Deal Or No Deal Game

[Steve McClellan]

[quote name=\'Gus\' date=\'Jul 28 2005, 11:42 PM\']Incidentally, out of curiosity, does anyone know what the algorithm actually is for determining the bank offer?[/quote]
The nine offers are 10%, 25%, 45%, 58%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 95%, and 100%, respectively, of the average value of all unrevealed cases.

It would seem that someone with the an episode or two in their collection could rather easily see if those numbers hold true for the show. Or, give me the picks and offer amounts, and I'll crunch the numbers myself.

[dscungio]

[quote name=\'Steve McClellan\' date=\'Jul 29 2005, 05:29 AM\'][quote name=\'Gus\' date=\'Jul 28 2005, 11:42 PM\']Incidentally, out of curiosity, does anyone know what the algorithm actually is for determining the bank offer?[/quote]
The nine offers are 10%, 25%, 45%, 58%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 95%, and 100%, respectively, of the average value of all unrevealed cases.

It would seem that someone with the an episode or two in their collection could rather easily see if those numbers hold true for the show. Or, give me the picks and offer amounts, and I'll crunch the numbers myself.

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[/quote]

You are correct on the values for the homemade online game.

I've done research about this online, and as far as I can tell, there may be no formula on the show.

If you look at Brig's page on DoND, there is a female contestant who, at the second bribe, is offered $1,875 when the average value is $11,072.  $1,875 is 16.9% of $11,072.  If you go to the Australian Game Show Page, the male contestant pictured is at the same point in the game, but his bribe is $6,750 when the average is $28,209. That's 23.9%.  It's the same point in the game, but different percentages are offered.

The message boards that I've seen elsewhere speculate that the producers must be choosing the values.  If they want the contestant to continue, then they will offer a small amount to start, hence the $650 offer on Brig's page.  As the contestant goes on, the value increases closer to the average, making it more difficult for the player to continue.  I've seen it go over the average as the contestant reaches the end of the game.

I'm sure that if one of us got on the show, then the required contestant release would include the formula in the rules, much like how "The Weakest Link" was determined.



-Dean

[Brig Bother]

The message boards that I've seen elsewhere speculate that the producers must be choosing the values. 

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I think this is the truth - the bank is often referred to in the literature as "the 27th player".

I think it would be reasonable to suggest that the offer will usually fall somewhere between the median and the mean average of the values left, tending towards the mean as the game progresses. There's really no point in ever bailing out after the first round, but because there is such a premium on the highest valued briefcases (if you notice, the value jump increases as they get towards the end), you can still offer something around the median of the cases left which will look derisory but because there will always be many much higher valued suitcases left the player will inevitably play on.

[tvwxman]

[quote name=\'Craig Karlberg\' date=\'Jul 29 2005, 03:35 AM\']
I believe the way the bribe works is they take what's left on the board moneywise divided by the number of cases still left unopened(including the one the player holds).  This yeilds the average ammount.  Thus, the bamk bribe is that average. 

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And I belive that you're wrong. Again.

[Abroxas]

In the television show, the Bank Offer is written by a person or group of people behind the scenes. It factors in the psychology of the player, how many cases left to open, how far into the show they are, how isolated the top amounts are, how they decided on the last deal, sometimes its even affected by Andrew O'Keefe.


In the game, however, none of this occurs. Its just the average divided by a number that decreases each time to simulate how bank offers rise as the show progresses (it'd be a very boring half-hour if the player dealed in the first round).

[MrGameShow]

Wow.. lots of speculation here.  I don't know the real answer either, but I think there's been a lot of BS thrown around in here.

Like any kind of lottery show, (that's what I term this - I know it's not a "scratch and win" type.. but bare with me) there's an independant firm that does the filling of the briefcases. Thus only a select group has the true identity of where the amounts lie.  [Think like how WWTBAM writers have no interaction with contestant people.]

It factors in the psychology of the player, how many cases left to open, how far into the show they are, how isolated the top amounts are, how they decided on the last deal, sometimes its even affected by Andrew O'Keefe.

If ANY show was affected by these factors, they'd toss Granny Smith out the door, and "Bibo" (from Super Millionaire?) silly amounts to watch the excitement build. Then Standards and Practices would smack them up and down Hollywood Blvd!

If I were a betting man, I'd totally agree that there HAS TO BE a mathematic formula to figure out the Bank Offer, because manually having production staff going "Yeah, I heard he's living in a rat infested basement apartment.. let's bump his up a couple thousand.." to "She's a snotty little biotch - offer her less" would be against every game show rulebook out there.

I'm sure there must be a distinct way of determining it - we just don't have the proper Aussie contacts to figure it out..

[SamJ93]

Well, the author has apparently updated and fine-tuned the game, thanking us for pointing out some flaws and helping to fix some bugs.

I didn't notice any immediate change, but hey, whatever works...

And yes, this game is surprisingly addicting...even though it's basically just a statistics/probability game, the desire to "beat" the odds is compelling.  The question is...will it be as fun to watch as it is to play?

[Abroxas]

If I were a betting man, I'd totally agree that there HAS TO BE a mathematic formula to figure out the Bank Offer

There may be a loose one, but I've seen plenty of episodes in my time and I'm sure that there is a Banker playing behind the scenes. For example, in one episode the host stated that if the top amount wasn't knocked off, the Bank would offer about $20,000. The offer came up as $19,999.

In fact, 'teasing' offers like this are a common occurence. If players are hesitant, the offers are generally lower as they're likely to take whatever they're offered next. I'm not sure what will happen with the American one, but in Australia the offer is not solely based on a mathematical formula.

[Brig Bother]

The Endemol website quite clearly says "unseen player", by the way. If this is the case, that it definitely is the producer vs the player, wouldn't that get round standards and practices?

In most of the big money versions I've seen there's a brief chat with "referee" who puts the values in the briefcases who (obviously) insists that he's the only person who knows what is inside each box.