Author Topic: Jeopardy! Daily Double Strategy (Read 5243 times)

tvmitch · « **on:** January 18, 2011, 03:57:24 PM »

Lots of you are suckers for J! wagering questions, so here's one I've been thinking about.

Is there any advantage to betting an odd-hundred amount on a Daily Double, such as $300 or $2100? I think I've seen this more often lately, the odd "$1500 wager."

Does an odd wager give you an advantage over the folks who stay even? I really don't see it...and maybe it's my OCD kicking in, but I would want to stay with the even numbers for even's sake. And maybe the math is easier.

clemon79 · « **Reply #1 on:** January 18, 2011, 03:58:43 PM »

[quote name=\'tvmitch\' post=\'254960\' date=\'Jan 18 2011, 12:57 PM\']I really don't see it...and maybe it's my OCD kicking in, but I would want to stay with the even numbers for even's sake. And maybe the math is easier.[/quote]
It's the OCD.

Mr. Armadillo · « **Reply #2 on:** January 18, 2011, 04:38:51 PM »

Maybe the people who make the odd wagers don't want the math to be easier...but I guarantee you and I are worrying about it more than the contestants.

clemon79 · « **Reply #3 on:** January 18, 2011, 04:44:35 PM »

[quote name=\'Mr. Armadillo\' post=\'254964\' date=\'Jan 18 2011, 01:38 PM\']Maybe the people who make the odd wagers don't want the math to be easier...but I guarantee you and I are worrying about it more than the contestants.[/quote]
One has to think that if you are basing your playing strategy on your opponents making a math mistake, when you're essentially given all of the time you need to do that math, you have bigger problems with your game than those that might be overcome with a math error.

Kevin Prather · « **Reply #4 on:** January 18, 2011, 04:45:37 PM »

[quote name=\'Mr. Armadillo\' post=\'254964\' date=\'Jan 18 2011, 01:38 PM\']Maybe the people who make the odd wagers don't want the math to be easier...but I guarantee you and I are worrying about it more than the contestants.[/quote]
This is the only explanation, outside of "no reason in particular", I can think of. Kind of like in big online poker tournaments, players bet 3,812,438 to make the pot odds that much harder to calculate. If a J! Player wagers something like $4286, either he's just screwing around, or he's doing this.

Mr. Armadillo · « **Reply #5 on:** January 18, 2011, 04:54:01 PM »

[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'254966\' date=\'Jan 18 2011, 03:44 PM\'][quote name=\'Mr. Armadillo\' post=\'254964\' date=\'Jan 18 2011, 01:38 PM\']Maybe the people who make the odd wagers don't want the math to be easier...but I guarantee you and I are worrying about it more than the contestants.[/quote]
One has to think that if you are basing your playing strategy on your opponents making a math mistake, when you're essentially given all of the time you need to do that math, you have bigger problems with your game than those that might be overcome with a math error.
[/quote]
Don't get me wrong, I'm agreeing with you. The answer is definitely OCD on our part.

I can see an outside scenario where making an odd wager MIGHT make a difference approximately one in 3,812,438 games (you're in second place by $x dollars, but don't want to wager $x+200 for whatever reason, so you bet $x+100), but that gets into overthinking again.

gameshowcrazy · « **Reply #6 on:** January 18, 2011, 06:15:11 PM »

The best reason to do this is simply to mess with your opponents, and for those that say that it won't mess with a contestant who is any good in the first place, you really need to face the fact that most Jeopardy players have no idea what they are doing on their wagers in the final.

Chuck Sutton · « **Reply #7 on:** January 19, 2011, 10:19:41 AM »

There was a tournament a few years back where a player did make an uneven bet on a daily double. It appeared to just be a lark. However, he had it to the finals because the leader did his math wrong.

TLEberle · « **Reply #8 on:** January 19, 2011, 10:36:20 PM »

[quote name=\'gameshowcrazy\' post=\'254988\' date=\'Jan 18 2011, 03:15 PM\']The best reason to do this is simply to mess with your opponents, and for those that say that it won't mess with a contestant who is any good in the first place, you really need to face the fact that most Jeopardy players have no idea what they are doing on their wagers in the final.[/quote]If you are making a Daily Double bet based upon whether you think you can cloud the brain of your opposition, you may as well holster your button and sit down, because you've lost the game right there. You are admitting that you can't beat the other two people on stage with you, at least not cleanly, and that you have to resort to trickery to put one over on them.

