[quote name=\'Robert Hutchinson\' post=\'194243\' date=\'Aug 15 2008, 09:19 PM\']
Thought the second: 4 numbers with 1 strike chip isn't THAT much easier than 5 numbers with 1 strike chip, especially since the first number is usually much easier to place. I don't see why they can't still play for more expensive cars, at least occasionally.
[/quote]
I was bored of the Olympics this evening and had nothing better to do, so I wrote a simulator. In the simulator, guesses are random but no digit/position guess is repeated. Over a few million trials, I got:
5 digits, 1 strike ("old" format): 33% of games won
4 digits, 1 strike ("new" format): 44% won
5 digits, 3 strikes (never played, I think): 13% won
4 digits, 3 strikes (the original format, recently revived for one playing): 21% won
So the new probability is about 1/3 higher than it used to be. It's too bad it's apparently a part of the general "car game" rotation because an expected value of $16,000 per playing (a $48,000 car every third time under the old rules), would still work out to a pretty nice $36,000 car with the new win percentage.