The Game Show Forum
The Game Show Forum => The Big Board => Topic started by: Dbacksfan12 on September 07, 2006, 11:44:34 AM
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You were playing Let 'Em Roll...and you roll five of the $1500 squares for a total of $7500.
Let's say in example "a" the car is a Ford Focus...and in example "b" the car is slightly nicer, say a Mazda Miata.
Do you take the $7500 or go for the car?
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Take the dough. I haven't seen anybody win a car in two rolls, and that's a nice chunk of change. If I rolled $4500 and two cars, I'd still probably take the money.
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I'd definetly take the cash. It would be a longshot to me, if I'd go for it.
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I think we had a thread similar to this not too long ago, or at the very least an offshot discussion from a recap. I'd take any sum of money presented to me on TPIR because I'd hate to pay exorbitant taxes just to keep a prize I didn't want in the first place.
-Jason
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There wouldn't really be a second thought: take the $7500! Sure; maybe I don't win a car, but that's a VERY nice sum of money, and certainly more than I'd ever think of winning being on TPIR. Heck, I think my threshold would be a lot lower than that...say, maybe $4000...:)
Plus, just looking at the game's history, how many times have we seen people need only two rolls to win the car? So, even if it's a car that I want, the odds seem to be more likely that I'll not only lose the car, but end up with significantly less money.
And, let's face it; I'd win the Showcase Showdown and win a Showcase with a car in it, anyway, so I don't need to be greedy and take two cars...;).
Anthony
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Take the money. It's a sure thing, and $7,500 is not a bad chunk of money. I don't have much use for a new car, and even though I could sell it off and make more than the $7,500, I'd still have to WIN the car first. :-P
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I would take the $7500 because if I roll twice that money amount would decrease and I could wind up with either 2, 3 maybe 4 car symbols.
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For practical purposes, the money. Tax on $7500 is a lot less than on what's probably a $20,000 car. That car would have to be a hell and a half more than just a Focus for me to want to keep it.
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Coming from someone who actually drives a Ford Focus, I'd definitely take the money. What the hell would I want with two of 'em? ;)
With the amount of Focuses (Foci?) they seem to be chucking at contestants these days, and with my luck, odds are I'd end up playing for another one. But $7,500 - probably more along the lines of around $6K after taxes - regardless of whether or not I already drive one of them, would be my choice.
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Money, honey.
Of course, I'd also take the $2500 on Spelling Bee.
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cash. no contest. anytime.
best winner at the show i saw taped in June....kid wins a 2700 refridgerator with a lcd tv in it (it's a one bid prize to get up on stage).....dob tells him after the show the manufacturer is out of em , or they're not for sale anymore, and tells the kid he's getting 2700 in cash instead.
nice.
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Don't you guys realize what taking the money does to their prize budget??? Try to have some compassion! Taking the money=bankrupting the show.
I think I'd take the money, to heck with the budget.
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[quote name=\'JasonA1\' post=\'130604\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 12:14 PM\']I'd take any sum of money presented to me on TPIR because I'd hate to pay exorbitant taxes just to keep a prize I didn't want in the first place.[/quote]
You don't want a mid-range car/low-range convertible? Heck, you wouldn't want a car in general?
As much as the car would please me, I'd take the $7,500 unless it was one hell of a car. Outside of winning, you can only do worse and we've seen way too many people end the game with 4 cars and $500.
/Because someone's going to say you can't have a Mazda Miata (especially since the only one left is the MX-5 convertible) on TPIR, we could use the American equivalent, which would be a Pontiac Solstice, which is still a nice piece of vehicle in my opinion.
//I know only the MX-5 is left because it's part of the file I have for prizes in my netgames, like the one in my sig, which is currently taking sign-ups. :)
///Yay subtle self-promotion.
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Funny how you wonder if I'd want a car in general, then follow that up with stating you'd take the cash. No, I don't wanna pay in excess of 5-grand in taxes in one lump sum for a car I'm not thrilled about. It'll be a car I want on my terms, one which I'd be well on my way to with $7,500 pre-taxes.
-Jason
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That was more of a general question as opposed to this specific instance, since your statement seemed general.
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[quote name=\'Jimmy Owen\' post=\'130620\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 12:06 PM\']
Don't you guys realize what taking the money does to their prize budget??? Try to have some compassion! Taking the money=bankrupting the show.
[/quote]
I lol'd. Unfortunately, then I cried, knowing there are chuckleheads on Other Message Boards who believe exactly that.
