Author Topic: Terrible late-game J! strategy (Read 7621 times)

davidbod · « **on:** February 11, 2011, 10:13:37 AM »

Watching a whole bunch of J! eps from the last 3 years on YouTube (thanks to user viddykiddy18), I'm amazed at how bad some of the contestants are at strategising the last couple of questions.

A typical one (with 'less than a miute' already called) had the leader on $19,500, and 2nd place had $10,400 (3rd place is far behind). Player 2 then hits DD and bets, reluctantly, $1000. He misses and, no surpise, time up is called and it's a lockout.

Surely you should either bet the farm (if you like the DD category more than your average FJ! performance) or $1 (if you don't).

Given how good the players are with their FJ! wagers, the often poor endgame strategy surprises me.

David

tvmitch · « **Reply #1 on:** February 11, 2011, 10:23:33 AM »

Not only bad wagering strategy in general, but it seems that contestants are reluctant to wager any significant dollar amount on a DD, especially late in the game. $2,000 is not a significant late-game wager in most cases, but really, that's just about the highest DD wager you see anymore. (Been watching a lot more J! lately as we get the kid's lunch packed for the next day.)

I've wondered if the average Double J! DD wager doubled since inflation (as it probably should have done), or been lower. It's certainly not higher.

You can recoup a lost $2K wager in one clue. I know there's a lot going on for contestants, but the strategy isn't well thought out in most cases.

Matt Ottinger · « **Reply #2 on:** February 11, 2011, 10:52:53 AM »

[quote name=\'davidbod\' post=\'256934\' date=\'Feb 11 2011, 10:13 AM\']A typical one (with 'less than a miute' already called) had the leader on $19,500, and 2nd place had $10,400 (3rd place is far behind). Player 2 then hits DD and bets, reluctantly, $1000. He misses and, no surpise, time up is called and it's a lockout.

Surely you should either bet the farm (if you like the DD category more than your average FJ! performance) or $1 (if you don't).[/quote]
A third alternative is discussed among Jeopardy fans, but it takes some awareness and some quick math skills. Using your example above, Player two should bet $650 and then miss on purpose. That leaves him with exactly half of Player 1's score. The idea being that in the final, Player 1 bets nothing (preserving a guaranteed payday) and Player 2 just has to get it right to claim his prize. Of course, that only works if it is, in fact, the last clue of he game, and you still have to get FJ right.

That gives you a better chance to win than a minimum bet that merely prevents a lockout. And you're right, if you like the category, going all in right then gives you the potential lead and a much better position in FJ. And you're also right that a lot of very smart people do not think about any of this when they get on the show.

clemon79 · « **Reply #3 on:** February 11, 2011, 01:17:27 PM »

[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' post=\'256936\' date=\'Feb 11 2011, 07:52 AM\']A third alternative is discussed among Jeopardy fans, but it takes some awareness and some quick math skills. Using your example above, Player two should bet $650 and then miss on purpose.[/quote]
I'm a big fan of any strategy that allows you to say "Who is your MOTHER, Trebek!" with absolutely no sense of irony.

Quote

And you're also right that a lot of very smart people do not think about any of this when they get on the show.

It bugs the S.O. (who has in fact passed the J! test) when I work out what the "logical" wagers are during the break before FJ. She doesn't like how the FJ wager is reduced to a mathematical exercise. I don't see how you *can't*, most of the time.

Kevin Prather · « **Reply #4 on:** February 11, 2011, 02:34:38 PM »

[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'256944\' date=\'Feb 11 2011, 10:17 AM\']It bugs the S.O. (who has in fact passed the J! test) when I work out what the "logical" wagers are during the break before FJ. She doesn't like how the FJ wager is reduced to a mathematical exercise. I don't see how you *can't*, most of the time.[/quote]
Well, that's what it is, ain't it?

clemon79 · « **Reply #5 on:** February 11, 2011, 02:38:12 PM »

[quote name=\'Kevin Prather\' post=\'256945\' date=\'Feb 11 2011, 11:34 AM\']Well, that's what it is, ain't it?[/quote]
In her eyes, no, you're supposed to wager solely on how comfortable you are with the category and not worry about all of that oogy mathy stuff. Apparently I'm taking all of the fun out of it.

I have long since learned that trying to get her to see reason about things like this never ends well, and so now more often than not I just do the math in my head.

Kevin Prather · « **Reply #6 on:** February 11, 2011, 03:27:10 PM »

[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'256946\' date=\'Feb 11 2011, 11:38 AM\']I have long since learned that trying to get her to see reason about things like this never ends well[/quote]
I guess that's the endpoint, and true in most relationships.

Well played, sir.

WhammyPower · « **Reply #7 on:** February 11, 2011, 03:41:47 PM »

[quote name=\'davidbod\' post=\'256934\' date=\'Feb 11 2011, 09:13 AM\']Surely you should either bet the farm (if you like the DD category more than your average FJ! performance) or $1 (if you don't).[/quote]
Except the minimum DD wager is $5.

clemon79 · « **Reply #8 on:** February 11, 2011, 03:41:52 PM »

[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' post=\'256936\' date=\'Feb 11 2011, 07:52 AM\']Of course, that only works if it is, in fact, the last clue of he game,[/quote]
Something I just thought of. More useful in DJ (mostly for this reason), but.

