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Author Topic: TPIR Impossibilities...  (Read 12999 times)

Robert Hutchinson

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TPIR Impossibilities...
« Reply #60 on: January 08, 2005, 08:46:38 PM »
If all the numbers in a Dice Game price are 3s and 4s, and a contestant always plays the odds, they stand a 100% chance of winning.

Lessee . . . assuming the numbers in Dice Game were randomly generated (which they aren't), if you always played the odds, your chances of a win would be (1/3 of 6/6) + (1/3 of 5/6) + (1/3 of 4/6) = 5/6, or 83.33333%. Applying a little common sense to the first and last numbers (which Dice Game contestants actually seem to be able to do most of the time) makes a win even more likely.
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Dbacksfan12

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« Reply #61 on: January 09, 2005, 02:27:27 AM »
[quote name=\'starcade\' date=\'Jan 7 2005, 08:59 PM\'](1/2)^5 = 1/32.
[/quote]
This was covered 5 pages ago; if not sooner.
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SRIV94

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TPIR Impossibilities...
« Reply #62 on: January 09, 2005, 04:30:10 PM »
[quote name=\'Dsmith\' date=\'Jan 9 2005, 01:27 AM\'][quote name=\'starcade\' date=\'Jan 7 2005, 08:59 PM\'](1/2)^5 = 1/32.
[/quote]
This was covered 5 pages ago; if not sooner.
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You can blame me for that one.  I didn't see GameShowSteve's post on the subject before I had posted my question to Starcade, which had prompted the response.  Mea culpa.

Doug
« Last Edit: January 09, 2005, 04:31:09 PM by SRIV94 »
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Matt Ottinger

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TPIR Impossibilities...
« Reply #63 on: January 13, 2005, 12:39:47 PM »
[quote name=\'SRIV94\' date=\'Jan 7 2005, 12:22 AM\']What I was thinking (which is probably dead wrong) is that someone who was comfortable enough with dice could skillfully roll a 1 or a 6 on command.  That's where I got the skill aspect.  Taking luck into the equation kind of went without saying, in my jaded and misguided view (but there are quite a number of TPiR games where luck and skill both play a part).[/quote]
I think you're asking a lot for an average person to handle unfamiliar, oversized dice and skillfully manipulate them to the desired result.  In discussions like this, it's a lot easier to assume that dice are random.

Quote
The main point that I was trying to make, though, is that you can't win "Dice Game" simply by walking up on stage (unlike "Half Off" [1/16 chance to win $10,000] or "Pass The Buck" [2/3 chance to win at least $1000; 1/6 to win a car] or "Let 'Em Roll" [$500 guaranteed] where you conceivably could).
Here, I guess it's a matter of semantics.  As far as I can tell, it's possible to win every single pricing game with some amount of luck, or as you put it "simply by walking up on stage".  In that sense, Half-Off is probably the WORST example, because you've only got a one in 16 chance to win with pure luck.  Double Prices and other games are fifty-fifty.

Dice Game is unusual (unique?) in that a contestant could conceivably win it without making a single decision.  If all of the player's rolls are either "1", "6" or the correct number, then a win is automatic.   Every other game that I can think of requires some sort of choice by a player, even a blind one.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2005, 12:41:06 PM by Matt Ottinger »
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SRIV94

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TPIR Impossibilities...
« Reply #64 on: January 13, 2005, 01:15:25 PM »
[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' date=\'Jan 13 2005, 11:39 AM\']In that sense, Half-Off is probably the WORST example, because you've only got a one in 16 chance to win with pure luck.  Double Prices and other games are fifty-fifty.

Dice Game is unusual (unique?) in that a contestant could conceivably win it without making a single decision.  If all of the player's rolls are either "1", "6" or the correct number, then a win is automatic.   Every other game that I can think of requires some sort of choice by a player, even a blind one.
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I see what you're saying.  

"Let 'Em Roll" is the best example of what I'm talking about--in that you get one roll no matter how badly you price the small prizes involved, and with that one roll you can't do any worse than win $500 (with a 1/32 chance of winning the car; worse than the 1/16 chance of winning $10,000 in "Half-Off" but there's no other guaranteed prize).  If the rolls in "Let 'Em Roll" were ALL earned, then that would NOT be an example of a game you can win "simply by walking up on stage."  Contrast that with "Five Price Tags," in which you cannot win the car without guessing "true or false" correctly for at least one of the small prizes, then you have to guess the correct price of the car.

As you say, it's all semantics.  Yes, almost all TPiR games involve choices in some way, shape or form, but I consider "picking a number between 1 and 6 where cash or a car may be hidden" to be a less strenuous exercise (requires complete luck) than picking whether a jacuzzi costs $4,367 or $5,219 (requires some degree of brainwork, but people often luck into guessing correctly).

