Author Topic: Game Strategy (Read 6681 times)

Ian Wallis · « **on:** December 20, 2005, 09:14:43 AM »

OK - we've analyzed the production of the show quite well - and we all seem to agree there's not much of a "game" there.

However, if you were a contestant on the show what would your strategy be?

On the first night's show, when it came down to the final four of $75, $500, $50,000 and $500,000, the bank offer was $138,000.

I would have taken the $138,000 at that point.

How about you - would any of you have taken the bank offer earlier, or would you have gone on to see if the big one was in your suitcase?

Dbacksfan12 · « **Reply #1 on:** December 20, 2005, 09:21:12 AM »

[quote name=\'Ian Wallis\' date=\'Dec 20 2005, 09:14 AM\']On the first night's show, when it came down to the final four of $75, $500, $50,000 and $500,000, the bank offer was $138,000.

I would have taken the $138,000 at that point.
[/quote]
I only have a 25% chance of doing better than $138,000. I'd take the money--without hesitation.

goongas · « **Reply #2 on:** December 20, 2005, 09:47:12 AM »

I probably would have taken the $138,000, but one could argue that you have a 75% chance of getting a better offer from the bank if you continue. I wouldn't have taken any bank offer before that point.

Matt Ottinger · « **Reply #3 on:** December 20, 2005, 10:26:24 AM »

As my wife and I were watching, we realized that the only play-at-home element is to decide -- honestly -- where (or if) you would take the Deal as you're watching the show. I personally pulled the trigger early, at $53,000 I think it was. My wife "stopped" at $90,000. Both of us beat the studio contestant, but of course the Bank ended up going even higher.

I absolutely would have taken the $138,000 with four cases left, but if I'm playing the game honestly, I didn't have the chance to make that decision.

tvmitch · « **Reply #4 on:** December 20, 2005, 10:51:19 AM »

If I was on the show, my exit fee would be $100K unless I was doing particularly well and had no chance to lose that amount.

I would have left last night with $138K. The odds were spot-on for her to walk just then. That's a LOT of cash.

TV Favorites · « **Reply #5 on:** December 20, 2005, 11:49:48 AM »

I would have definitely stopped at the $138K offer. With the chance at $1M or $500K, some people get caught up in those high figures and forget how much $138K is. That's more than most people make in a year.

Dbacksfan12 · « **Reply #6 on:** December 20, 2005, 11:58:30 AM »

[quote name=\'TV Favorites\' date=\'Dec 20 2005, 11:49 AM\']That's more than most people make in a year.
[/quote]
It goes back three years, but according to this page, the highest average median income was in Maryland, $55,912. $138,000 is 2.47 times greater. Comparatively, its 4.59 times greater than West Virginia's $30,072.

clemon79 · « **Reply #7 on:** December 20, 2005, 12:00:23 PM »

[quote name=\'Ian Wallis\' date=\'Dec 20 2005, 06:14 AM\']How about you - would any of you have taken the bank offer earlier, or would you have gone on to see if the big one was in your suitcase?

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I was ready to get the hell out the offer before the $138K...what was it, $117K or so? I thought she was an abject fool for not walking at $138K, and it pleased me greatly to see her get screwed.

Matt's right, though...the topheavyness of the board really makes the first three or so bank offers a completely moot point, because it's almost a dead certainty that the next offer is going to be higher. It seems like in an effort to get Mo Money out there, the NBC folks don't really realize they broke the game.

DrBear · « **Reply #8 on:** December 20, 2005, 12:36:32 PM »

I thought the game strategy here would be:

1. Remove coin from pocket.

2. Flip it.

Kevin Prather · « **Reply #9 on:** December 20, 2005, 01:46:52 PM »

Upon the $138,000 offer, I either had a 100% chance of avoiding the $500k (If I had it in my case,) or I had a 67% chance of avoiding the $500k (If I didn't.) No way in hell am I risking about 80% of my money on a 67% shot.

Gromit · « **Reply #10 on:** December 20, 2005, 05:45:35 PM »

I'd go forward until I'm at risk of removing that last huge case, the point where my offer will absolutely drop through the floor if I choose that one. Last night, that was the $138K offer.

You'd have to be insanely unlucky to remove the top two or three left at one shot and not reach that point.

I think most games will come down to this point.

chris319 · « **Reply #11 on:** December 20, 2005, 06:08:51 PM »

Quote

As my wife and I were watching, we realized that the only play-at-home element is to decide -- honestly -- where (or if) you would take the Deal as you're watching the show. I personally pulled the trigger early, at $53,000 I think it was. My wife "stopped" at $90,000.

OK, now how much more nonsense did you have to sit through after making those decisions before the game on TV came to a conclusion?

The game drags on too long, no doubt about it. I hate to keep harking back to LMAD, but they had the pacing right. You can take the refrigerator, what's behind the curtain, or the money Monty is offering you. Whatever the contestant decides, you have resolution within a minute or two.

Matt Ottinger · « **Reply #12 on:** December 20, 2005, 08:14:29 PM »

[quote name=\'chris319\' date=\'Dec 20 2005, 07:08 PM\']

Quote

As my wife and I were watching, we realized that the only play-at-home element is to decide -- honestly -- where (or if) you would take the Deal as you're watching the show. I personally pulled the trigger early, at $53,000 I think it was. My wife "stopped" at $90,000.

OK, now how much more nonsense did you have to sit through after making those decisions before the game on TV came to a conclusion?[/quote]
Gotta love TiVo.

Matt Ottinger · « **Reply #13 on:** December 20, 2005, 10:58:21 PM »

[quote name=\'Gromit\' date=\'Dec 20 2005, 06:45 PM\']I'd go forward until I'm at risk of removing that last huge case, the point where my offer will absolutely drop through the floor if I choose that one. Last night, that was the $138K offer.[/quote]
If I understand you right, I think you're saying that you'd bail when you got to the point that there was only one huge case left. That's actually a pretty good strategy, since that lone case is likely still going to be enough to create a large bank. Of course, depending on what round you're in, it might be possible that you'll be forced to reveal all the huge cases before you get your next offer.

Unrealtor · « **Reply #14 on:** December 21, 2005, 12:04:59 AM »

[quote name=\'clemon79\' date=\'Dec 20 2005, 11:00 AM\']Matt's right, though...the topheavyness of the board really makes the first three or so bank offers a completely moot point, because it's almost a dead certainty that the next offer is going to be higher. It seems like in an effort to get Mo Money out there, the NBC folks don't really realize they broke the game.

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Top-heavy may be a bit of an understatement. The average value of a case is $131,477.54 at the beginning of the game and the average value of remaining cases should go up from there.

While $131,477.54 actually sounds like a good baseline to consider when given an offer, does it actually mean anything once you know more about the situation and the expected value of your case rather than a case?