Another Video-On-Demand thread

[roadgeek]

With the discussion about owning entire series of gameshows, I thought it would be relevant to bring up the idea of video-on-demand again. I haven't seen an in-depth discussion about it yet (and I've read through all the posts in this forum), so I thought I'd get one started with some of my ideas. DISCLAIMER: I am not an economist, nor have I ever taken any economics classes, and I am certainly not in the TV business, so my musings may end up having no attachment to reality.

I would like to see VOD become a reality someday. DVDs ("The Price Is Right, the Complete First Season") are simply not economically feasible due to how many discs would have to be released. VOD seems to offer more promise (no packaging, no hassling with retailers, etc.), but I realize that this won't happen unless media companies can make a large enough profit on it, and the initial costs to go into the system may be too much.

The cost of tranferring episodes to a VOD server, as well as the cost of the infrastructure needed for this system, may very well eat up all the profit, but if someone else takes on the cost, and makes their equipment available to the media companies, virtually for free, it will leave the companies with a huge profit margin. The generous offer could be made by colleges and universities, especially those with strong media departments. Much of the work could be done by students or graduate assistants, and the university could have unlimited access to the transferred libraries, while also making them available to the distributor for VOD. The media companies would also have (virtually) free digital transfers of their libraries, if they don't have them already. Everyone's happy!

Any ideas, comments? Those who have had actual training and experience in the field can set me straight on a few points, I'm sure.

[Ian Wallis]

I also hope we see a VOD system one day where you'd be able to call up virtually *any* show that still existed, but whether or not we'll ever get to that, who reallly knows?

Most cable companies are already doing VOD with certain movies, and I guess this could be the tip of the iceberg.  If this proves successful, more and more movies could be added to the system, and then eventually some of the most popular televison shows might be available (stuff like "The Sopranos" would likely have some interest).  It could snowball from there.

Would GSN consider something like this?  Well, it has been hinted at by "thericker" on the GSN boards, but he hasn't actually come out and said it would ever happen.

If you're looking for old television shows, I wonder how much the release of season-set DVDs might eat into something like this.  Years from now, would someone pay to see a VOD episode of "Alias", for example, when the first three seasons have been released on DVD?  Also, I guess VOD would not be possible for satellite dish owners.

[Matt Ottinger]

There's an article in Monday's (10/18) USA TODAY about the economic feasibility of television shows on DVD.  The article says that studios -- who already own the product being released -- reach profitability after only 13,000 copies sold.  That's why you're seeing a lot of surprisingly obscure and cultish series showing up on DVD, it's remarkably low-risk.

Video on demand for anything your fevered imagination could possibly demand is a pipe dream in the near future.  Just because technology exists for something doesn't mean the marketplace is going to see it happen.  Broadcast networks need to find a way to let people catch up to shows they might have missed within a window of a few weeks, and that usage is probably the next thing you'll see for VOD.  But if you're holding your breath for the day that you'll be able to dial up the March 15, 1984 episode of The Price Is Right, you're going to pass out.

[Dbacksfan12]

[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' date=\'Oct 18 2004, 01:34 PM\'] But if you're holding your breath for the day that you'll be able to dial up the March 15, 1984 episode of The Price Is Right, you're going to pass out.

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Hold on Matt. Wait for Zach to give us a summary of what happened that day.
It might be worth it.

[GS Warehouse]

[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' date=\'Oct 18 2004, 02:34 PM\'][Monday's (10/18) USA TODAY] says that studios -- who already own the product being released -- reach profitability after only 13,000 copies sold. ...

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[/quote]The theory that just there is a market for just about any prime time show of the past is about to be put to the ultimate test: God, the Devil, and Bob is coming out soon.

Heaven help us if Supertrain ever comes to DVD ...

ObGS: ... even if the Chain Reaction theme was heard on the show.

ObGSForum: FYI, Mark, it's Wuthrich, not Wuhtich.  (I won't send you to the TTD90 room for that, though; that happens to me all the time.)

[ChuckNet]

Heaven help us if Supertrain ever comes to DVD ...

At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised...what's next, Cop Rock: The Complete Series?

Chuck Donegan (The Illustrious "Chuckie Baby")

[roadgeek]

[quote name=\'Ian Wallis\' date=\'Oct 18 2004, 11:04 AM\']If you're looking for old television shows, I wonder how much the release of season-set DVDs might eat into something like this.  Years from now, would someone pay to see a VOD episode of "Alias", for example, when the first three seasons have been released on DVD?  Also, I guess VOD would not be possible for satellite dish owners.

