The Game Show Forum
The Game Show Forum => The Big Board => Topic started by: Bryce L. on January 18, 2012, 07:12:31 PM
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I know on the classic "Millionaire" (by "Classic", I mean the original ABC Primetime shows and the pre-clock era of Meredith's run), that if someone walked away on a question, once they confirmed they were done, the host would sometimes ask them "If you had to go for it, what would you have chosen?" My question is, were there a lot of cases where the "after-the-fact" guess by the player would have been the winning answer, if they had indeed said "Final Answer"?
In particular, any cases where, if they HAD pulled the trigger, they would have won the million?
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My question is, were there a lot of cases where the "after-the-fact" guess by the player would have been the winning answer, if they had indeed said "Final Answer"?
My guess is about one in four had the correct answer.
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My guess is about one in four had the correct answer.
I'll say "Higher".
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My guess is about one in four had the correct answer.
I'll say "Higher".
I think the correct answer might be whoosh. Maybe.
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I think the correct answer might be whoosh. Maybe.
In whose case? I'm saying that if there are four choices, one in four rabbit hunts will pay off. And that remains the case from $4,000 on up.
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OK, let me rephrase my question in a more specific manner. Are there any confirmed incidents of a player walking away after seeing a $250,000, $500,000 or $1 million question, and having a correct after-the-fact guess?
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I'm saying that if there are four choices, one in four rabbit hunts will pay off. And that remains the case from $4,000 on up.
Yeah, but that is assuming that the choice is being made by a monkey pulling a pool ball out of a bag, as opposed to a human being who in most cases has a little bit of informed logic as to what the answer might be. By definition if but a single contestant walks instead of picking a horse when they *know* they have it narrowed down to two, then the mean success rate should be better than 25%.
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Yeah, but that is assuming that the choice is being made by a monkey pulling a pool ball out of a bag, as opposed to a human being who in most cases has a little bit of informed logic as to what the answer might be. By definition if but a single contestant walks instead of picking a horse when they *know* they have it narrowed down to two, then the mean success rate should be better than 25%.
Acknowledged, but I don't know what Bryce means by "a lot", because I don't pay attention to the after-play guesses, because they don't pay off in cash. As such I can't quantify the rate of correctness, though I'll cede that it is closer to one-in-three than one-in-four.
/There were/are also times where a contestant has no idea as to the correct answer, but their a posteriori guess is sometimes right.
//Quite a lot of the Decaplet of Destiny contestants gave the correct answer but refused to gamble.
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Yeah, but that is assuming that the choice is being made by a monkey pulling a pool ball out of a bag, as opposed to a human being who in most cases has a little bit of informed logic as to what the answer might be. By definition if but a single contestant walks instead of picking a horse when they *know* they have it narrowed down to two, then the mean success rate should be better than 25%.
Acknowledged, but I don't know what Bryce means by "a lot", because I don't pay attention to the after-play guesses, because they don't pay off in cash. As such I can't quantify the rate of correctness, though I'll cede that it is closer to one-in-three than one-in-four.
/There were/are also times where a contestant has no idea as to the correct answer, but their a posteriori guess is sometimes right.
//Quite a lot of the Decaplet of Destiny contestants gave the correct answer but refused to gamble.
OK, another clarification... "a lot" means "a somewhat common occurrence". Contrast to a "mark your calendars" moment, if that helps...
I would like to hope that there aren't too many cases of someone being definitely on the right track when discussing the active question, almost to the point of saying "final answer" to the winning answer, but just not being able to summon the courage to go with their instinct. Seeing a moment of that sort is almost as painful, in my personal opinion, as a case of someone being overly confident on a question, with the end result being them locking in a wrong answer and losing a ton of money (the ultimate overconfident player being Ken "Give Me a Million Dollars" Basin)
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I think the correct answer might be whoosh. Maybe.
In whose case? I'm saying that if there are four choices, one in four rabbit hunts will pay off. And that remains the case from $4,000 on up.
Yes. Which I got and Thunder didn't. Ergo...
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Yes. Which I got and Thunder didn't. Ergo...
Gotcha.
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To answer Bryce's question, there were five cases of balking on a MDQ when having the right answer: Tom O'Brien, Norm MacDonald, Pat Thompson, Mary Burke and Ogi Ogas. O'Brien and Thompson made it pretty clear that they were wild-ass guessing, while Burke had a faint idea, and Norm and Ogi seemed to be pretty close to going for it. There have been numerous of these cases on the $500,000 question, and I would imagine even more on the $250,000.
ETA: I forgot about the Tournament of Ten that Jeremy mentioned in the next post.
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OK, let me rephrase my question in a more specific manner. Are there any confirmed incidents of a player walking away after seeing a $250,000, $500,000 or $1 million question, and having a correct after-the-fact guess?
