Deal or No Deal taping. (No game play spoilers)

[cmjb13]

Well, a full day of taping Deal or No Deal is in the books. Don't worry. No game play results are divulged.

From what I could see, little changed from the rehearsal.

Contestant chooses 1 briefcase, which contains dollar amounts ranging from .01 to $1M. Several suitcases are then revealed (I believe 6 initially). After each time the last briefcase is revealed (based on how many the contestant has to open) an offer is made by the "bank" via phone call to buy back the briefcase. The offer is based on how many of the higher prized amounts are still left on the board. Game continues until either contestant risks the final remaining suitcase or takes an early deal offered by the "bank" by pressing a red button.

It took a little more than 2 hours to tape 1 episode. It should be much better in edited form. Now I know what those Weakest Link marathon tapings must have been like.

5 Episodes in all (over several days) were taped. Not sure of the order of airing, but sometime during the run, there will be a $10,000 "Lucky Case" sweepstakes sponsored by Capital One. Not sure how that will work.

I must admit the contestants were very perky and enthusiastic. The amount of audience involvement was quite surprising.

There were 3 former Barker's Beauties as models on the show. They are representing suitcases 3, 5, and 9. They, as well as other models, do speak briefly with the contestant/Howie before opening their respective case.

I can see the Greed Syndrome occurring where contestants would never go for the $1M instead opting for a huge cash sure deal.

I hope it's given a chance.

Hope it does well.

[Matt Ottinger]

[quote name=\'cmjb13\' date=\'Nov 6 2005, 11:27 AM\']I can see the Greed Syndrome occurring where contestants would never go for the $1M instead opting for a huge cash sure deal.[/quote]
That depends a lot on how the Bank offers are made.  The people running the Bank have to come up with a number each time that looks good but not quite good enough so that the contestant keeps playing to the end.

Also, remember that in this show, the producers can't artificially hold out the possibility of winning a million until the very end.  It's possible that the $1M briefcase is revealed very early and out of the game right away.  

I think greed (small-g greed, not Woolery Greed) is what keeps a contestant IN this game until the end.  Psychologically, the Bank offer is asking you whether you consider yourself to be lucky or unlucky.  The only reason you accept the Bank offer is because you believe (with absolutely no evidence either way) that you've chosen a briefcase that's worth less.  How many people with the ego to want to be on a game show are going to do that?

[JasonA1]

How many people with the ego to want to be on a game show are going to do that?

Very true. A lot of times on shows contestants don't take the necessary step back of "hey, I could have a guaranteed $20,000. I only have a slight chance to win more" that causes game stops. Just look at Greed. Or even some instances on The Price is Right - most notably in my mind, the reams of players who give up $1,000 in Punch-a-Bunch.

-Jason

[Jimmy Owen]

Back in the early '60s Hugh Downs used to do a half-hour episode of "Concentration" in 28 minutes.  It was probably a breeze after anchoring "Today" for two hours earlier that day.

[Matt Ottinger]

[quote name=\'Jimmy Owen\' date=\'Nov 6 2005, 03:02 PM\']Back in the early '60s Hugh Downs used to do a half-hour episode of "Concentration" in 28 minutes.  It was probably a breeze after anchoring "Today" for two hours earlier that day.[/quote]
I think you absolutely eliminate a lot of what makes game shows fun by producing them in something other than 'real time', nit to mention the money you save in production costs.  I don't see anything about DoND that would require such a lengthy production time (it's a very simple game) except an obsessive desire to make it look absolutely flawless and thereby removing all the spontaneity and live "feel" to it.

Thing is, there aren't too many presenters like Hugh Downs was who can roll with whatever happens and make something out of it, and that's not the skill anyone's hiring anymore, though it's certainly a strength Howie brings to DoND.

[cmjb13]

[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' date=\'Nov 6 2005, 10:59 AM\']Also, remember that in this show, the producers can't artificially hold out the possibility of winning a million until the very end.  It's possible that the $1M briefcase is revealed very early and out of the game right away. 

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You are absolutely correct. I was speaking only if the $1M was not revealed until towards the end of the game.

[Matt Ottinger]

[quote name=\'cmjb13\' date=\'Nov 6 2005, 09:42 PM\'][quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' date=\'Nov 6 2005, 10:59 AM\']Also, remember that in this show, the producers can't artificially hold out the possibility of winning a million until the very end.  It's possible that the $1M briefcase is revealed very early and out of the game right away.  [/quote]
You are absolutely correct. I was speaking only if the $1M was not revealed until towards the end of the game.[/quote]
In which case you're absolutely correct.  Very late in the game, there are definitely scenarios where I can see people bailing even with the million still out there.

[Kevin Prather]

Over in Palace, we had one case where the last two remaining briefcases were the $2 million and some small number. The bank offer HAD to be worth over a million. Alex might remember this. Alex?

