The mood on set at the MDS tapings is "Geez, let's get a $1 million winner already" as if it's statistically "overdue". I had adopted that attitude of "I can't believe it hasn't been won yet". But at a gathering of the LA game show brain trust this Saturday (I kid, but there were several working pros) David Hammet, the occasional statistician for game show producers ("Greed", etc.) corrected my attitude.
Althought there are a couple of factors that make a win a little more likely than the purely statistical model, the math works out to reveal that the odds of a single contestant spinning a million dollar win are approximately 1 in 200. With 6 spinners per show (the possible 7th spin at the show's end skews the odds) the format suggests that over the very long haul there would be a winner every 33rd show. While anything is likely with such a small sample size (there have been far fewer than 33 shows), it's not as "overdue" as one might think.
I agree with those who have posted that the 7th attempt at the end of the show is awkward (especially in the event of a double overbid), but it does permit the powerful promotional value of the statement "someone will spin for a million" for each episode.
Not that I'd ever expect to out-think Roger Dobkowitz on such matters, I can't come up with a much better way to select a contestant to fulfill that 7th spin in the event of a double overbid. My only other thought: the contestant who won the most in cash and prizes during the course of the show (excluding the 2 showcase overbidders).
Just idle thoughts.
Randy
tvrandywest.com