay off. And that remains the case from $4,000 on up.

Yes. Which I got and Thunder didn't. Ergo...

[TLEberle]

Yes. Which I got and Thunder didn't. Ergo...

Gotcha.

[Kevin Prather]

To answer Bryce's question, there were five cases of balking on a MDQ when having the right answer: Tom O'Brien, Norm MacDonald, Pat Thompson, Mary Burke and Ogi Ogas. O'Brien and Thompson made it pretty clear that they were wild-ass guessing, while Burke had a faint idea, and Norm and Ogi seemed to be pretty close to going for it. There have been numerous of these cases on the $500,000 question, and I would imagine even more on the $250,000.

ETA: I forgot about the Tournament of Ten that Jeremy mentioned in the next post.

[Jeremy Nelson]

OK, let me rephrase my question in a more specific manner. Are there any confirmed incidents of a player walking away after seeing a $250,000, $500,000 or $1 million question, and having a correct after-the-fact guess?

Ogi Ogas saw a million dollar question and had the right answer- many of the players in the Tournament of Ten did as well.

[tomobrien]

O'Brien and Thompson made it pretty clear that they were wild-ass guessing

OK, I think I can speak to at least one part of this statement.   To me, anything less than 100% certainty on the $1M answer -- certainty like you know your own name -- constitutes a guess.  Something in the back of my head was pushing me toward one answer, but without that 100% certainty, I wasn't going to guess (in my definition, if not anyone else's) and risk losing $468,000.

[TLEberle]

Seeing a moment of that sort is almost as painful, in my personal opinion, as a case of someone being overly confident on a question, with the end result being them locking in a wrong answer and losing a ton of money

I really don't understand this. Watching someone not win another $250,000 isn't painful, because they're already going home with a bundle of cash. Watching someone go for it and be wrong sucks, but they're still going home with some cash as well.

Know what's really painful? Watching as a stock I'm invested in is pulled from an exchange because it can't stay over a dollar a share. Or having my sister call me up from the Gorge telling me how much fun she's having at the concert she's at, which she was able to buy tickets for because I lent her the money. While I'm out in the dog kennel cleaning up What Dogs Do(o). That's actual money, not numbers on a screen. I dislike losing actual money. I don't care about a chyroned number.