Card Sharks Returning

[TLEberle]

I was goofing--nobody should be running all ten cards in a single turn. Even if they get a fantastic run it would be prudent to bank at the halfway point just in case. The point of a ten card row is to approximate the timing of a regular match from the old days without having the variability of maybe ending in as few as two or as many as eleven questions.

[Otm Shank]

I wouldn't be surprised if the contestant release has a provision that the producer has the discretion to throw out a game that is played too quickly, and just pay out the $10,000 prize. If that were the case, I would expect there to be at least a privately agreed limit, such as a minimum of 3 hands, with the S&P folks. Although the cost of deadheading a game (the production time being much more than the prize) is expensive, it is not unprecedented (Million Dollar Password and a scrapped round of Press Your Luck immediately come to mind).

[trainman]

Some more nitpicky questions: anyone got word about the card art?  1978-1989 style cards (as seen on GS Marathon as well, more or less) or something new?

New designs (both front and back).

[Chuck Sutton]

I will be interesting to see if contestants try to run all 10 in one shot.    I could not figuare out a formula for the odds of making through all 10 without an automatic loss or push.   I was wondering the odds you can't make it across in one shot even if you were perfect on calling high and low.

So I just got a deck ofcards and while watching tv, schuffled and cut them after each attempt.  Of 50 tries,  23 had a push somewhere in 10 cards,  27 did not.  So assuming 50 is a sufficient sample, your of odds of it be impossible in one shot are a little less than 50%>

[TLEberle]

So assuming 50 is a sufficient sample, your of odds of it be impossible in one shot are a little less than 50%>

It isn't. There are people here who are able to write Monte Carlo simulators that can run hundreds of thousands of iterations of your questions so that the vagaries of chance are ironed out.

Assuming that we're only looking at duplicates and not incorrect guesses, I came up with:

1-{[12/13]^9} = 0.513435

as the chance that a contestant will run into a pair in nine calls of the cards. This assumes every call is its own event with an infinitely-sized deck and so not exact, but it's a start. And again that says nothing of guessing wrong or freezing. 

[TLEberle]

continued from previous post:

As to whether people will try to make a perfect run---my guess is unless the cards fall perfectly, no. It is much more advantageous to be one or two cards away from victory going into sudden death than to have had four shots at winning and having made no progress other than maybe changing the base card each time. The other problem is that if Card Sharks takes a page from The Cross-wits and says the person who wins the first question can win a car by executing a perfect run, if that pays off there is a whole lot of stalling in that episode as they have two or three segments with absolutely nothing to do, except maybe drag out the Money Cards.

[Prizes]

As posited by Game Show Theory, 101 viable strategies exist for this revival in the Money Cards, with regards to 'best' strategy. No one solution will fit all for various risk tolerances, but that's why such a great number of concepts exist. You can go for the extremely conservative concept of minimum wagers every go, to assure yourself of $350, with an average value of $1,020.95, sd=$311.38, with a zero bust percentage, since there's so little you're actively choosing to put on the line. On the other side of the extremist coin, hyper-aggression gives you a $5,350 minimum with a $10,216.55 average and sd of $6,816.24, assuming your 10.23% bust chance doesn't happen! This assumes this blogger has the figures right from this edition, but I've always known Dave to be reliable.

Given this raw data, I made the equation of Optimal Wagers, OW, is equal to X*(1-Y). X is the expected end value/money within 1sd, or 84.4% of simulations. Y is the bust percentage, already in decimal form. Then I sorted my data by highest to lowest to factor this in. So, while a decent risk exists employing this strategy, at an 18.57 bust clip percentage, the end value is $4,917.66, leaving you with a target minimum averaging $3,475. To achieve this, bet 30% of your existing pot on 7/9, 60% on 6/10, 90% on 5/Jack, 100% on 4, 3, 2, Queen, King, and Ace. 8s, well, you pass if you can.

[weaklink75]

As posited by Game Show Theory, 101 viable strategies exist for this revival in the Money Cards, with regards to 'best' strategy. No one solution will fit all for various risk tolerances, but that's why such a great number of concepts exist. You can go for the extremely conservative concept of minimum wagers every go, to assure yourself of $350, with an average value of $1,020.95, sd=$311.38, with a zero bust percentage, since there's so little you're actively choosing to put on the line. On the other side of the extremist coin, hyper-aggression gives you a $5,350 minimum with a $10,216.55 average and sd of $6,816.24, assuming your 10.23% bust chance doesn't happen! This assumes this blogger has the figures right from this edition, but I've always known Dave to be reliable.

Given this raw data, I made the equation of Optimal Wagers, OW, is equal to X*(1-Y). X is the expected end value/money within 1sd, or 84.4% of simulations. Y is the bust percentage, already in decimal form. Then I sorted my data by highest to lowest to factor this in. So, while a decent risk exists employing this strategy, at an 18.57 bust clip percentage, the end value is $4,917.66, leaving you with a target minimum averaging $3,475. To achieve this, bet 30% of your existing pot on 7/9, 60% on 6/10, 90% on 5/Jack, 100% on 4, 3, 2, Queen, King, and Ace. 8s, well, you pass if you can.

That doesn't sound right- If what we've been hearing about the MC is right (10K to start, 6 total bets, 1K minimum first 5 bets, 6th Big Bet optional but if you play minimum half your money), if you go minimum every time and miss (and decide to play the Big Bet card and miss) it should be $2,500 left...

10K-(1K*5)-2,500 (Big Bet)=2,500

[TLEberle]

What does it all mean?

[Bob Zager]

Here's a view of the setup of the "Money Cards," board, and the excellent casino look:

https://www.facebook.com/buzzerblog/photos/a.383598448492/10157200301178493/?type=3&theater

[TLEberle]

Buzzerblog == hard pass.

[Bob Zager]

Just stumbled across what appears to be an actual video promo for the show:

[KrisW73]

Is it just me or do the Money Cards look CG?

[BrandonFG]

I was thinking a monitor, but apparently they’re actual cards.

[KrisW73]

I was thinking a monitor, but apparently they’re actual cards.

Thanks Brandon.