TPIR Impossibilities...

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'whoserman\' date=\'Jan 5 2005, 10:03 PM\']I was actually thinking about this the other day. Is there a rule against using aces as negative numbers to bring your bid down? They do say you can make them anything you wish.

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I would think there must be. Otherwise the game is reduced to simply bidding on the car, since you would draw until you pulled an ace and then say "I'd like my bid to be X."

(Personally, I liked it back in the day when the maximum bid on an ace was the same $1,000 you got for a face card.)

[CarShark]

[quote name=\'clemon79\' date=\'Jan 6 2005, 12:13 AM\'](Personally, I liked it back in the day when the maximum bid on an ace was the same $1,000 you got for a face card.)

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At least saving the ace for later would make sense strategy-wise then.

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'STYDfan\' date=\'Jan 6 2005, 08:11 AM\'][quote name=\'clemon79\' date=\'Jan 6 2005, 12:13 AM\'](Personally, I liked it back in the day when the maximum bid on an ace was the same $1,000 you got for a face card.)

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At least saving the ace for later would make sense strategy-wise then.

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Well, back in the day you didn't get to hold onto it, either.  I believe those two innovations were introduced to the game at the same time.

(Just shut up now, Zach.)

[SRIV94]

[quote name=\'That Don Guy\' date=\'Jan 5 2005, 10:54 PM\'][quote name=\'SRIV94\' date=\'Jan 5 2005, 09:46 PM\']We've got six (which is more than the current number of wins of my alma mater's one-time proud basketball program).
[/quote]

(#1-6: Let 'Em Roll, Plinko, 1/2 Off, Spelling Bee, Pass the Buck, Check-Out)
#7: Hole In One Or Two - you can win the car even if the second price is lower than the first one.
#8: Dice Game (roll a combination of 1s/6s/correct digits)
#9 (a stretch, but so is Check-Out): Hit Me - you can stand on the first two cards and it is possible for the house to go over.

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My take is that these games are games that can be won without the game having to be played.  You still have to make the putt in "HI1O2" to win the car.  I see your point about "Dice Game," but it does take some skill to be able to roll the 1, 6 or proper digit in all four rolls ("Plinko" is similar, but you do get one free chip just for playing).  Contrast that with the other games, where you could win something essentially just by standing on stage.

And I thought we had established that "Temptation" was number 6 (you do get four prizes for doing nothing, but you only keep them if you walk away or go for the car and get it).

Doug

[Matt Ottinger]

[quote name=\'SRIV94\' date=\'Jan 6 2005, 03:16 PM\'] I see your point about "Dice Game," but it does take some skill to be able to roll the 1, 6 or proper digit in all four rolls [/quote]
I think you mean it takes some luck.

At least I hope that's what you mean.

[starcade]

[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' date=\'Jan 6 2005, 10:16 PM\'][quote name=\'SRIV94\' date=\'Jan 6 2005, 03:16 PM\'] I see your point about "Dice Game," but it does take some skill to be able to roll the 1, 6 or proper digit in all four rolls [/quote]
I think you mean it takes some luck.

At least I hope that's what you mean.

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1/81 if the four numbers are all 1 or 6.

More likely than that if they aren't -- all the way down to 1/16 if all four numbers (of the price of the car, not the rolls, as above) are not 1 or 6.

[MSTieScott]

[quote name=\'clemon79\' date=\'Jan 6 2005, 12:13 AM\'](Personally, I liked it back in the day when the maximum bid on an ace was the same $1,000 you got for a face card.)

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Not I. With the current rules, an ace means we're spared the tedium of watching a contestant draw cards for two minutes straight (especially when it's one of those contestants who has to look to the audience for every decision every single time). And since the show is crunched for time every day anyway, an early ace really helps the rest of the show stay relaxed.

--
Scott Robinson

[SRIV94]

[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' date=\'Jan 6 2005, 09:16 PM\'][quote name=\'SRIV94\' date=\'Jan 6 2005, 03:16 PM\'] I see your point about "Dice Game," but it does take some skill to be able to roll the 1, 6 or proper digit in all four rolls [/quote]
I think you mean it takes some luck.

At least I hope that's what you mean.

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What I was thinking (which is probably dead wrong) is that someone who was comfortable enough with dice could skillfully roll a 1 or a 6 on command.  That's where I got the skill aspect.  Taking luck into the equation kind of went without saying, in my jaded and misguided view (but there are quite a number of TPiR games where luck and skill both play a part).

The main point that I was trying to make, though, is that you can't win "Dice Game" simply by walking up on stage (unlike "Half Off" [1/16 chance to win $10,000] or "Pass The Buck" [2/3 chance to win at least $1000; 1/6 to win a car] or "Let 'Em Roll" [$500 guaranteed] where you conceivably could).

I took very little probability in school, so perhaps Starcade could help me compute this--what are the odds of rolling five cars in one roll on "Let 'Em Roll" (15 cars, 5 $1500s, 5 $1000s and 5 $500s)?

Doug

[Steve Gavazzi]

[quote name=\'That Don Guy\' date=\'Jan 5 2005, 11:54 PM\'](#1-6: Let 'Em Roll, Plinko, 1/2 Off, Spelling Bee, Pass the Buck, Check-Out)
#7: Hole In One Or Two - you can win the car even if the second price is lower than the first one.
#8: Dice Game (roll a combination of 1s/6s/correct digits)
#9 (a stretch, but so is Check-Out): Hit Me - you can stand on the first two cards and it is possible for the house to go over.