I guess at this point we agree to disagree?  :)

Doug
« Last Edit: January 13, 2005, 01:24:06 PM by SRIV94 »
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Matt Ottinger

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TPIR Impossibilities...
« Reply #65 on: January 13, 2005, 01:52:55 PM »
[quote name=\'SRIV94\' date=\'Jan 13 2005, 02:15 PM\']As you say, it's all semantics.  Yes, almost all TPiR games involve choices in some way, shape or form, but I consider "picking a number between 1 and 6 where cash or a car may be hidden" to be a less strenuous exercise (requires complete luck) than picking whether a jacuzzi costs $4,367 or $5,219 (requires some degree of brainwork, but people often luck into guessing correctly).

I guess at this point we agree to disagree?  :)[/quote]
Well, kinda, I guess.  I don't see how a game like Double Prices requires some degree of brainwork.  It requests some, and you'll have a better chance to win if you use it.  But if the player doesn't have any clue, then there's still a completely random one in two chance that she'll win anyway.   In that sense, there's no difference at all between pointing to $4,367 as the price of the jacuzzi and pointing to "3" as the number that hides the car.

To me, the difference between a game of total or almost-total luck and a game that gives you a choice is that a good player might LOSE a game of luck despite doing everything right.
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SRIV94

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TPIR Impossibilities...
« Reply #66 on: January 13, 2005, 02:52:43 PM »
[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' date=\'Jan 13 2005, 12:52 PM\']To me, the difference between a game of total or almost-total luck and a game that gives you a choice is that a good player might LOSE a game of luck despite doing everything right.
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Well said.  From that standpoint, you are absolutely correct.

You know, you oughta go on a game show.  Maybe a couple.  You got the smarts.  :)

Doug
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"When you see the crawl at the end of the show you will see a group of talented people who will all be moving over to other shows...the cameramen aren't are on that list, but they're not talented people."  John Davidson, TIME MACHINE (4/26/85)

aaron sica

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TPIR Impossibilities...
« Reply #67 on: January 13, 2005, 03:02:20 PM »
[quote name=\'SRIV94\' date=\'Jan 13 2005, 02:52 PM\']You know, you oughta go on a game show.  Maybe a couple.  You got the smarts.  :)

Doug
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He probably should have went on that "Sale of the Century" show...Too bad they don't make it any more...;)
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J.R.

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« Reply #68 on: January 13, 2005, 03:13:28 PM »
[quote name=\'aaron sica\' date=\'Jan 13 2005, 03:02 PM\'][quote name=\'SRIV94\' date=\'Jan 13 2005, 02:52 PM\']You know, you oughta go on a game show.  Maybe a couple.  You got the smarts.  :)

Doug
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He probably should have went on that "Sale of the Century" show...Too bad they don't make it any more...;)
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Hey, I'll bet Matt could of really given that Ken Jennings a real run for his money! Too bad Ken's been defeated...

-Joe R.
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Jimmy Owen

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« Reply #69 on: January 13, 2005, 06:14:27 PM »
[quote name=\'JRaygor\' date=\'Jan 13 2005, 03:13 PM\'][quote name=\'aaron sica\' date=\'Jan 13 2005, 03:02 PM\'][quote name=\'SRIV94\' date=\'Jan 13 2005, 02:52 PM\']You know, you oughta go on a game show.  Maybe a couple.  You got the smarts.  :)

Doug
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He probably should have went on that "Sale of the Century" show...Too bad they don't make it any more...;)
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Hey, I'll bet Matt could of really given that Ken Jennings a real run for his money! Too bad Ken's been defeated...

-Joe R.
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Well, I know for a fact that Matt has had every answer to every question ever asked on "Quizbusters."
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Kevin Prather

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« Reply #70 on: January 13, 2005, 07:11:06 PM »
And if that falls through, I hear Rogaine is looking for prospective spokesmen.

*runs far away*
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Matt Ottinger

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TPIR Impossibilities...
« Reply #71 on: January 13, 2005, 09:49:30 PM »
Banned.

All of you.  Banned.
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SRIV94

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TPIR Impossibilities...
« Reply #72 on: January 13, 2005, 10:02:59 PM »
[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' date=\'Jan 13 2005, 08:49 PM\']Banned.

All of you.  Banned.
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Geez--a guy tries to pay you a simple compliment.  Hmpfh!  :)

Doug
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"When you see the crawl at the end of the show you will see a group of talented people who will all be moving over to other shows...the cameramen aren't are on that list, but they're not talented people."  John Davidson, TIME MACHINE (4/26/85)

Robert Hutchinson

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TPIR Impossibilities...
« Reply #73 on: January 13, 2005, 11:34:34 PM »
[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' date=\'Jan 13 2005, 09:49 PM\']Banned.

All of you.  Banned.
[/quote]

What, not even a home game?
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Dbacksfan12

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TPIR Impossibilities...
« Reply #74 on: January 14, 2005, 03:16:01 PM »
[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' date=\'Jan 13 2005, 09:49 PM\']Banned.

All of you.  Banned.
[/quote]
Uh oh. And I just sent you the Bosley Hair Restoration kit yesterday.
Was a pleasure.
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