TPIR: Thoughts about the Showcase Showdown

[zachhoran]

[quote name=\'GS Warehouse\' date=\'Apr 7 2004, 11:07 PM\']
Geez, that guy got on Millionaire?! [/quote]
 It's that whole statistical outlier thing.

[Clay Zambo]

[quote name=\'tommycharles\' date=\'Apr 8 2004, 12:06 AM\'] I fail to see what would be wrong with having the 3 contestants do a 1-bid. [/quote]
 Nothing at all.  But it wouldn't be any more interesting than a standard one-bid, even if it were for a mo' 'spensive prize.  What makes the wheel work, I guess, is that it's a completely different game.  A palate-cleanser, if you will.

[Clay Zambo]

[quote name=\'clemon79\' date=\'Apr 4 2004, 10:36 PM\'] PJTP. I just SAID that. [/quote]
 Off-topic; I'm sorry.

What's "PJTP"?

Doltishly yours,
CZ

[zachhoran]

[quote name=\'Clay Zambo\' date=\'Apr 8 2004, 09:51 AM\'] [quote name=\'clemon79\' date=\'Apr 4 2004, 10:36 PM\'] PJTP. I just SAID that. [/quote]
Off-topic; I'm sorry.

What's "PJTP"?

Doltishly yours,
CZ [/quote]
 PJTP=POsting Just to Post. I'm not sure if someone on this board created it or it was created on another board and appears on other boards like this one.

[Don Howard]

[quote name=\'zachhoran\' date=\'Apr 8 2004, 09:58 AM\'] PJTP=Posting Just to Post. I'm not sure if someone on this board created it or it was created on another board and appears on other boards like this one. [/quote]
 I'll take that one. It was created by yours truly long ago and far away (approximately two months ago) on this very board.

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'Clay Zambo\' date=\'Apr 8 2004, 07:51 AM\'] What's "PJTP"?
 [/quote]
 It's what Zach does when he inserts some barely-relevant (if at all) asinine bit of trivia into a discussion, or one of his annoying nitpicks that also have no relevance to the discussion at large,  just so he can make sure no one questions his authority as the Greatest Game Show Mind Of Our Time.

[zachhoran]

[quote name=\'clemon79\' date=\'Apr 8 2004, 10:15 PM\'] [quote name=\'Clay Zambo\' date=\'Apr 8 2004, 07:51 AM\'] What's "PJTP"?
 [/quote]
It's what Zach does when he inserts some barely-relevant (if at all) asinine bit of trivia into a discussion, or one of his annoying nitpicks that also have no relevance to the discussion at large,  just so he can make sure no one questions his authority as the Greatest Game Show Mind Of Our Time. [/quote]
 We all know Steve Beverly is the Greatest Game SHow Mind of our Time

[Dbacksfan12]

[quote name=\'zachhoran\' date=\'Apr 8 2004, 10:20 PM\'] [quote name=\'clemon79\' date=\'Apr 8 2004, 10:15 PM\'] [quote name=\'Clay Zambo\' date=\'Apr 8 2004, 07:51 AM\'] What's "PJTP"?
 [/quote]
It's what Zach does when he inserts some barely-relevant (if at all) asinine bit of trivia into a discussion, or one of his annoying nitpicks that also have no relevance to the discussion at large,  just so he can make sure no one questions his authority as the Greatest Game Show Mind Of Our Time. [/quote]
We all know Steve Beverly is the Greatest Game SHow Mind of our Time [/quote]
 Hopefully I can say this without getting into too much trouble with the moderators.

Zach, get over yourself.  Each time you make an asinine post like this, you lessen what little credibility you may have left.  Most of the time, we don't give a damn if John Harlan announced the September 12, 1986 episode of Sale of the Century, nor do we care that AWOR aired "Tattletales" at 5:00 PM.  Your inane fandom probably even shocks Mr. Game Show.

Maybe I posted this because I'm sick of the garbage...or it could be that its 3:30.

[Craig Karlberg]

Let me say this to Zach in Mr. Game Show terms:

"Dig a hole & crawl in ZH".