Ogi Ogas saw a million dollar question and had the right answer- many of the players in the Tournament of Ten did as well.
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O'Brien and Thompson made it pretty clear that they were wild-ass guessing
OK, I think I can speak to at least one part of this statement. To me, anything less than 100% certainty on the $1M answer -- certainty like you know your own name -- constitutes a guess. Something in the back of my head was pushing me toward one answer, but without that 100% certainty, I wasn't going to guess (in my definition, if not anyone else's) and risk losing $468,000.
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Seeing a moment of that sort is almost as painful, in my personal opinion, as a case of someone being overly confident on a question, with the end result being them locking in a wrong answer and losing a ton of money
I really don't understand this. Watching someone not win another $250,000 isn't painful, because they're already going home with a bundle of cash. Watching someone go for it and be wrong sucks, but they're still going home with some cash as well.
Know what's really painful? Watching as a stock I'm invested in is pulled from an exchange because it can't stay over a dollar a share. Or having my sister call me up from the Gorge telling me how much fun she's having at the concert she's at, which she was able to buy tickets for because I lent her the money. While I'm out in the dog kennel cleaning up What Dogs Do(o). That's actual money, not numbers on a screen. I dislike losing actual money. I don't care about a chyroned number.
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Seeing a moment of that sort is almost as painful, in my personal opinion, as a case of someone being overly confident on a question, with the end result being them locking in a wrong answer and losing a ton of money
I really don't understand this. Watching someone not win another $250,000 isn't painful, because they're already going home with a bundle of cash. Watching someone go for it and be wrong sucks, but they're still going home with some cash as well.
Know what's really painful? Watching as a stock I'm invested in is pulled from an exchange because it can't stay over a dollar a share. Or having my sister call me up from the Gorge telling me how much fun she's having at the concert she's at, which she was able to buy tickets for because I lent her the money. While I'm out in the dog kennel cleaning up What Dogs Do(o). That's actual money, not numbers on a screen. I dislike losing actual money. I don't care about a chyroned number.
OK maybe them not winning when they could have may not be painful to the viewer, but think from the player's POV. Sure they may have left with $500,000 in their wallet, which is nothing to scoff at, by any means... but somewhere in the back of that player's mind, the thought must occur to them "I wish I could have been more sure of myself on that last question..." Like Nancy Christy told Ken Basin prior to his $1 million question, "You know more than you think you do."
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$500,000, properly sheltered, is enough to fully fund a standard IRA for an entire working career. In the back of my mind, at $500,000, I'm thinking, "I don't have to worry when I get old", and "not having to contribute to my retirement from my work income will boost my current standard of living tremendously because all that freed-up money takes care of the mortgage almost by itself". I don't think much past that. And if I do think much past that, it probably goes something like, "Holy Farking Shite!"
Statements like your last one just reiterate that you have no grasp on the meaningfulness of a $500,000 windfall in the average American's life, and this is all so incredibly theoretical as to be more than a tad insulting.
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but somewhere in the back of that player's mind, the thought must occur to them "I wish I could have been more sure of myself on that last question..."
That sort of thinking is a really quick and easy way to make the rest of your life miserable. Be happy and grateful with whatever you got, because it's more than you came in with. And remember you had an experience which most people don't ever get to have...and stop worrying about what might have been.
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Excuse me for being logical, but wouldn't the odds for just guessing be one in four? And wouldn't that mean that, on average, when contestants are asked "what would you have said" the percentage would be around 25 percent, with perhaps a little extra because some of the answers are clearly wrong?
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And wouldn't that mean that, on average, when contestants are asked "what would you have said" the percentage would be around 25 percent, with perhaps a little extra because some of the answers are clearly wrong?
This is my point, though I think you are giving the contestants less credit than I. The MINIMUM percentage is 25 percent assuming no logic, reason, use of lifelines, or any kind of incidental knowledge whatsoever in making their selection. If you mark off a grass field into fourths and turn a cow loose up in there for some Millionaire Bossy Bingo, then it's 25%. The contestants, being sentient beings, have a bit more of an advantage than that.
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That sort of thinking is a really quick and easy way to make the rest of your life miserable. Be happy and grateful with whatever you got, because it's more than you came in with. And remember you had an experience which most people don't ever get to have...and stop worrying about what might have been.
This, this, this. Thank you, Tom, for giving a true "player's POV" as opposed to Bryce's theoretical one.
[quote name='Bryce L.']OK maybe them not winning when they could have may not be painful to the viewer, but think from the player's POV. Sure they may have left with $500,000 in their wallet, which is nothing to scoff at, by any means... but somewhere in the back of that player's mind, the thought must occur to them "I wish I could have been more sure of myself on that last question..."[/quote]
As I have stated before, if I ever get on the show, I'm going to have those big numbers in mind and would like to think I'll be willing to take some gambles to get them. That said, $500,000 is very real money, and any contestant who is upset over winning "only" $500,000 is invited to take the check and perform an anatomical impossibility with it.