[quote name=\'Joe Mello\' post=\'130624\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 12:24 PM\']
You don't want a mid-range car/low-range convertible? Heck, you wouldn't want a car in general?
[/quote]
Already have one, thanks. Given the choice between a little less than $6K after taxes and a vehicle I would have to a) pay taxes on, and b) jump through hoops to sell? Gimme the cash. Especially because winning the vehicle is IN NO WAY a sure thing.
Basically Mark's asking if I would take the largest possible consolation prize versus what is exactly a 50% chance of winning a car. You do the math and it's a ridiculous question. After taxes, EV of going for the car (assuming Miata; for the Focus it's not even worth discussing) is roughly $8K in merchandise, and that doesn't even figure in depreciation and ownership costs. (And depreciation just by itself knocks another $1600 off of that, right off the top, the second you accept delivery.) EV of the money is about $6000 in spendable cash. Unless you were planning to go out and buy that very car the next day anyhow, it's a no-brainer.
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Actually, not even 50%. Remember, you only have two rolls. And revisiting the Let 'em Roll Probability Principle (http://\"http://gameshow.ipbhost.com/index.php?showtopic=4610&st=0&p=45655&#entry45655\") (ok, so Karlberg can be annoying, but his name for it is catchy), your odds are acutally less than one-in-four:
(1 - (.5 ^ n)) ^ c
(1 - (.5 ^ 2)) ^ 5 = about 0.2373
That had better be a REALLY nice car for me to not take the money
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Yeah, you're right. I think I wasn't taking into account that there are five separate events here that all have to fall into place for the win to occur.
Proves my point all the more, though, since that drops the EV of playing for the car well WELL below that of taking the cash.
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For me, personally, I'd take the money.
Two reasons: a, cars require $$$ to keep on the road (assuming I kept it) and b, no import duties on cash.
Canadians should always take the money, no matter how much (7500 LeR, $8K PtB) or how little ($2,500 SB, fishbowl of cash Temptation).
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Okay, now that I've figured out how to convey what I'm trying to get at, I will:
If you won any car for any reason, would you decline it (as I believe you are able to do with any prize)?
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[quote name=\'Joe Mello\' post=\'130645\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 03:08 PM\']
If you won any car for any reason, would you decline it (as I believe you are able to do with any prize)?
[/quote]
In and of itself, with no alternatives? Of course not. A car would be one of the easier prizes to turn around into cash, at the very least. You sell it for well below invoice value, you'd likely get a buyer in no time, and you still come out ahead a few grand at the worst, with minimal effort.
Would I decline the gazebo lumped into that same Showcase? Oh Gawd yes. I live in a third-floor apartment, and trying to turn THAT around would be hellish.
But that wasn't Mark's original question. He asked us to select between two circumstances leading to two different potential prizes. Different animal entirely. He thought it was an interesting even choice, but I think between me and Gene we pretty much demonstrated how lopsided it actually is.
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[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'130653\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 05:56 PM\']
But that wasn't Mark's original question. He asked us to select between two circumstances leading to two different potential prizes. Different animal entirely. He thought it was an interesting even choice, but I think between me and Gene we pretty much demonstrated how lopsided it actually is.
[/quote]
I was more interested in seeing if people would say "no" to the Focus and "yes" to a car that is perceived to be of better quality.
For the record, I'd take the money in a heartbeat.
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As for me, put me down with the "cash over cars" respondants.
I'd much rather play and win big on the pricing games which net a good chunk of cash.
Then (along with winning $6 or $11K additional on the big wheel), I wouldn't mind winning a few big ticket prizes in the Showcase. By that time, you've got enough cash to pretty much pay any tax liabilities on all the prizes you win and still have a nice little pay day!
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[quote name=\'Modor\' post=\'130656\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 03:58 PM\']
I was more interested in seeing if people would say "no" to the Focus and "yes" to a car that is perceived to be of better quality.
[/quote]
Sure. The problem is that, in order to have the EV of both options be the same (which is the only way you get to anything approaching an interesting discussion, and even THEN) the "better" car needs to be a Mercedes. :)
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$7500....minus taxes...equals a decent downpayment on a truck I'd want - not a Ford Focus, plus have you ever seen a 6 foot 4 guy try to get into a Focus? :)
Money makes the world go round...and this time there would be no second guess, I'd take the $7500- a bird in the hand etc.