(And if you're counting retired games, include On The Nose and, to a lesser extent, Mystery Price (you can bid, say, $1 on each item) and Give Or Keep (you get the three items you "kept" even if they total less than the items you "gave").  If winning one item counts, add Trader Bob, as losing players kept the last item received in a trade.)

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Well, if we're going for some kind of count, throw Finish Line in there along with Give or Keep.

[Steve McClellan]

[quote name=\'SRIV94\' date=\'Jan 6 2005, 08:22 PM\']I took very little probability in school, so perhaps Starcade could help me compute this--what are the odds of rolling five cars in one roll on "Let 'Em Roll" (15 cars, 5 $1500s, 5 $1000s and 5 $500s)?

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Hmm...

[quote name=\'gameshowsteve\' date=\'Jan 5 2005, 11:52 AM\'][quote name=\'fostergray82\' date=\'Jan 5 2005, 11:39 AM\'][A one-roll Let 'em Roll win has] happened once or twice. [/quote]
Well, solely from a mathematical standpoint, it should happen once every 32 playings, so that's not at all surprising.

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(Each cube has three of six sides showing cars - the odds are (1/2)^5.)

[SRIV94]

[quote name=\'gameshowsteve\' date=\'Jan 6 2005, 11:41 PM\']Hmm...

[quote name=\'gameshowsteve\' date=\'Jan 5 2005, 11:52 AM\'][quote name=\'fostergray82\' date=\'Jan 5 2005, 11:39 AM\'][A one-roll Let 'em Roll win has] happened once or twice. [/quote]
Well, solely from a mathematical standpoint, it should happen once every 32 playings, so that's not at all surprising.

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(Each cube has three of six sides showing cars - the odds are (1/2)^5.)

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Whoops.  See, if we could have more than seven messages per page, I might've remembered that (yeah--that's the ticket).  

Doug

[GS Warehouse]

[quote name=\'starcade\' date=\'Jan 6 2005, 10:58 PM\']1/81 if the four numbers are all 1 or 6.

More likely than that if they aren't -- all the way down to 1/16 if all four numbers (of the price of the car, not the rolls, as above) are not 1 or 6.

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Let's assume you don't roll any ones or sixes, and none of the numbers you roll match the actual number.  If you always go with the odds (higher on 2 or 3, lower on 4 or 5), your odds increase from 50% to 70% (14 out of 20) for each number.

[font=\"Courier\"]# 1 2 3 4 5 6
2 W - R R R R
3 W W - R R R
4 R R R - W W
5 R R R R - W[/font]
(R = right; W = wrong)

In this case, the odds of winning increase from 1/16 (6.25%) to (0.70) ^ 4 = 24.01%.

[starcade]

I'm talking actually cinching it...

If each of the four numbers is 1 or 6, there's a 1/3 chance on each roll.  (1/3)^4 = 1/81 to roll them all or get the free guess.

If all of them are not 1 or 6, then you get the right number or the two free guesses.  1/2 chance of that, and 1/16 for the four rolls.

So the probabilities of a cinch win are somewhere in that area.

The "odds" do come into play, but how many times have we seen "higher than a 2" end up a 1???

[starcade]

[quote name=\'MSTieScott\' date=\'Jan 6 2005, 11:05 PM\'][quote name=\'clemon79\' date=\'Jan 6 2005, 12:13 AM\'](Personally, I liked it back in the day when the maximum bid on an ace was the same $1,000 you got for a face card.)

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Not I. With the current rules, an ace means we're spared the tedium of watching a contestant draw cards for two minutes straight (especially when it's one of those contestants who has to look to the audience for every decision every single time). And since the show is crunched for time every day anyway, an early ace really helps the rest of the show stay relaxed.

--
Scott Robinson

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Agreed.  I'd let an ace be "what is your bid on the car?", even if it does have to go backwards...

[starcade]

[quote name=\'SRIV94\' date=\'Jan 6 2005, 11:22 PM\'][quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' date=\'Jan 6 2005, 09:16 PM\'][quote name=\'SRIV94\' date=\'Jan 6 2005, 03:16 PM\'] I see your point about "Dice Game," but it does take some skill to be able to roll the 1, 6 or proper digit in all four rolls [/quote]
I think you mean it takes some luck.

At least I hope that's what you mean.

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What I was thinking (which is probably dead wrong) is that someone who was comfortable enough with dice could skillfully roll a 1 or a 6 on command.  That's where I got the skill aspect.  Taking luck into the equation kind of went without saying, in my jaded and misguided view (but there are quite a number of TPiR games where luck and skill both play a part).

The main point that I was trying to make, though, is that you can't win "Dice Game" simply by walking up on stage (unlike "Half Off" [1/16 chance to win $10,000] or "Pass The Buck" [2/3 chance to win at least $1000; 1/6 to win a car] or "Let 'Em Roll" [$500 guaranteed] where you conceivably could).

I took very little probability in school, so perhaps Starcade could help me compute this--what are the odds of rolling five cars in one roll on "Let 'Em Roll" (15 cars, 5 $1500s, 5 $1000s and 5 $500s)?

Doug

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(1/2)^5 = 1/32.

3 cars out of every 6-sided die means 1/2 chance to roll a car on one die.  Five dice as an independent event at that point.