Well, I was working in the biz at this point so let me tell you what I know.
Merv easily could have taken out a years worth of nbc wheel in reruns via metromedia if the show had been cancelled. There were enough independent stations looking for content that they would have made a few bucks. But the time periods would have been much weaker. I highly doubt the chance for success the eventual launch realized would have materialized. And there is no jeopardy without a successful syndicated wheel.
The fact that the NBC version continues forced the syndicated version to seek post 4 pm time slots. That in itself created more upside; the Kings were quite strategic as to where they placed their bets. They launched in the fall of 83 with a mere 40 stations and none in the top three markets.
Also keep in mind that joker and tic had faded measurably between 80 and 83, and in many markets the Kings actually closed those deals for Colbert. Philadelphia and Detroit in particular were strong stations that their relationships with the GMs opened up.
Bottom line: from my own observations of P and Ls and numerous conversations with the parties involved—there is a syndicated Wheel, perhaps a first run version, but it likely doesn’t change the course of history, and more than likely keeps jeopardy from launching with similar success
So I suspect we owe a little gratitude to fred Silverman?