Impossible Guess = Small Prizes?

[tvmitch]

Having a great time watching these Narz Concentration episodes on Buzzr. A very minor bit of a "spoiler" up ahead if you are not quite caught up yet.

On the Really Wild gimmick game, Jack says that contestants will win $250 if they match two wild cards, and if they match all four, they get $500 (win or lose).

Every time Jack has said that, I made an assumption and thought to myself: the odds of matching all four wild cards in one go is nearly impossible! They might as well offer a contestant a hundred thousand dollars for matching four wilds. On a board with no matches, if I have the math right, the chances of matching four wilds in one go would be (1/30) * (1/29) * (1/28) * (1/27), which is a very small chance indeed.

Now, the other day, I caught the first episode I've seen where a contestant matched two wild cards and won the $250. If you haven't seen this yet - upon turning over the second Wild card, a fanfare portion of the theme plays, applause applause, and a $250 prize card slides into the board. The important part here is that both wild cards are turned around at that point, the contestant has a guess at the puzzle, and play proceeds with two new calls, at which time they could call the other pair of Wilds and win another $250, totaling $500.

Perhaps I was alone on my incorrect assumption about needing to turn over all four wild cards in one go to earn the $500, but either way, it made me think - were any other shows out there that offered a too-small prize for a rare event, or vice versa?

An example might be the Natural Triple jackpot on Joker. I'm not sure how many slides were on those reels, but perhaps a Natural Triple was more worthy of a more expensive (or cheaper) prize.

(As a quick aside - if the person behind the Game Show Flashback channel on YouTube is on our board, thank you for taking the time to upload the new stuff from Buzzr for us Buzzr-challenged individuals!)

[TLEberle]

Math is not quite right—4/30 * 3/29 * 2/28 * 1/27. And that’s just a fresh board.

The chances of finding four wild cards to open the game are one in 27,405.

[JasonA1]

An example might be the Natural Triple jackpot on Joker. I'm not sure how many slides were on those reels, but perhaps a Natural Triple was more worthy of a more expensive (or cheaper) prize.

This post would indicate it's 13 slides per reel, and generally 2 of each category, with 3 jokers.

-Jason

[JMFabiano]

I think someone picked off all or most of the Wilds on the first episode of Classic Concentration, no? 

[Loogaroo]

Well... there's no rule saying you have to pick all four Wilds consecutively. Match two Wilds, you get $250. Match the other two later on, you get another $250. $250 + $250 = $500. That's probably the logic they were using, rather than the miracle shot of hitting them all on your first four picks.

That's the other thing - the odds go down if matches are made before you hit your first Wild. On a fresh board, the odds of picking two consecutive Wilds are 30*29/2 = 435:1. After one match, it's 28*27/2 = 378:1. After two matches, it's 325:1, and so on. And this assumes we're picking blindly all the time and not ruling out numbers that we've already seen. It's still a rarity, but I think $250 for a Wild match is pretty fair considering these variables.

[tvmitch]

Well... there's no rule saying you have to pick all four Wilds consecutively. Match two Wilds, you get $250. Match the other two later on, you get another $250. $250 + $250 = $500. That's probably the logic they were using, rather than the miracle shot of hitting them all on your first four picks.

Correct, this is what I tried to explain (poorly) in the original post. Based on the way Jack explained it, I had assumed the contestant would need to match all four in a row.

[Chuck Sutton]

Math is not quite right—4/30 * 3/29 * 2/28 * 1/27. And that’s just a fresh board.

The chances of finding four wild cards to open the game are one in 27,405.

Isn't it,f you can remember Johnny O's previews, 4/26 etc.

[Neumms]

...it made me think - were any other shows out there that offered a too-small prize for a rare event, or vice versa?

The Big Showdown's $10,000 on the first roll seemed a little thin. Aren't the odds 1/64, and wasn't it won only a couple times in the run?

[TLEberle]

1 in 36.

[Mr. Armadillo]

The $500 bonus for arranging all of the grocery items correctly in Hole In One (or Two) probably qualifies here, not so much for the long odds but for being peanuts compared to the car that is almost certainly already being awarded for putting from 18 inches away.