TPIR doing Plinko stunt week of Apr 9th..

[Jeremy Nelson]

they make it difficult to reset the jackpot. It just doesn't reset if you hit 10K with your 2nd of 5 chips. That increases the odds of the payout reaching its max by Friday (that's the third thing they got right).

Any chip has a roughly 1 in 4 chance of landing in the center slot. Whether it is first, third or last is immaterial and has no bearing on the difficulty of increasing the jackpot.

I get your point, but I'm curious how your math gets you one in four, when the big money slot is only one of 9 possible slots.

[dale_grass]

Any chip has a roughly 1 in 4 chance of landing in the center slot.

Just curious: where did you come up with that number?

Edit: You meant any chip dropped dead center, correct?

[MikeK]

Any chip has a roughly 1 in 4 chance of landing in the center slot. Whether it is first, third or last is immaterial and has no bearing on the difficulty of increasing the jackpot.

I get your point, but I'm curious how your math gets you one in four, when the big money slot is only one of 9 possible slots.

The probability of dropping a Plinko chip from the center of the board to the $10,000 slot is 231/1024, or ~22.5%.  I won't get into the math here; a Google search on 231/1024 and Plinko should result in longer explanations.  If the chip isn't dropped from the center, the probability of hitting the $10,000 slot drops.

[dale_grass]

Any chip has a roughly 1 in 4 chance of landing in the center slot. Whether it is first, third or last is immaterial and has no bearing on the difficulty of increasing the jackpot.

I get your point, but I'm curious how your math gets you one in four, when the big money slot is only one of 9 possible slots.

The probability of dropping a Plinko chip from the center of the board to the $10,000 slot is 231/1024, or ~22.5%.  I won't get into the math here; a Google search on 231/1024 and Plinko should result in longer explanations.  If the chip isn't dropped from the center, the probability of hitting the $10,000 slot drops.

Except Travis never specified where it was dropped; Pascal's triangle gets woefully discombobulated if a chip is dropped in the, say, second slot.

Or am I just splitting obnoxious hairs?

[MikeK]

Except Travis never specified where it was dropped; Pascal's triangle gets woefully discombobulated if a chip is dropped in the, say, second slot.

It shouldn't be.  Shift Pascal's Triangle in whatever direction you move.  This situation is handled in some of the pages resulting from the Google search I mentioned previously.

[dale_grass]

Except Travis never specified where it was dropped; Pascal's triangle gets woefully discombobulated if a chip is dropped in the, say, second slot.

It shouldn't be.  Shift Pascal's Triangle in whatever direction you move.  This situation is handled in some of the pages resulting from the Google search I mentioned previously.

Sure it is.  The slot directly beneath where you let go of the chip has the most paths leading to it.

[Kevin Prather]

they make it difficult to reset the jackpot. It just doesn't reset if you hit 10K with your 2nd of 5 chips. That increases the odds of the payout reaching its max by Friday (that's the third thing they got right).

Any chip has a roughly 1 in 4 chance of landing in the center slot. Whether it is first, third or last is immaterial and has no bearing on the difficulty of increasing the jackpot.

Let me be sure I'm clear. The jackpot only resets if the LAST plinko chip of the game lands in $10k, right? If that's the case, then that does make it easier for the jackpot to climb as opposed to if any $10k hit reset the jackpot. Isn't that what jjman was driving at?

[Matt Ottinger]

Except Travis never specified where it was dropped; Pascal's triangle gets woefully discombobulated if a chip is dropped in the, say, second slot.

Or am I just splitting obnoxious hairs?

That's kinda my vote.  While we've all seen players drop from all over the place, any of us smart enough to care about the percentages ought to be smart enough to assume we're talking about a center drop.

[TLEberle]

Any chip has a roughly 1 in 4 chance of landing in the center slot.

Just curious: where did you come up with that number?

I think it was nothing more than looking up the ninth row of Pascal's Triangle, taking the middle number and adding all the rest up, and it was 22%.

Edit: You meant any chip dropped dead center, correct?

Correct. If someone wants to reduce the chance of a $10,000 drop by moving all the way over, that's their dime.

[Kevin Prather]

Edit: You meant any chip dropped dead center, correct?

Correct. If someone wants to reduce the chance of a $10,000 drop by moving all the way over, that's their dime.

Which incidentally, isn't that uncommon and not so horrible a strategy. Remember right next to the $10k, you've got two zeroes. Although you'll (virtually) never win the big money, you should be able to give yourself a modest payday by playing to the side, and if that's good enough for you, go for it.

[Unrealtor]

Except Travis never specified where it was dropped; Pascal's triangle gets woefully discombobulated if a chip is dropped in the, say, second slot.

It shouldn't be.  Shift Pascal's Triangle in whatever direction you move.  This situation is handled in some of the pages resulting from the Google search I mentioned previously.

Sure it is.  The slot directly beneath where you let go of the chip has the most paths leading to it.

For one specific trial, it matters. But for a more general "the odds of any given chip landing in $10,000", my gut feeling is that the distribution of where chips are dropped is centered around the middle to the point that it doesn't alter the probabilities of ending up in the center all that much. I would be surprised if the actual rate of chips ending up in the middle slot on the show was below 20%.

[Mr. Armadillo]

Which incidentally, isn't that uncommon and not so horrible a strategy. Remember right next to the $10k, you've got two zeroes. Although you'll (virtually) never win the big money, you should be able to give yourself a modest payday by playing to the side, and if that's good enough for you, go for it.

Why would it be?  You'd have to hit all five zeros before dropping off to the side comes out ahead, since even one $10k hit is twice as good as the best-case scenario that doesn't hit one.  Not to mention that you've STILL got a good shot of missing the center of the board entirely from the middle and ending up in those modest piddling amounts on the edges.

I would be surprised if the actual rate of chips ending up in the middle slot on the show was below 20%.

Believe it or not...

Using historical averages gleamed from Scorpz's site, your typical Price is Right contestant will hit the center slot 14.2% of the time, which means there's a slightly better than even chance (roughly 55%) that the jackpot will not reset before Friday.

[Matt Ottinger]

Using historical averages gleamed from Scorpz's site, your typical Price is Right contestant will hit the center slot 14.2% of the time, which means there's a slightly better than even chance (roughly 55%) that the jackpot will not reset before Friday.

Though I doubt there's any analysis to back this up, even among the analysis-obsessed fans of the show, the difference between what we'd expect (22%) and the actual (14%) is probably most attributable to the players who don't drop from the center.

[J.R.]

Is all of this going to be on the exam?

[TLEberle]

I was told there would be no math.