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Good point.  Like books, music, and films, I believe that DVDs of many TV shows will likely go out of print once the demand is met.  VOD shows shouldn't have this particular problem.  As for satellite: I'm not sure what the best system medium would be to transfer the episodes.  This is pure speculation, but with how technology is advancing, it could possibly be more convenient to have most of our entertainment being delivered via the internet, or some other "umbrella" protocol.  Of course, this could take as long as a decade, or more.

[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' date=\'Oct 18 2004, 01:34 PM\']There's an article in Monday's (10/18) USA TODAY about the economic feasibility of television shows on DVD.
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Just because technology exists for something doesn't mean the marketplace is going to see it happen.  Broadcast networks need to find a way to let people catch up to shows they might have missed within a window of a few weeks, and that usage is probably the next thing you'll see for VOD.
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First, thanks for bringing up the article... I'll see if I can find a copy at the library.  I've always wondered how the TV-to-DVD market stayed profitable!

I completely agree with your statement that, "just because technology exists for something doesn't mean the marketplace is going to see it happen."  It will only happen if it is profitable... in fact, profitable enough to justify the PITA factor of managing it.  I honestly don't think VOD will ever bring in that much money per episode -- especially for game shows.  But that's why I'm playing around with the idea of a university partnership, where (virtually) all the costs will already be taken care of, and what's left for the media companies is (virtually) pure profit.  Even if it's not much, it could be enough to give these companies some additonal revenue for market expansion, or private jets, or whatever.  Contrast this to letting your analog library decay, and not making a nickel off of it, and it's there that I hope that VOD becomes, at the very least, a topic of discussion.  I wouldn't say that the "technology exists", though... it certainly does exist, but I don't feel that today's technology is cheap or stable enough for the potential size of a "VOD museum" -- in 10 years or so, I think it will.

You added that VOD may be practical for catching up on missed shows from a few weeks ago.  That sounds like a very practical application.

[Matt Ottinger]

[quote name=\'ChuckNet\' date=\'Oct 18 2004, 08:18 PM\']At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised...what's next, Cop Rock: The Complete Series?[/quote]
If it does come out, they'll only have to sell 12,999 more, 'cause I'll be first in line. I've had the complete series on tape for years.

ObGS:  Barbara Bosson played Pyramid.

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'roadgeek\' date=\'Oct 18 2004, 07:44 PM\']But that's why I'm playing around with the idea of a university partnership, where (virtually) all the costs will already be taken care of, and what's left for the media companies is (virtually) pure profit.

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I just want to know where you think this bottomless university money pit is for THEM to fund all of this.

[roadgeek]

Fair question.  First, just a reminder that, according to this idea, it would be a trade-off: the media company could use the digital footage stored at the university for VOD, and the university could also use the stored footage for its own use for free.  Just so that there's no misunderstanding at this point, the university wouldn't be bending over backwards to help out media companies without any compensation... it would just be more of a barter.  What if no university is interested in unlimitied access to a media library, though?  I'll get to that in a second.

You mentioned a "bottomless university money pit" -- it's true that the equipment that the university would have to buy and dedicate to storing and transferring the media would not be cheap today.  The cost of the technology would have to drop to a point where the required equipment is easily affordable (to a school, anyway), and that will take some time.

Lastly, the reason that I'm singling out universities is that they are the only institution that, I believe, would be interested in going along with such a venture (and also have the means to do so).  Media companies could do it in-house, but it will cut into their already small profits.  The work could be outsourced to another company, but that will also cut into the media company's profits, and the third party will probably have no interest in accessing a media library.  I have no idea why the government would want to get involved, so that leaves the colleges and universities (unless there are any other institutions that would be interested that I've overlooked).  To bring back the question asked earlier, what if no university is interested at all?  Then this particular plan fails -- maybe someone will come up with a Plan B.

Coming back to the real world, though: I believe that media companies, for right now, will either do the VOD work in-house, or pay a third party to do the work, and we will see a limited selection of VOD titles.

[uncamark]

I've seen some articles that the BBC is planning to digitize their *entire* library of hundreds of thousands of hours of programming and make it available on the net for free.  This will probably not happen for at least a couple of years--and I wonder if this godsend would be strictly for Brits only--they delayed webcasting their national radio networks for a long time because of arguments that they were not intended for international distribution.  (Obviously they don't have that problem now--and offer one-week archiving of most programming, including the stuff they don't web cast for rights reasons, like Paul Giambaccini's Saturday U.S. chart review show on Radio 2.)  Here's a 2003 BBC News page about this.