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[quote name=\'KrisW73\' post=\'130662\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 07:43 PM\']
$7500....minus taxes...equals a decent downpayment on a truck I'd want - not a Ford Focus, plus have you ever seen a 6 foot 4 guy try to get into a Focus? :)[/quote]
Yes. I test-drove one in 2000. Until then, I never knew Ford dealerships had crowbars on site to pull us tall people out of cars so easily. :-)
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[quote name=\'Joe Mello\' post=\'130624\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 03:24 PM\']///Yay subtle self-promotion.[/quote]
[color=\"#FF0000\"][mutes Joe][/color] [Reali]Self-promotion is the mating call of the mute button![/Reali]
Seriously, I'd take the money. The odds of getting five $1500s to begin with are much less than getting five cars, so who knows, if I did that I may have a place in the TPiR record book!
/it's more of a table or a cabinet door than a book
//according to Marc Green's site
///and FYI, I drive a Volvo
////one made long before Ford got their mitts on that make
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[quote name=\'MikeK\' post=\'130663\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 07:51 PM\']
Yes. I test-drove one in 2000. Until then, I never knew Ford dealerships had crowbars on site to pull us tall people out of cars so easily. :-)
[/quote]
Thank you for the laugh- I had the same issue in 2004- the dealer is still trying to get the crowbar marks out of that car.
/Why do I have a feeling someday someone in a Bob Rulz t-shirt will have that scenario handed to them, and not take the cash?
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I'd definately take the cash. But would your strategy change if you rolled 2 Cars on the first roll and had $4000 showing? It would be a tough decision at that point whether to go on or not.
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Here's another one-- in "Grand Game", what would you do if, having made it to $1000, you were given the choice of taking that and stopping or risking it against picking the last item that was under the target price (which, I believe, is the choice that is always given in that game)?
Me, I'd say, "Bob, I'm really not sure, as I've never played this game here before, much less any game, but I believe that I should stand and take the $1000 I already have, because any one of them could go either way. I don't want to risk $1000 against a 1/3 shot of winning $10,000 or a 2/3 shot of losing the $1000. If I stand, I have $1000, but if I risk and I am wrong, just like you said, I lose the $1000, but then again, there is a $10,000 prize to be won; it is still probably not worth the risk to me though."
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[quote name=\'b_masters9\' post=\'130676\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 09:17 PM\']
Here's another one-- in "Grand Game", what would you do if, having made it to $1000, you were given the choice of taking that and stopping or risking it against picking the last item that was under the target price (which, I believe, is the choice that is always given in that game)?
Me, I'd say,
<Snipped a really long explanation as to why you'd stop>
[/quote]
To each their own. But given the EV and the fact that it's cash versus cash, I'm going for it.
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[quote name=\'b_masters9\' post=\'130676\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 07:17 PM\']
Here's another one-- in "Grand Game", what would you do if, having made it to $1000, you were given the choice of taking that and stopping or risking it against picking the last item that was under the target price (which, I believe, is the choice that is always given in that game)?[/quote]The thing is, this is less interesting than the Let 'em Win dilemma that Mark originally posed.
1) You're being paid 9:1 for a 1-in-3 chance, and that's if you were to pick blindly.
2) You're not picking blindly. Of the three remaining items, one of them will be less than the target price. Choose the least expensive item to win $10,000. I will take that option daily, twice on Sunday and three times on a national holiday. $1,000? Barely going to cover expenses to get to 33 after taxes. $10,000? Not gonna change my life substantially, really, but it's still a nice enough chunk of change that I'd take the flyer. And I'm one of the most risk-averse people I know.
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[quote name=\'b_masters9\' post=\'130676\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 07:17 PM\']
Me, I'd say, "Bob, I'm really not sure, as I've never played this game here before, much less any game, but I believe that I should stand and take the $1000 I already have, because any one of them could go either way. I don't want to risk $1000 against a 1/3 shot of winning $10,000 or a 2/3 shot of losing the $1000. If I stand, I have $1000, but if I risk and I am wrong, just like you said, I lose the $1000, but then again, there is a $10,000 prize to be won; it is still probably not worth the risk to me though."
[/quote]
And then Dobkowitz would have to replace that playing of Card Game later in the show with Double Prices, after you left the show running way heavy with that ridiculously obvious and completely insight-free "observation".
(Of course, more likely, when you babbled on endlessly in your interview out in line, you would be passed over for yet-another-someone in a BOB ROOLZ shirt. For a change, it would be the correct decision.)
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[quote name=\'JasonA1\' post=\'130604\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 11:14 AM\']
I think we had a thread similar to this not too long ago, or at the very least an offshot discussion from a recap.
[/quote]
It was attempted, but a certain person who likes gelitan (http://\"http://gameshow.ipbhost.com/index.php?showtopic=10480&st=30\") prevented any worthwhile discussion.
