Game Strategy

[Gromit]

[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' date=\'Dec 20 2005, 08:58 PM\']If I understand you right, I think you're saying that you'd bail when you got to the point that there was only one huge case left.  That's actually a pretty good strategy, since that lone case is likely still going to be enough to create a large bank.  Of course, depending on what round you're in, it might be possible that you'll be forced to reveal all the huge cases before you get your next offer.

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Yes, you understand my point, it's the same as in the other thread you posted questioning tonight's strategy. The guy had 2 big cases left, but only had to select one. It was silly to stop then, because he had a tremendous shot at removing the one small case, leaving him with a guaranteed huge payday. At worst, his next offer was going to be very near the one he took.

I think based on the number of cases and the values, that you can get to the point of picking single cases every time unless you have the worst luck in the world. And if you can do that, it's entirely within your control, and you can guarantee that you'll get a great payout every single time.

[MrBuddwing]

Now, as for Tuesday night's game in which the Banker offered the contestant $240,000, I was practically screaming at the TV: "TAKE IT! TAKE IT!" The contestant had already blown his chance for the $1,000,000. The highest amount of money he could have won was $500,000, he's offered slightly less than half that as a sure thing, and he *doesn't* take it? What a maroon! (Yes, "maroon." I'm trying to be polite.)

[BrandonFG]

Does Howie know what's in the briefcases, or is he told via IFB or something? I find it hard to believe that it's coincidental that he says "Please let there be $300 in that case!" then BAM! $300! Then the same exact thing for the $750 briefcase, which was on the next pick.

Side note: It's funny seeing the rooting section give "hand pounds" to Howie. Yeah, I know it's b/c Howie hates shaking hands, but it's funny seeing a 50- or 60-something relative awkwardly hand pound like teenagers. :-)

[Craig Karlberg]

I noticed that too in regards to those case values.  It's like he's psychic or something even though he "clains" he doesn't know what's in the player's case or the ones the models are holding.  If he did, then that might lead to an investigation as to who "leaked" the values out there beforehand.

[Unrealtor]

[quote name=\'fostergray82\' date=\'Dec 21 2005, 02:49 AM\']Does Howie know what's in the briefcases, or is he told via IFB or something? I find it hard to believe that it's coincidental that he says "Please let there be $300 in that case!" then BAM! $300! Then the same exact thing for the $750 briefcase, which was on the next pick.

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In both cases, it was the lowest value left on the board, as I recall. I don't think it was anything more than coincidence, or, at worst, a retake.

[xibit777]

[quote name=\'MrBuddwing\' date=\'Dec 21 2005, 03:32 AM\']Now, as for Tuesday night's game in which the Banker offered the contestant $240,000, I was practically screaming at the TV: "TAKE IT! TAKE IT!" The contestant had already blown his chance for the $1,000,000. The highest amount of money he could have won was $500,000, he's offered slightly less than half that as a sure thing, and he *doesn't* take it? What a maroon! (Yes, "maroon." I'm trying to be polite.)

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Well that's up for judgement.  Basically the guy had 3 boxes that were more than 240k and only 1 box less.   That's 75% chance of making more money if you give up the offer.   In the end, he was right.  He was extremely unlucky just like he had said.   The odds of having that 10k in his box were very very poor.   Do this with a friend, pick three numbers between 1-4 and ask your friend to choose a number and see how much you can match.  You'll match a surprising amount of times and that was his odds to make more money.  

Personally I would have taken 1 more box after there were 3 left to try to get rid of the 10k.  If I couldn't have gotten rid of the 10k, I would have quit when there was 1 high number and 10k left.    Yes you lose a lot of money from the banker, but you also have a chance to knock out that 10k and get a HUGE payday.

[DjohnsonCB]

Making the right decision on whether or not to take a specific deal would seem to depend on how much one believes in an old moral once offered by that famed spinner of fables, Aesop:  Never turn down a sure thing for a possibility.

[Robert Hutchinson]

[quote name=\'xibit777\' date=\'Dec 21 2005, 02:44 PM\']Well that's up for judgement.  Basically the guy had 3 boxes that were more than 240k and only 1 box less.   That's 75% chance of making more money if you give up the offer.   In the end, he was right.  He was extremely unlucky just like he had said.   The odds of having that 10k in his box were very very poor.   Do this with a friend, pick three numbers between 1-4 and ask your friend to choose a number and see how much you can match.  You'll match a surprising amount of times and that was his odds to make more money.[/quote]

I ran this experiment, and after about five hours, I was indeed astonished to find that I had a 74% chance of matching my friend! (Plus or minus 2%.)

Oh, wait, I misspoke. My ex-friend.