So don't get all excited about being able to access every Bruce Forsyth "Generation Game" or "TWL" ep just yet.

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'roadgeek\' date=\'Oct 18 2004, 11:40 PM\']The cost of the technology would have to drop to a point where the required equipment is easily affordable (to a school, anyway),

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And your basic fallacy still holds. NOTHING is EVER "easily affordable" to a school.

[roadgeek]

My fault, bad choice of words.  It may never be "easily affordable", but technology has been increasingly "more affordable" over time.

You mentioned that I made a fallacious argument... I'm going to assume you mean my statement that universities would have to pony up the money for equipment so that they can partner up with the media companies, but if you were referring to something different, let me know specifically and I'll either try to back it up properly or concede the discussion.  But one thing I've never said (or believed) is that universities are a "bottomless pit" of money -- I've watched my own alma mater struggle with finances year after year.  Not only do I not feel that universities have bales of money to throw around, but I also don't believe that these schools have any ethical obligation to enter these agreements, just as I don't believe that GSN has any ethical obligation to show only the things I like to watch -- I don't believe any institution has any obligation to obey my every whim, just in case people were starting to get that idea.

All I'm saying is if a school (particularly a media department) really wants to have unlimited access to a media library, and is willing to put up the funds -- somehow -- for the necessary equipment, they could work out an agreement with the company, if both sides wanted to.  If the school isn't interested, or can't fund the equipment (I freely admit, many won't be able to), then they don't have to have any agreement.  That's all.  It's just an opportunity for schools to have access to media libraries -- the schools can take it or leave it.  And if not one single institution of higher learning in the entire USA can put up the funding, then that's the end of this plan.

Now, will any school be willing to put up the money and labor to get that access, or be willing to raise the money somehow?  I don't know... it depends how badly the school wants it, just like anything else a school wants to purchase.  My own college wasn't wealthy, but it somehow found (or the department raised) the funds when it wanted to buy or do something, such as my music department purchasing another grand piano that it didn't absolutely need, or resurfacing the parking lots, which weren't that bad to begin with...  In these cases, we could have managed without any of these things, but the money was spent on them to improve either the quality of education (piano), or the quality of life (parking lot) -- and, from what I've heard from professors after I graduated, money was always pretty tight at my school.  I view a media library the same way... it's something that a school could agree to obtain to improve the quality of education of their media students and faculty, but only if the school or department feels that the quality of education would be increased enough to justify the expense.  And at this point, I can't say whether or not it's really worth it for a media department to have access to a TV media library: that judgement will have to be left to each person and school to decide for themselves.

(BTW, sorry if you're tired of the discussion already.  This debate is good practice for me, though.)

[MSTieScott]

I think a lot would depend on what the school could do with their new media library. I know at the college I went to, they had their own TV station that aired student-produced programming for about four hours a day, four days a week, and then just displayed a university "bulletin board" for all the rest of the time. If they could use the media library that they have access to to fill the rest of that time, then it might possibly make sense for them to do so.

Of course, if it's video-on-demand, then there's no need to fill dead air, is there?

I'm not entirely sure where advertising enters into this picture. I'm assuming there have to be commercials somewhere in order for the media companies to make money from their old libraries (viewers are too used to television being a "free" medium; I don't think they'd be willing to pay per program). I'm not sure how you could schedule commercials in such a wide range of shows from the past, but I could see running an ad or series of ads before the selected program began. If the schools could also get some of that ad time to promote their own programming or sell the time to on-campus groups or whatever, so that when students accessed the media library, they'd first be exposed to those ads, then the school might have a reason to want to acquire the media library.

Semi-off-topic: As an aspiring producer, I'm not a big fan of video-on-demand. If viewers can watch a wide range of older programs that they already know they'll like, then why would they bother with my new, unknown show?

--
Scott Robinson

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'MSTieScott\' date=\'Oct 19 2004, 04:49 PM\']Semi-off-topic: As an aspiring producer, I'm not a big fan of video-on-demand. If viewers can watch a wide range of older programs that they already know they'll like, then why would they bother with my new, unknown show?

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Um, 'cuz it's GOOD, maybe?

I have no problem with it for EXACTLY this reason. If it makes producers sit up and make DECENT programming instead of the crap filling much of the schedule, everyone wins.