Pyramid "sneak peek" on GSN

[MikeK]

Notwithstanding that I find the idea of rolling dice for a million dollars farcial on its face, I plugged the numbers into WolframAlpha.com, and found out that there is a 32% chance that absolutely no one would roll Show Down on the come-out roll in forty episodes. Unless you're willing to pay $700,000 over the life of the show's run to offset a million bucks, I can't see that happening.

Take it a step further.  My numbers show there is a 37.3% chance of exactly one Show Down in 40 eps.  Thus, there is an almost 30% chance that there will be multiple Show Downs in 40 shows.

I ran 1000 simulations of 40 sets of shows on one of my fancier calculators.  31.3% of the time had no Show Downs.  37.6% had one instance.  20.1% (over one in five) had 2 wins.  8.8% had 3 wins.  Hell, I even had one result of 6 wins in 40 shows.  If you were GSN (or any other network with a limited amount of money, for that matter), is it worth the almost 30% risk that you will pay out a super-huge jackpot multiple times?

[clemon79]

C'mon Chris.  In the original Big Showdown, it was hit either once (that I saw) or twice and there were 26 weeks of shows.

...for $10,000, or double the jackpot paid for hitting it after the fact, not One Million Damn Dollars.

But you know this because you are trolling, so shame on me for engaging you at all.

[NickS]

C'mon Chris.  In the original Big Showdown, it was hit either once (that I saw) or twice and there were 26 weeks of shows.  So out of aprox. 130 shows the top prize was not hit all but two times.  The odds are that it would come up more often (once every 36 shows) but it did not work out that way.

To paraphrase a caller on Who Ya Crappin:  Stop trollin'.

Answer me where you're going to find a budget for said giveaway.  Possibilities shenanigans of yours aside, tell me how this is good ROI on a cable channel.

[TLEberle]

is it worth the almost 30% risk that you will pay out a super-huge jackpot multiple times?

To which I say "ask the people who produced Russian Roulette, because there's your answer." Two many people win the $100,000 prize and in response the show guts the really awesome bonus game and leaves in place a really bog standard multiple choice affair. Weak sauce.

[MikeK]

is it worth the almost 30% risk that you will pay out a super-huge jackpot multiple times?

To which I say "ask the people who produced Russian Roulette, because there's your answer." Two many people win the $100,000 prize and in response the show guts the really awesome bonus game and leaves in place a really bog standard multiple choice affair. Weak sauce.

That's different since winning Russian Roulette's bonus isn't a random outcome, like rolling Show and Down.  The producers don't know beforehand how likely someone is willing to risk $10K at a worst case scenario 1 in 6 shot at $100K, unless an interview question is "Would you risk $10,000 on a 1 in 6 shot to make $100,000?".

What percent of $10K winners took the $100K risk in that first season?  I don't recall many people winning the first bonus round.

[Jimmy Owen]

C'mon Chris.  In the original Big Showdown, it was hit either once (that I saw) or twice and there were 26 weeks of shows.  So out of aprox. 130 shows the top prize was not hit all but two times.  The odds are that it would come up more often (once every 36 shows) but it did not work out that way.

To paraphrase a caller on Who Ya Crappin:  Stop trollin'.

Answer me where you're going to find a budget for said giveaway.  Possibilities shenanigans of yours aside, tell me how this is good ROI on a cable channel.

I have a feeling too many of us approach game shows with an eye of a producer rather than one of the viewer.  What hooked people on WWTBAM?  The questions, the format or the possibility that someone could win one million dollars?.

[clemon79]

Answer me where you're going to find a budget for said giveaway.  Possibilities shenanigans of yours aside, tell me how this is good ROI on a cable channel.

I have a feeling too many of us approach game shows with an eye of a producer rather than one of the viewer.  What hooked people on WWTBAM?  The questions, the format or the possibility that someone could win one million dollars?.

Way to not answer the question.

[Jimmy Owen]

Answer me where you're going to find a budget for said giveaway.  Possibilities shenanigans of yours aside, tell me how this is good ROI on a cable channel.

I have a feeling too many of us approach game shows with an eye of a producer rather than one of the viewer.  What hooked people on WWTBAM?  The questions, the format or the possibility that someone could win one million dollars?.

Way to not answer the question.

To answer Nick's question, the budget is determined by how much the producers want to spend.  To me, to do 40 shows, you'd need a prize budget equal to the highest payout per show.  If it's not won, you could fund more shows with the overage or use it for other things.  The return on investment would be what you could charge advertisers for reaching more eyeballs than a show with a smaller audience.  Sony and Liberty media are not hurting for money.  Sony invests millions in movies that could flop and Liberty is about to take over Sirius/XM.  I think Howard Stern alone makes about $40 mil now.  How is that good ROI?

In checking further, I guess Liberty is no longer involved with GSN.  I missed that press release.  But Direct TV also makes enough money to fund a high-budget show.  And to take into consideration that the top prize is seldom won, it's not that far-fetched.  Alternatively, you could make shows until you run out of budget, so if your budget is, say, $3 million, make shows until the top prize is won three times.

[Sodboy13]

Where's the Tylenol?

[Jimmy Owen]

Where's the Tylenol?

I've never seen a discussion group so averse to discussion.

[BrandonFG]

Aw jeez, not this shit again!

Just when I thought we were past this.

[Casey Buck]

Somebody has posted the full episode on YouTube:

[chad1m]

The ignore button makes the headaches lessen. I'm tired of really good threads getting detailed by catching the bait.

[TLEberle]

To me, to do 40 shows, you'd need a prize budget equal to the highest payout per show.

Good thing you're not a producer then.

[Jimmy Owen]

To me, to do 40 shows, you'd need a prize budget equal to the highest payout per show.

Good thing you're not a producer then.

So, how would you budget for a game show?