Back on track here.  I think the Big Wheel is a great equalizer in terms of who gets to go to the Showcases.  Granted, the odds of even qualifying there is a mere 3:1, but more othen than not, the 3rd lowest winner of each usually winds up there most of the time anyway.

[Clay Zambo]

[quote name=\'Craig Karlberg\' date=\'Apr 9 2004, 03:48 AM\'] I think the Big Wheel is a great equalizer in terms of who gets to go to the Showcases.  Granted, the odds of even qualifying there is a mere 3:1, but more othen than not, the 3rd lowest winner of each usually winds up there most of the time anyway. [/quote]
 Really?  Then why not have the top winner from each half spin first, if that's the advantageous position.

Without opening a can of statistical worms, how often does the first spinner win at the Wheel?

[Matt Ottinger]

[quote name=\'Craig Karlberg\' date=\'Apr 9 2004, 04:48 AM\'] Granted, the odds of even qualifying there is a mere 3:1, but more othen than not, the 3rd lowest winner of each usually winds up there most of the time anyway. [/quote]
 This might be a semantic issue.  Technically, "third-lowest" would be the one of the three who won the MOST.

However if Craig is saying that the person who spins first is most likely to win, then he is wrong.  No matter how it may look to him, the player who spins last has a slight but distinct advantage, and over time, that person is simply going to win more often.

[ClockGameJohn]

[quote name=\'Clay Zambo\' date=\'Apr 9 2004, 09:38 AM\'] Without opening a can of statistical worms, how often does the first spinner win at the Wheel? [/quote]
Easy to open when you have a can-opener handy

To take a full Season of stats, Season 31's Showcase Showdowns looked like this:

First Spinner Wins: 103
Second Spinner Wins: 129
Third Spinner Wins: 118

However, for Season 32 thusfar:

First Spinner Wins: 79
Second Spinner Wins: 84
Third Spinner Wins: 99

This week past had 5 winners who spun first advance to the Showcase, while only 1 second spinner did so.  Only 2 of the 8 contestants who spun third advanced.  Certainly there will be weeks like this one.  But in the long run, on average, the third spinner will win most often.

Matt is totally correct.  I was the Top Winner in the first half, and spun last.  I did not even HAVE to spin, because the first two spinners went over.  Clearly, I had the advantage.

[quote name=\'Clay Zambo\' date=\'Apr 9 2004, 09:38 AM\']Then why not have the top winner from each half spin first, if that's the advantageous position.[/quote]

TNPiR '94  

[Matt Ottinger]

It's really interesting to me that over the course of the entire 31st season, it was the SECOND spinner who ended up doing the best. I would have thought that hundreds of attempts would have been enough to settle in to more predictable patterns.

Still, taking ALL the results CGJ gave us, that's:
29.7%  First Spinner Wins
34.8%  Second Spinner Wins
35.5%  Third Spinner Wins

I'm surprised to see the results to be as close as they are, but there again, that takes a little away from the argument that it's unfair for the top money winner to have merely been the one who was lucky enough to play the most valuable game.  The advantage you get isn't really huge, and of course you still have to have won your game to have earned it.

In other words, a little luck, a little strategy, a little skill.  Pretty much what TPIR is all about.

[ClockGameJohn]

It is interesting, Matt.

Season 30 was the same:

First Spinner Wins: 93
Second Spinner Wins: 133
Third Spinner Wins: 124

Although Season 29 followed the statistics:

First spinner wins: 92
Second spinner wins: 115
Third spinner wins: 121

I would agree that strategy has alot to do with it.  Did some of the second spinners in fact beat the first spinner, but didn't feel it was enough to make the Showcase, so spun again only to go over?  Never know.

With some more help from Scorpz' site, we also know this:

Automatic wins for third spinner - Season 29: 11
Automatic wins for third spinner - Season 30: 11
Automatic wins for third spinner - Season 31: 8
Automatic wins for third spinner - Season 32: 8

[Matt Ottinger]

Man, that's just astonishing.  With more than three and a half YEARS of results to look at, there appears to be no statistical difference at all between going second or going third. (28% - 36% - 36%)

Apparently, the only real advantage to going third as opposed to second is to not have to be troubled with a strategic decision.