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That said, $500,000 is very real money, and any contestant who is upset over winning "only" $500,000 is invited to take the check and perform an anatomical impossibility with it.
Impossible is a mighty strong word. Those checks roll up into a tube quite easily, and you can always laminate it if you're concerned about the paper strength.
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Impossible is a mighty strong word. Those checks roll up into a tube quite easily, and you can always laminate it if you're concerned about the paper strength.
Laminate will make it smoother too.
/What?
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I think Kevin forgot that Millionaire gives out regular-sized checks instead of those massive cardboard ones. :)
/the worst thing about those is that they hurt coming out
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HypothetiCal. A contestant is looking at the $500k question and says
'meredith; i have a very strong hunch. but the risk is too much. i am going to leave. However. I request that you not reveal the correct answer until ive left the studio.'
theyd do that right? '
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HypothetiCal. A contestant is looking at the $500k question and says
'meredith; i have a very strong hunch. but the risk is too much. i am going to leave. However. I request that you not reveal the correct answer until ive left the studio.'
theyd do that right? '
"Good for him, winning $250,000. As for the correct answer, look it up yourself. Up next, we have Cletus Franks from Kentucky."
/wow
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'meredith; i have a very strong hunch. but the risk is too much. i am going to leave. However. I request that you not reveal the correct answer until ive left the studio.'
theyd do that right?
I doubt it. Nor should they. Dude just got handed $250K; he is not in a position to dictate terms.
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HypothetiCal. A contestant is looking at the $500k question and says
'meredith; i have a very strong hunch. but the risk is too much. i am going to leave. However. I request that you not reveal the correct answer until ive left the studio.'
theyd do that right?
Nope. He has every right not to say what his choice would have been (and some have done specifically that), but the show isn't made for him, it's made for the viewers, and the viewers have to have that moment.
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You gotta be freakin' kidding me.
"Officer, I acknowledge I was going 15mph over the limit so I'll take my ticket. But I request you ship it to me FedEx instead of handing it to me here".
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You gotta be freakin' kidding me.
"Officer, I acknowledge I was going 15mph over the limit so I'll take my ticket. But I request you ship it to me FedEx instead of handing it to me here".
Okay, now, that's exaggerating, don't you think?
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No more so than the Giants beating the Pats again in the "big game". ;)
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No more so than the Giants beating the Pats again in the "big game". ;)
Gotta get there first. :)
And that's on both ends, FTR. Toughies both.
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"Officer, I acknowledge I was going 15mph over the limit so I'll take my ticket. But I request you ship it to me FedEx instead of handing it to me here".
Oh, come now. I'm not saying the OP's original notion isn't idiotic, but this simply couldn't be a bigger strawman.
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theyd do that right? '
Sometimes Regis would reveal the answer if he hadn't done so in the aftermath of the bail out. They're not going to pointedly not reveal an answer, because as people have said, that's not their job. Their job is to ask questions and reveal answers.
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They're not going to pointedly not reveal an answer, because as people have said, that's not their job.
I think Toetyper was suggesting that they would stop down tape, wait patiently for the contestant to be on his way, and then pick back up with the taping, all in the name of saving the contestant's fragile ego. To which I say, in addition to Matt's point of "hey, you're a contestant, part of the job that they are paying you an INSANE hourly rate for is to suck it up and give them whatever reaction you're going to give to news like that", that if they can actually get past that, and the contestant would like the studio costs for that whole exercise taken out of their post-tax winnings, dandy.
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OK maybe them not winning when they could have may not be painful to the viewer, but think from the player's POV. Sure they may have left with $500,000 in their wallet, which is nothing to scoff at, by any means... but somewhere in the back of that player's mind, the thought must occur to them "I wish I could have been more sure of myself on that last question..."
You are treating this like the players are playing for Monopoly money or Chuck E. Cheese tokens, and that is just not the case. You are saying that people have regrets like it is something new. That isn't so either. You have been told by no less an authority than one of the $500,000 winners (hey, did you make sure to add him to your list of Q15 players?) and yet you still refuse to back down from this point. You are watching something at home and seeing something from a different perspective than the person who is actually making those serious financial decisions. Leave the money choices to the big boys, your rotisserie Jeopardy league is where you left it.
Like Nancy Christy told Ken Basin prior to his $1 million question, "You know more than you think you do."
What does this have to do with anything? Or mean?
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your rotisserie Jeopardy league is where you left it.
Where can I sign up?
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your rotisserie Jeopardy league is where you left it.
Where can I sign up?
*sigh* You'll end up drafting a superstar in the 16th round...again. And Mark Odor will troll the waiver wire for winners of the previous episode. ;-)