[Fedya]

[quote name=\'JasonA1\' date=\'Nov 6 2005, 12:00 PM\']

How many people with the ego to want to be on a game show are going to do that?

Very true. A lot of times on shows contestants don't take the necessary step back of "hey, I could have a guaranteed $20,000. I only have a slight chance to win more" that causes game stops. Just look at Greed. Or even some instances on The Price is Right - most notably in my mind, the reams of players who give up $1,000 in Punch-a-Bunch.

-Jason

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Sorry to be pedantic, but you'd be very surprised to know that if you get four punches in Punch-a-Bunch, and the first ist $1000, it actually is in your best interest to give it back: the probabilities favor winning at least $1000 anyhow.

After the first pull, there are 10 each of the $50, $100, $250, and $500 cards remaining, as well as 4 $1000, 3 $5000, and 2 $10000 cards.  The probability of not getting any of the $1K or more cards is:

40/49 * 39/48 * 38/47 = 53.626%, which means that the other 46+ percent of the time you will get a $1K or better card, with the probabilities as follows:

Exactly one $1K or better card: 40/49 * 39/48 * 9/47 * 3 (since the card can be any of the second, third, or fourth punches) = 38.102%

Two $1K or better cards: 40/49 * 9/48 * 8/47 * 3 = 7.816%

All three punches $1K or better: 9/49 * 8/48 * 7/47 = 0.455%

However, there are those 5 pesky little "second chance cards".  There's the possibility of getting one of those, and then punching a $1K card.  (Didn't that just happen last week?)  The probability of this happening is 40/49 * 39/48 * 5/47 * 9/46 * 3 = 4.141%.

This, added to the 46.373% of getting a straight $1K without the second chance, already puts you over the 50% mark.

(Also, thanks to the second chance cards, the average expected value of any one punch is over $1K....)

[Fedya]

(Continuing from last post)

The expected average value of a punch is also greater than $1K, as well.  With the 49 remaining cards, the total value of them is:

(10*50) + (10*100) + (10* 250) + (10*500) + (4*1000) + (3*5000) + (2*1000) = 48000

The mean value is 48000/49 = 979.  However, five of those cards are second chance cards, which means the value is (roughly) the 979 plus the amount on the second chance card.  So, we can make a rough estimate of the average value of a punch as (48000+5*979)/49, which is about $1079.

(Note that this average value analysis would also tell you the average expected value of your winnings in Spelling Bee is always maximized by going on, even if it's no longer possible to spell out the word CAR, thanks to the existence of the two automatic win cards.)

<announcer voice>

Closed captioning for this episode of "Pedants play the Price is Right" sponsored by....

</announcer voice>

[Brig Bother]

[quote name=\'whoserman\' date=\'Nov 7 2005, 03:42 AM\']Over in Palace, we had one case where the last two remaining briefcases were the $2 million and some small number. The bank offer HAD to be worth over a million.

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It doesn't at all. A crafty banker would have offered something in the $750-800,000 range, knowing full well that the prospect of losing three-quarters of a million is more of a disaster than winning two million is a good thing. If you see what I mean.

[Craig Karlberg]

The red button used when a player decides to take the bamk's offer sounds similarly like the bailout option on Winning Lines.  The differemce is in Lines, you're racing against the clock whereas in DoND, you're playing against "the house's(or should I say the "bank's" & possibly other people's) money".  Intresting to see where & when its used.

[zachhoran]

[quote name=\'Fedya\' date=\'Nov 6 2005, 11:18 PM\']


However, there are those 5 pesky little "second chance cards".  There's the possibility of getting one of those, and then punching a $1K card.  (Didn't that just happen last week?)  The probability of this happening is 40/49 * 39/48 * 5/47 * 9/46 * 3 = 4.141%.

This, added to the 46.373% of getting a straight $1K without the second chance, already puts you over the 50% mark.

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The math is right for this example, but there are only four second chance cards in Punch-a-Bunch.

[cmjb13]

[quote name=\'Craig Karlberg\' date=\'Nov 7 2005, 05:15 AM\']The red button used when a player decides to take the bamk's offer sounds similarly like the bailout option on Winning Lines.  The differemce is in Lines, you're racing against the clock whereas in DoND, you're playing against "the house's(or should I say the "bank's" & possibly other people's) money".  Intresting to see where & when its used.

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The red button used to take the deal is offered to the contestant every time a bank offer is made.

If a player decides to pass on the deal, they have to open X number of cases (depending on how far into the game they are), before the next offer is made.

[tvwxman]

[quote name=\'cmjb13\' date=\'Nov 7 2005, 10:03 AM\']The red button used to take the deal is offered to the contestant every time a bank offer is made.

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Why is this necessary? Isn't declaring "Deal" or "No Deal" the essence of the game? Have other versions added a big flashy button for dramatics?