Is the "length" of the round consistent from show to show, or do they massage it for timing (for example, Trebek takes longer or shorter with the contestant chat segment) purposes? 'Cuz if you know it's going to be, say, six minutes, it seems like setting a countdown timer on your wristwatch would be a good idea, so you can do a time check in an event like this. Might not be EXACT, but it would be good enough to know within a clue or two when the buzzer is going to sound, and probably good enough to accurately judge this exact situation.

I realize I'm overthinking what is obviously a very fringe case, but it got me thinking and so I figure I'd ask.

clemon79 · « **Reply #9 on:** February 11, 2011, 03:43:26 PM »

[quote name=\'WhammyPower\' post=\'256954\' date=\'Feb 11 2011, 12:41 PM\']Except the minimum DD wager is $5.[/quote]
Says who? I could swear I've seen a $1 wager before. (I could be wrong, but I'd still like to know your source.)

Don Howard · « **Reply #10 on:** February 11, 2011, 04:03:56 PM »

[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'256956\' date=\'Feb 11 2011, 03:43 PM\'][quote name=\'WhammyPower\' post=\'256954\' date=\'Feb 11 2011, 12:41 PM\']Except the minimum DD wager is $5.[/quote]
Says who? I could swear I've seen a $1 wager before. (I could be wrong, but I'd still like to know your source.)
[/quote]
I can back up that $5 minimum for Daily Doubles. First here: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Can_you_bet_0_do...double_jeopardy
And in paragraph #5 of this: http://www.oddchange.com/jdoc/rules.html
Also, I recall a player trying to bet nothing many years ago. When told by Alex, "You can't", he said, "Then $5. The minimum".
There was also a College Tournament (2001 finals, I believe) when a player hit the DD and asked how little he could wager and was told (by one of his competitors) that it's $5.

clemon79 · « **Reply #11 on:** February 11, 2011, 04:22:42 PM »

[quote name=\'Don Howard\' post=\'256959\' date=\'Feb 11 2011, 01:03 PM\']I can back up that $5 minimum for Daily Doubles. First here: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Can_you_bet_0_do...double_jeopardy
And in paragraph #5 of this: http://www.oddchange.com/jdoc/rules.html
Also, I recall a player trying to bet nothing many years ago. When told by Alex, "You can't", he said, "Then $5. The minimum".
There was also a College Tournament (2001 finals, I believe) when a player hit the DD and asked how little he could wager and was told (by one of his competitors) that it's $5.[/quote]
'Fair 'nough, then. It is entirely possible that I misremembered.

davidbod · « **Reply #12 on:** February 11, 2011, 04:51:29 PM »

[quote name=\'Kevin Prather\' post=\'256945\' date=\'Feb 11 2011, 07:34 PM\'][quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'256944\' date=\'Feb 11 2011, 10:17 AM\']It bugs the S.O. (who has in fact passed the J! test) when I work out what the "logical" wagers are during the break before FJ. She doesn't like how the FJ wager is reduced to a mathematical exercise. I don't see how you *can't*, most of the time.[/quote]
Well, that's what it is, ain't it?
[/quote]

Except, of course, it doesn't have to be if the contestants don't know their opponents' scores, as happened in the UK version and, I'm guessing, in the US at some stage too?

What *really* ticks me off about FJ is that, from what I've read on Ken J's blog, the producers tell you to write Who is or What is ahead of time, in case you forget! Way to design out the whole point of the show! If yoy're gonna do that, why not ditch it entirely and reclaim a minute of game time from people just saying "What is..." 60 times.

clemon79 · « **Reply #13 on:** February 11, 2011, 05:08:31 PM »

[quote name=\'davidbod\' post=\'256962\' date=\'Feb 11 2011, 01:51 PM\']I'm guessing, in the US at some stage too?[/quote]
Never once. Which is why we found it so interesting when you guys did that over on your side of the pond.

Yes, private information nips that problem (if one were to consider it a problem) right in the bud, for the most part.

rjaguar3 · « **Reply #14 on:** February 11, 2011, 05:10:21 PM »

[quote name=\'davidbod\' post=\'256962\' date=\'Feb 11 2011, 03:51 PM\'][quote name=\'Kevin Prather\' post=\'256945\' date=\'Feb 11 2011, 07:34 PM\'][quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'256944\' date=\'Feb 11 2011, 10:17 AM\']It bugs the S.O. (who has in fact passed the J! test) when I work out what the "logical" wagers are during the break before FJ. She doesn't like how the FJ wager is reduced to a mathematical exercise. I don't see how you *can't*, most of the time.[/quote]
Well, that's what it is, ain't it?
[/quote]

Except, of course, it doesn't have to be if the contestants don't know their opponents' scores, as happened in the UK version and, I'm guessing, in the US at some stage too?

What *really* ticks me off about FJ is that, from what I've read on Ken J's blog, the producers tell you to write Who is or What is ahead of time, in case you forget! Way to design out the whole point of the show! If yoy're gonna do that, why not ditch it entirely and reclaim a minute of game time from people just saying "What is..." 60 times.
[/quote]

Having a player who would otherwise have won the game being ruled incorrect on account of not phrasing his response in the form of a question makes for bad television. (I'm trying to find the 1/1/86 clip of a woman who loses the game precisely for that reason, and Alex looks disappointed after he realizes the error and has to tell her that she has to be ruled incorrect.)

The Jeopardy! answer-and-question format is so well-entrenched in the popular perception of the show that it would simply be stupid to axe it.