Play For A Billion Speculation

[reason1024]

I read that PFAB is going to have 200 contestants this year (instead of 1000?) with each choosing 5 numbers -- so the odds of a billionaire should remain the same.

For the Chicken part of the contest, where players may accept a bribe to leave instead of risking elimination, do you think that the contestants will be told how many numbers they have left "in play" after each elimination -- i.e. after Player 1 leaves, Player 2 might have all 5 numbers closer to the target, and Player 4 might only have 1 number that was better.   That plan might make for better TV, if a player decides to stick it out with his last remaining number.

On the other hand, last year it seemed like too many players were taking the bribe (was it like 7 out of 10?) and Drew didn't get to work his schtick.  It could be the 5 numbers are there to make people more confident of their chances and stick around, despite the fact that the odds don't change.

Guesses?  (or facts, if anyone knows for sure!)

[goongas]

The reason they have five numbers each instead of one is simple, they wanted to save some moneyt.  Why should they fly in one thousand people and have only ten or so of them play when they can only fly in 200?

[SplitSecond]

I have to imagine that it's the 7 closest *players*, rather than the 7 closest numbers.  As before, once the players are ranked from closest to farthest, only the rank is relevant, not the number.  

Likewise, once the eventual winner collects all his/her numbers, the amount of numbers he/she has is irrelevant.  All that's relevant is whether the closest number matches the Billion Dollar Number.

[Neumms]

Also, it's the chance at the MILLION that would affect their decision more than the rather slim chance of a billion.

Does it seem to anyone that it would change one's strategy once they've seen last year's show? Seems like one incentive for bailing out early would be the fear that the host will quit offering the trade. When you know you'll have chances to bail out for more money, you might hold out longer.

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'Neumms\' date=\'Sep 9 2004, 04:59 PM\'] Seems like one incentive for bailing out early would be the fear that the host will quit offering the trade. When you know you'll have chances to bail out for more money, you might hold out longer. [/quote]
 No, the incentive for bailing out early is one thing and one thing only: that if you DON'T, and everyone else makes that same decision, your name is the next one up in the envelope.

High-stakes chicken, and your own self-doubt. That's it.

[TLEberle]

The rather nasty dilemma they've set up is that the bail out value is never even close to the expected value that it should be, so from the math side, it's a million or bust.  On the other hand, at least you could win some money.  That's why it works, I guess.

But when it's all said and done, it's that one number that matters, as far as the Billion Dollars is concerned.

If anyone cares, yes, you can find the big ten-sided dice they used on the show, you just have to look for 'em.

[Neumms]

[quote name=\'clemon79\' date=\'Sep 9 2004, 09:10 PM\']
No, the incentive for bailing out early is one thing and one thing only: that if you DON'T, and everyone else makes that same decision, your name is the next one up in the envelope.

High-stakes chicken, and your own self-doubt. That's it. [/quote]
 High-Stakes Chicken could be a pretty good show on Fox.

You're probably right, but I still wonder if one might decline whatever Tom's offering to bail-out at first, risking that cash hoping to survive until Tom ups his offer. And, of course, some will play it like Barbara Stanwyck and Fred MacMurray--"straight down the line, baby."