What Would You Do?

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'Jimmy Owen\' post=\'130620\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 12:06 PM\']
Don't you guys realize what taking the money does to their prize budget???  Try to have some compassion!  Taking the money=bankrupting the show.
[/quote]
I lol'd. Unfortunately, then I cried, knowing there are chuckleheads on Other Message Boards who believe exactly that.
[quote name=\'Joe Mello\' post=\'130624\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 12:24 PM\']
You don't want a mid-range car/low-range convertible?  Heck, you wouldn't want a car in general?
[/quote]
Already have one, thanks. Given the choice between a little less than $6K after taxes and a vehicle I would have to a) pay taxes on, and b) jump through hoops to sell? Gimme the cash. Especially because winning the vehicle is IN NO WAY a sure thing.

Basically Mark's asking if I would take the largest possible consolation prize versus what is exactly a 50% chance of winning a car. You do the math and it's a ridiculous question. After taxes, EV of going for the car (assuming Miata; for the Focus it's not even worth discussing) is roughly $8K in merchandise, and that doesn't even figure in depreciation and ownership costs. (And depreciation just by itself knocks another $1600 off of that, right off the top, the second you accept delivery.) EV of the money is about $6000 in spendable cash. Unless you were planning to go out and buy that very car the next day anyhow, it's a no-brainer.

[parliboy]

Actually, not even 50%.  Remember, you only have two rolls.  And revisiting the Let 'em Roll Probability Principle (ok, so Karlberg can be annoying, but his name for it is catchy),  your odds are acutally less than one-in-four:

(1 - (.5 ^ n)) ^ c

(1 - (.5 ^ 2)) ^ 5 = about 0.2373

That had better be a REALLY nice car for me to not take the money

[clemon79]

Yeah, you're right. I think I wasn't taking into account that there are five separate events here that all have to fall into place for the win to occur.

Proves my point all the more, though, since that drops the EV of playing for the car well WELL below that of taking the cash.

[JayDLewis]

For me, personally, I'd take the money.

Two reasons: a, cars require $$$ to keep on the road (assuming I kept it) and b, no import duties on cash.

Canadians should always take the money, no matter how much (7500 LeR, $8K PtB) or how little ($2,500 SB, fishbowl of cash Temptation).

[Joe Mello]

Okay, now that I've figured out how to convey what I'm trying to get at, I will:

If you won any car for any reason, would you decline it (as I believe you are able to do with any prize)?

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'Joe Mello\' post=\'130645\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 03:08 PM\']
If you won any car for any reason, would you decline it (as I believe you are able to do with any prize)?
[/quote]
In and of itself, with no alternatives? Of course not. A car would be one of the easier prizes to turn around into cash, at the very least. You sell it for well below invoice value, you'd likely get a buyer in no time, and you still come out ahead a few grand at the worst, with minimal effort.

Would I decline the gazebo lumped into that same Showcase? Oh Gawd yes. I live in a third-floor apartment, and trying to turn THAT around would be hellish.

But that wasn't Mark's original question. He asked us to select between two circumstances leading to two different potential prizes. Different animal entirely. He thought it was an interesting even choice, but I think between me and Gene we pretty much demonstrated how lopsided it actually is.

[Dbacksfan12]

[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'130653\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 05:56 PM\']
But that wasn't Mark's original question. He asked us to select between two circumstances leading to two different potential prizes. Different animal entirely. He thought it was an interesting even choice, but I think between me and Gene we pretty much demonstrated how lopsided it actually is.
[/quote]
I was more interested in seeing if people would say "no" to the Focus and "yes" to a car that is perceived to be of better quality.

For the record, I'd take the money in a heartbeat.

[TimK2003]

As for me, put me down with the "cash over cars" respondants.

I'd much rather play and win big on the pricing games which net a good chunk of cash.  

Then (along with winning $6 or $11K additional on the big wheel), I wouldn't mind winning a few big ticket prizes in the Showcase.  By that time, you've got enough cash to pretty much pay any tax liabilities on all the prizes you win and still have a nice little pay day!

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'Modor\' post=\'130656\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 03:58 PM\']
I was more interested in seeing if people would say "no" to the Focus and "yes" to a car that is perceived to be of better quality.
[/quote]
Sure. The problem is that, in order to have the EV of both options be the same (which is the only way you get to anything approaching an interesting discussion, and even THEN) the "better" car needs to be a Mercedes.

[KrisW73]

$7500....minus taxes...equals a decent downpayment on a truck I'd want - not a Ford Focus, plus have you ever seen a 6 foot 4 guy try to get into a Focus?

Money makes the world go round...and this time there would be no second guess, I'd take the $7500-  a bird in the hand etc.

[MikeK]

[quote name=\'KrisW73\' post=\'130662\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 07:43 PM\']
$7500....minus taxes...equals a decent downpayment on a truck I'd want - not a Ford Focus, plus have you ever seen a 6 foot 4 guy try to get into a Focus? [/quote]
Yes.  I test-drove one in 2000.  Until then, I never knew Ford dealerships had crowbars on site to pull us tall people out of cars so easily. :-)

[GS Warehouse]

[quote name=\'Joe Mello\' post=\'130624\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 03:24 PM\']///Yay subtle self-promotion.[/quote]
[color=\"#FF0000\"][mutes Joe][/color] [Reali]Self-promotion is the mating call of the mute button![/Reali]

Seriously, I'd take the money.  The odds of getting five $1500s to begin with are much less than getting five cars, so who knows, if I did that I may have a place in the TPiR record book!

/it's more of a table or a cabinet door than a book
//according to Marc Green's site
///and FYI, I drive a Volvo
////one made long before Ford got their mitts on that make

[KrisW73]

[quote name=\'MikeK\' post=\'130663\' date=\'Sep 7 2006, 07:51 PM\']
Yes.  I test-drove one in 2000.  Until then, I never knew Ford dealerships had crowbars on site to pull us tall people out of cars so easily. :-)
[/quote]


Thank you for the laugh- I had the same issue in 2004- the dealer is still trying to get the crowbar marks out of that car.

/Why do I have a feeling someday someone in a Bob Rulz t-shirt will have that scenario handed to them, and not take the cash?

[Ian Wallis]

I'd definately take the cash.  But would your strategy change if you rolled 2 Cars on the first roll and had $4000 showing?  It would be a tough decision at that point whether to go on or not.

[b_masters9]

Here's another one-- in "Grand Game", what would you do if, having made it to $1000, you were given the choice of taking that and stopping or risking it against picking the last item that was under the target price (which, I believe, is the choice that is always given in that game)?

Me, I'd say, "Bob, I'm really not sure, as I've never played this game here before, much less any game, but I believe that I should stand and take the $1000 I already have, because any one of them could go either way. I don't want to risk $1000 against a 1/3 shot of winning $10,000 or a 2/3 shot of losing the $1000. If I stand, I have $1000, but if I risk and I am wrong, just like you said, I lose the $1000, but then again, there is a $10,000 prize to be won; it is still probably not worth the risk to me though."