Anyhow, my apologies for not double checking.
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[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'130689\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 11:44 PM\']
[quote name=\'b_masters9\' post=\'130676\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 07:17 PM\']
Me, I'd say, "Bob, I'm really not sure, as I've never played this game here before, much less any game, but I believe that I should stand and take the $1000 I already have, because any one of them could go either way. I don't want to risk $1000 against a 1/3 shot of winning $10,000 or a 2/3 shot of losing the $1000. If I stand, I have $1000, but if I risk and I am wrong, just like you said, I lose the $1000, but then again, there is a $10,000 prize to be won; it is still probably not worth the risk to me though."
[/quote]
And then Dobkowitz would have to replace that playing of Card Game later in the show with Double Prices, after you left the show running way heavy with that ridiculously obvious and completely insight-free "observation".
(Of course, more likely, when you babbled on endlessly in your interview out in line, you would be passed over for yet-another-someone in a BOB ROOLZ shirt. For a change, it would be the correct decision.)
[/quote]
Well, if that be the case, then I'd cut down on it and say, "I'm sticking with the $1000." If the audience tries to get me to go, Bob would probably say "It's not your money-- it's his money."
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[quote name=\'b_masters9\' post=\'130676\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 07:17 PM\']
Well, if that be the case, then I'd cut down on it and say, "I'm sticking with the $1000." If the audience tries to get me to go, Bob would probably say "It's not your money-- it's his money."
[/quote]
And then everyone at home would be thinking what a nutless wimp you are.
Cripes...if you aren't smart enough to identify which of three products costs least, my fervent hope would be that you also spin .05 and then $1.00 on the wheel.
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[quote name=\'b_masters9\' post=\'130742\' date=\'Sep 8 2006, 02:32 PM\']
Well, if that be the case, then I'd cut down on it and say, "I'm sticking with the $1000." If the audience tries to get me to go, Bob would probably say "It's not your money-- it's his money."
[/quote]
Anyone else here having an Ed Grimley moment, or is it just me?
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[quote name=\'b_masters9\' post=\'130742\' date=\'Sep 8 2006, 05:32 PM\']Well, if that be the case, then I'd cut down on it and say, "I'm sticking with the $1000." If the audience tries to get me to go, Bob would probably say "It's not your money-- it's his money."[/quote]
Time for basic statistics/probability with Mr. Klauss.
The likelihood of picking the item under $x.xx at that stage is 1/3. If you can easily eliminate one item, it's now 1/2. Your expected value (EV mentioned earlier) is (1/3)($10,000) + (2/3)($0), which is $3333.33. That means if you play on, theoretical probability says you should make $2333.33 each time you play. If you can remove with certainty one item from the three given, your EV jumps to $5000, a gain of $4000.
It's worth the gamble, especially when you consider that $1000 after taxes would barely cover expenses, if at all after you include the taxes which you'll have to pay on the prize which got you on stage. Going on makes for good TV as well.
If you want to stop, that's your prerogative. Your game play strategy is absolutely horrible. You don't have to have big brass balls to play on when the likelihood of you winning is no worse than 1 in 3.
[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'130760\' date=\'Sep 8 2006, 06:50 PM\']Anyone else here having an Ed Grimley moment, or is it just me?[/quote]
I don't know. Does he have a framed picture of Pat Sajak hanging in his living room? :-)
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[quote name=\'MikeK\' post=\'130761\' date=\'Sep 8 2006, 03:55 PM\']
Time for basic statistics/probability with Mr. Klauss.
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If you want to stop, that's your prerogative. Your game play strategy is absolutely horrible. You don't have to have big brass balls to play on when the likelihood of you winning is no worse than 1 in 3.
[/quote]
You're giving him credit for having way more of a clue than he does, I think.
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[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'130765\' date=\'Sep 8 2006, 07:31 PM\']You're giving him credit for having way more of a clue than he does, I think.[/quote]
I had that feeling. It was worth a shot.
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I'd keep the cash...
I love my year old Saturn Vue and $7,500 is great... I'd even keep $3,500!!
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Frankly, I don't want a Ford product, period. (the attitude of a few ford dealers did me in from ever buying another Ford)
If the vehicle is a Jeep, I'd sure try for it. Jeep makes a quality product that holds its resale value.
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I would always take the cash at any opportunity I could (But I would gamble the $1000 on "Grand Game").
I would, in fact, pick the largest numbers on "Money Game" so I could just win the money!
-Joe R.