There is a difference between being able to recognize a situation where if you make a particular bet you'll increase the chances of winning whether you're right or you aren't, and being able to take a number and add it to itself. Given pencil, paper and a few seconds, I can multiply 73 by two. Or 46 by two. I think most people who have proven themselves competent enough to be allowed to share the stage with Alex can do that. Just because people don't make the optimal wager every single time does't mean they have "no idea what they're doing" and I'm tired of this particular meme.

[quote name=\'Chuck Sutton\' post=\'255032\' date=\'Jan 19 2011, 07:19 AM\']There was a tournament a few years back where a player did make an uneven bet on a daily double. It appeared to just be a lark. However, he had it to the finals because the leader did his math wrong.[/quote]Had it to the finals? What does it mean?

Joe Mello · « **Reply #9 on:** January 19, 2011, 11:29:52 PM »

IIRC, one contestant bet a strange amount on an early DD and got it wrong. After the time out, Alex asked why. The contestant's answer was along the lines of "If I got it right, my score would be a palindrome."

Multiples of 500 are still easy math when you're trying to quickly gague position.

Thunder · « **Reply #10 on:** January 20, 2011, 12:32:01 AM »

[quote name=\'TLEberle\' post=\'255084\' date=\'Jan 19 2011, 10:36 PM\']...If you are making a Daily Double bet based upon whether you think you can cloud the brain of your opposition, you may as well holster your button and sit down, because you've lost the game right there. You are admitting that you can't beat the other two people on stage with you, at least not cleanly, and that you have to resort to trickery to put one over on them...[/quote]

Jeopardy! mental trickery can be a quite profitable strategy.

[quote name=\'TLEberle\' post=\'255084\' date=\'Jan 19 2011, 10:36 PM\']Had it to the finals? What does it mean?[/quote]

Cut "had". Replace with "made". Ta-da.

Mr. Armadillo · « **Reply #11 on:** January 20, 2011, 11:37:13 AM »

[quote name=\'TLEberle\' post=\'255084\' date=\'Jan 19 2011, 09:36 PM\'][quote name=\'gameshowcrazy\' post=\'254988\' date=\'Jan 18 2011, 03:15 PM\']The best reason to do this is simply to mess with your opponents, and for those that say that it won't mess with a contestant who is any good in the first place, you really need to face the fact that most Jeopardy players have no idea what they are doing on their wagers in the final.[/quote]If you are making a Daily Double bet based upon whether you think you can cloud the brain of your opposition, you may as well holster your button and sit down, because you've lost the game right there. You are admitting that you can't beat the other two people on stage with you, at least not cleanly, and that you have to resort to trickery to put one over on them.[/quote]
I could also make the argument that not using every tool at your disposal is intentionally putting yourself at a competitive disadvantage. Granted, that argument would be pretty flimsy, but it's there.

Also, consider the opportunity cost of wagering $4,286 instead of $4,200. What exactly are you losing by introducing an additional element of chaos, even if the odds of it playing out in your favor are infinitesimal? If nothing else, it gets an eyeball or two to stick to the television screen longer, as people look up and think "Why the crap does he have $5,314?" Might as well try to make your half-hour of fame three or four seconds longer.

clemon79 · « **Reply #12 on:** January 20, 2011, 02:06:01 PM »

[quote name=\'Mr. Armadillo\' post=\'255115\' date=\'Jan 20 2011, 08:37 AM\']Granted, that argument would be pretty flimsy[/quote]
Yes.

Quote

Also, consider the opportunity cost of wagering $4,286 instead of $4,200. What exactly are you losing by introducing an additional element of chaos, even if the odds of it playing out in your favor are infinitesimal?

The equal possibility that *you* screw up the math instead?

Mr. Armadillo · « **Reply #13 on:** January 20, 2011, 02:41:18 PM »

But there's *twice* as much possibility one of my opponents screws up, because there's *two* of them and only one of me!

/no, I don't believe this either

Matt Ottinger · « **Reply #14 on:** January 20, 2011, 03:03:24 PM »

[quote name=\'Mr. Armadillo\' post=\'255125\' date=\'Jan 20 2011, 02:41 PM\']But there's *twice* as much possibility one of my opponents screws up, because there's *two* of them and only one of me!
/no, I don't believe this either[/quote]
Not that I'd ever do something that goofy, but if I did, I'm comfortable enough with my above-average math skills that I wouldn't consider there to be an "equal possibility" that I'd make a wagering mistake later because of a weird score. I mean, I don't know for certain that the guy beside me isn't a whiz himself, but I'd be comfortable thinking that I'm not going to screw it up, and he might.