MGHS distribution of celebrities and multipliers

[MSTieScott]

Now that we've gotten as many episodes of MGHS as we're ever going to get, I was curious whether the distribution of the 30 multiplier in the Super Match really was random. Toward the end of the run, Gene started making a point of saying that it was random -- did that mean it hadn't been before?

So I used my extremely rudimentary web page creation skills to present the raw data of a) which celebrity sat where in each episode and b) where the multipliers were located in each episode. I was also curious as to how heavily the show favored its male celebrities over its female celebrities, so I color-coded the stars' names to make that information easier to discern.

The page can be found here. I apologize in advance for only knowing enough that I optimized the page specifically for my laptop's screen.

As to my curiosity regarding whether the placement of the 30 was random... with a sample size of 182, it's difficult to tell. I will note that Jon Bauman held the 30 in 8.8% of the known episodes. We saw him with the 10 multiplier 74 times and with the 20 multiplier 79 times. To me, those numbers all seem close enough to the expected value.

The only anomaly that stuck out to my eyes was week 17, in which the same celebrity held the 30 four episodes in a row. Not impossible, but if I'm doing the math correctly, the chances of a celebrity randomly having the 30 for a fourth straight episode are 1 in 729.

I hope others may find this information useful in some way. The gender disparity may turn out to be the more interesting story here -- for example, in only 13 of the 39 weeks were four or more of the eight guest celebrities women.

[Chelsea Thrasher]

for example, in only 13 of the 39 weeks were four or more of the eight guest celebrities women.

Squares, for almost the entirety of the Marshall run, booked their celebrities the exact same way - weeks with only 3 women (almost always placed in the least important squares) were common unless it was a theme week or unless they were paired with a man, and 4 women only became common at about the same frequently as MGHSH in the very late 70s. There are weeks as far as 1979 with only two booked.

The majority of MGHSH staff were Goodson folks per the crew list I looked at - don't know how much of the celebrity booking was influenced by the network, but what you're describing is pretty much note for note what Marshall HS did during its' entire run, right down to the theme weeks.

[knagl]

Ignoring the gender and the particular celebrity (Bauman vs. anyone else), if the placement was random then the 30 should appear in every square approximately evenly.

As you said, it's a small sample size, but are you able to easily use the data to create a 3x3 grid showing how many times and/or the percentage of times the 30 appeared in each square?

[MSTieScott]

The majority of MGHSH staff were Goodson folks per the crew list I looked at - don't know how much of the celebrity booking was influenced by the network, but what you're describing is pretty much note for note what Marshall HS did during its' entire run, right down to the theme weeks.

I just marvel at the fact that even during the Match Game half of the show, they made no effort to balance the panel despite having nearly a decade of evidence that it could be done successfully.

As you said, it's a small sample size, but are you able to easily use the data to create a 3x3 grid showing how many times and/or the percentage of times the 30 appeared in each square?

Not without doing a manual count. But it's Saturday and I'm looking for ways to mindlessly kill a few minutes, so that's exactly what I did. Here are the total appearances, arranged by their positions in the grid:

20 24 21
23 18 20
16 18 22

Jon's lower total sticks out a little more this way. But it's tough to determine whether that's because of chance.

[WhammyPower]

Jon's lower total sticks out a little more this way. But it's tough to determine whether that's because of chance.

You don't happen to have which square was picked by the contestant each time, do you? From the episodes I've seen, it seems like Jon was favored.

[Adam Nedeff]

Now that we've gotten as many episodes of MGHS as we're ever going to get, I was curious whether the distribution of the 30 multiplier in the Super Match really was random. Toward the end of the run, Gene started making a point of saying that it was random -- did that mean it hadn't been before?

Virtually certain it wasn't. A friend pointed this out to my roommate and me early in Buzzr's tenure. The 30 had a tendency to be with a celebrity who had been ignored during "Hollywood Squares." Once he began keeping track of who was called on the least, or who wasn't called on at all, he was able to predict who had the 30 with remarkable accuracy.

[Joe Mello]

20 24 21
23 18 20
16 18 22

Jon's lower total sticks out a little more this way. But it's tough to determine whether that's because of chance.

16 and 24 are each about 1 standard deviation away from the mean of 20, so I'd argue that it would look random to the naked eye.

The bit about it being possibly determined during the taping feels surprising but maybe it shouldn't be.

[chris319]

The majority of MGHSH staff were Goodson folks per the crew list I looked at - don't know how much of the celebrity booking was influenced by the network, but what you're describing is pretty much note for note what Marshall HS did during its' entire run, right down to the theme weeks.

I just marvel at the fact that even during the Match Game half of the show, they made no effort to balance the panel despite having nearly a decade of evidence that it could be done successfully.

As you said, it's a small sample size, but are you able to easily use the data to create a 3x3 grid showing how many times and/or the percentage of times the 30 appeared in each square?

Not without doing a manual count. But it's Saturday and I'm looking for ways to mindlessly kill a few minutes, so that's exactly what I did. Here are the total appearances, arranged by their positions in the grid:

20 24 21
23 18 20
16 18 22

Jon's lower total sticks out a little more this way. But it's tough to determine whether that's because of chance.

11%  13%  11.5%
12.6%  10%  11%
8.8%  10%  12%

[Neumms]

Virtually certain it wasn't. A friend pointed this out to my roommate and me early in Buzzr's tenure. The 30 had a tendency to be with a celebrity who had been ignored during "Hollywood Squares." Once he began keeping track of who was called on the least, or who wasn't called on at all, he was able to predict who had the 30 with remarkable accuracy.

This would be a good idea partly just to nudge them away from picking Bauman, but did they tell the players? Otherwise, all the star gets is a brief close-up.

[TimK2003]

Now that we've gotten as many episodes of MGHS as we're ever going to get, I was curious whether the distribution of the 30 multiplier in the Super Match really was random. Toward the end of the run, Gene started making a point of saying that it was random -- did that mean it hadn't been before?

Virtually certain it wasn't. A friend pointed this out to my roommate and me early in Buzzr's tenure. The 30 had a tendency to be with a celebrity who had been ignored during "Hollywood Squares." Once he began keeping track of who was called on the least, or who wasn't called on at all, he was able to predict who had the 30 with remarkable accuracy.

20 24 21
23 18 20
16 18 22

Jon's lower total sticks out a little more this way. But it's tough to determine whether that's because of chance.

16 and 24 are each about 1 standard deviation away from the mean of 20, so I'd argue that it would look random to the naked eye.

The bit about it being possibly determined during the taping feels surprising but maybe it shouldn't be.

It reminds me of the old Davidson Squares when on the Monday-Thirsday episodes, the "good luck celebrity" when the contestant tried their car key was usually a celebrity that had little to no action during the main game.

The Friday episodes usually had all 9+ celebrities surrounding the chosen car.